年尺度地震预测模型的国际研究现状

对未来1年内发生强震的预测在做好备灾应急准备和防震减灾工作上具有重要的现实需求.为反映近年来国际上关于1年尺度地震预测模型研究的进展,本文系统地整理了地震的统计概率预测模型、物理预测模型和混合预测模型,并从方法原理、预测效能评价、部署应用等角度进行了梳理.研究表明,目前国际上发展的1年尺度地震预测模型及其效能评价使用的参考模型的总体数量较少、建模原理主要基于G-R关系等统计学基本定律,显示该领域在基础理论架构、关键技术体系上并未足够成熟,这可能与相应的地震发生机理解释尚不完善、建立数理化的预测模型尚有困难等因素有关.     

生态服务价值与方法研究

1Ecosystemservicesandtheirvalueoftheworld1.1EcosystemservicesHuman societies derive many essential goods from natural ecosystems, including seafood, game animals, fodder, fuelwood, timber, and pharmaceutical products (Constanza, 1997). These goods represent important and familiar parts of the economy. What has been less appreciated until recently is that natural ecosystems also perform fundamental life-support services without which human civilizations would cease to thrive. These include the…     

P wave velocity structure of upper and middle crust beneath the Three Gorges reservoir dam and adjacent regions

The three-dimensional P wave velocity structures of upper and middle crust beneath the Three Gorges reservoir dam and adjacent regions were reconstructed by means of the seismic tomography, using the absolute P-arrivals from the events observed by the Three Gorges seismic network. Our preliminary study of the deep structure shows: (1) the lithology of the Huangling anticline, integral and highly solidified, exhibits a uniformity. Down to a depth of 20 km, the Huangling anticline still shows high-velocity anomalies. Note that the characteristics of the velocity images with the different depths are not the same; (2) the depth of the sedimentary rocks beneath the entire Zigui basin is not constant, which is less than 6 km; (3) the top boundary of the crystalline basement varies from 0 to 7 km, whereas the bottom one between 14 and 16 km; (4) the partially molten substances of the upper mantle are located in the Badong-Zigui and its adjacent regions as well as nearby Peishi area. The development and evolution of the current tectonics are associated with the cooling and solidifying process of the molten substances within the upper mantle; (5) the different velocity structures of the deep crust in both east and west side of the Jiuwanxi fault are to be investigated in order to understand the origin of gravitational gradient zone in the Three Gorge areas; and (6) the velocities within the upper crust would be affected by reservoir water permeability. Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 40574039), National Key Technology R& D Program (Grant No. 2008BAC38B02)     

A review of advances in China’s flash flood early-warning system

This paper summarizes the main flash flood early-warning systems of America, Europe, Japan, and Taiwan China and discusses their advantages and disadvantages. The latest development in flash flood prevention is also presented. China’s flash flood prevention system involves three stages. Herein, the warning methods and achievements in the first two stages are introduced in detail. Based on the worldwide experience of flash flood early-warning systems, the general research idea of the third stage is proposed from the viewpoint of requirements for flash flood prevention and construction progress of the next stage in China. Real-time dynamic warning systems can be applied to the early-warning platform at four levels (central level, provincial level, municipal level, and county level) . Through this, soil moisture, peak flow, and water level can be calculated in real-time using distributed hydrological models, and then flash flood warning indexes can be computed based on defined thresholds of runoff and water level. A compound warning index (CWI) can be applied to regions where rainfall and water level are measured by simple equipment. In this manner, flash-flood-related factors such as rainfall intensity and antecedent and cumulative rainfall depths can be determined using the CWI method. The proposed methodology for the third stage could support flash flood prevention measures in the 13th 5-Year Plan for Economic and Social Development of the People’s Republic of China (2016–2020). The research achievements will serve as a guidance for flash flood monitoring and warning as well as flood warning in medium and small rivers.     

Heavy metals in sediments and their bioaccumulation in <Emphasis Type="Italic">Phragmites australis</Emphasis> in the Anzali wetland of Iran

Accumulation of metals in both sediments and Phragmites australis organs was studied. Samples were collected from seven stations located in Anzali wetland, Iran. The samples were analyzed by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). The results showed that concentration of the studied metals (except As and Cd) were higher in sediments than in P. australis organs. Metal accumulation was found to be significantly (P <0.05) higher in roots than in above-ground organs of P. australis. The bioaccumulation factor (BAF) and the transfer factor (TF) also verified the highest rate of metal accumulation in roots and their reduced mobility from roots to the above-ground organs. Pearson correlation coefficient showed significant relationships between metal concentrations in sediments and those in plant organs. It should be pointed out that sediment and plant samples exhibited higher metal concentrations in eastern and central parts than in western and southern parts of the wetland. The mean concentrations of all studied elements (except for Fe, V and Al) were higher in these sediment samples than in the Earth’s crust and shale. High accumulation of metals in P. australis organs (roots and shoots) is indicative of their high bioavailability in sediments of the wetland. The correlation between metal concentrations in sediments and in P. australis indicates that plant organs are good bioindicators of metal pollution in sediments of Anzali wetland.     

Fractal-like adsorption kinetics of Pb^2＋ in rocks

The adsorption kinetics of Pb^2＋ in rocks has been studied using ion selective electrodes and atomic absorption spectrophotometer. The results showed that the adsorption process is a fractal-like reaction. The adsorption rate was relatively high before 30 minutes, and then dropped. The saturated adsorption capacity （a） of Pb^2＋ and kinetic parameters （b, a, D and k） increased with increasing initial concentrations of Pb^2＋. These parameters （except a） decreased while Na^＋ was present in the solution. Furthermore, the smaller the rocks were in grain size, the bigger these kinetic parameters would be, though the parameter a was almost constant.     

Suitability analysis for sand and gravel extraction site location in the context of a sustainable development in the surroundings of Zaragoza (Spain)

Zaragoza city is located in the central Ebro Basin, in the Iberian Peninsula. The fluvial terraces formed by the Ebro River present a valuable resource of sand and gravel deposits. However, taking advantage of these available resources implies conflicts with other land use interests like urban and industrial development as well as agricultural use, which has also traditionally occupied the alluvial terraces. These deposits represent a substantial groundwater resource that should be preserved for future generations. The development of spatial decision support systems (SDSS) has greatly assisted efforts for solving land-use conflicts. These systems combine the benefits of geographic information systems (GIS) and decision support methodologies and are therefore suitable to manage sustainable development of urban areas. In this contribution, an extraction suitability map taking into consideration a variety of environmental criteria is created with the help of a SDSS. The method used is the analytical hierarchy process which is integrated in ArcGIS. Areas most suitable to sand and gravel extraction are located in the high terraces, and in those terraces covered by pediments where the thickness of resource is relatively high. These areas are far from valuable natural areas, outside areas most vulnerable to groundwater contamination, and beneath soils with poor irrigation characteristics.     

2-D deformation analysis of a half-space due to a long dip-slip fault at finite depth

Closed form analytical expressions of stresses and displacements at any field point due to a very long dip-slip fault of finite width buried in a homogeneous, isotropic elastic half-space, are presented. Airy stress function is used to derive the expressions of stresses and displacements which depend on the dip angle and depth of the upper edge of the fault. The effect of dip angle and depth of the upper edge of the fault on stresses and displacements is studied numerically and the results obtained are presented graphically. Contour maps for stresses and displacements are also presented. The results of Rani and Singh (1992b) and Freund and Barnett (1976) have been reproduced.     

Timeslot scheduling of inter-satellite links based on a system of a narrow beam with time division

An inter-satellite link (ISL) can enhance the performance of a global navigation satellite system. The system of narrow beams with time division is being increasingly used for ISLs. ISLs improve the performance of global navigation satellite systems via ranging and communication between satellites. When there are fewer antenna beams than targets, how to schedule timeslots for inter-satellite links to better perform the function of ISLs can become a problem. We describe the timeslot scheduling problem and propose a new method based on grouping to solve this problem of obtaining more range observations in a short time and communicating with a short delay between satellites and facilities. A series of 10,080 benchmarks of a typical constellation of a global navigation satellite system was run to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed method. The regression cycle of constellations under test lasted approximately 7 days. The proposed schedule has a communication delay of less than 10 s and obtains more than nine different range observations in 60 s. Results show that the method effectively solves the scheduling problem and increases the scheduling success ratio remarkably.     

The Characteristic Patterns of Macrofaunal Fouling Assemblages in Nearshore Waters of the South China Sea

The spatio-temporal patterns of macrofaunal fouling assemblages were quantitatively investigated in the nearshore waters of the South China Sea. The work was undertaken by deploying seasonal panels at two sites (H-site, L-site) for one year, and the fouling communities on the panels were examined and analyzed. The results indicated that species composition of assemblages was obviously different between the two sites. At both sites the assemblages were characteristic with solitary dominant species throughout the year, with Amphibalanus reticulates dominating at H-site and Hydroides elegans at L-site. Shannon index and biomass of the assemblages varied with depth and season at both sites. At H-site the total biomass in summer and autumn were significantly higher than those in spring and winter, while at L-site the assemblage biomass also differed significantly among the four seasons, and the greatest biomass occurred at the depth of 2.0 m in winter. The abundance of all seasonal samples in non-metric multidimensional scaling was clustered as one group at L-site and three groups at H-site. The environmental factors were more likely to be related to the variation of fouling assemblages. Furthermore, it also suggests that in tropical seas the integrated adaptability would qualify a species for dominating a fouling assemblage despite its short life cycle, rather than the usually assumed only species with long life span. This study reveals the complexity and characteristic dynamics of macrofaunal fouling assemblages in the tropical habitats, and the results would provide valuable knowledge for biodiversity and antifouling research.