多元门限回归模型的一种建模方法

本文根据门限自回归模型的基本思想[1]，提出一种多元门限回归模型的建模方法。其特点是充分考虑了预报系统中某些特殊预报因子突变点对预报关系的改变作用。数值实例表明，该模型在模拟和预报精度上比一般线性逐步回归模型有一定程度的提高。     

Defining the range of ecological shelter zones in the shore zone of Three Gorges Reservoir,China

To maintaining a health ecological environment in Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) area, ecological shelter zones (ESZ) need to be built in the TGR shore zone urgently. Based on the implication and function of ESZ, this study first analyzed the relationships amongst three subsystems of the TGR area, including the upstream production-living land, the downstream reservoir water body, and the ESZ. Then a simple and practical hydrological environment model for controlling the eutrophication of the TGR water body was constructed to determine ESZ range of TGR. Additionally, based on the pollutant degradation efficiency of ESZ and the assimilative capacity of reservoir water body, a raster reverse tracking method was proposed to determine the range of ESZ. Thirdly, take Yangdu town in Zhongxian county as a typical region, the ESZ range under three scenarios of different rainfall intensity, degradation efficiency and inflow water quality that corresponding to the three decisive factors of defining ESZ range were discussed. Finally, the statistical laws of the ESZ’s width at each boundary points were discussed to facilitate the ESZ construction projects, and selected standardized rate at 70, 90, and 99 % were labelled as “General”, “Good” and “Excellent” level to represent the performance of the width of the ESZ range. In conclusion, it suggest “Good” level width as basic width of ESZ, and additionally a special protection zone should be put on upstream environment for the extreme large width at the boundary points.     

青藏高原东北缘北联池剖面清水营组孢粉组合特征及地质意义

青藏高原隆升是新生代最重要的地质事件之一,对邻区乃至全球的气候变化都产生了深远的影响,已有学者研究认为该期隆升与气候冷暖变化之间具有较好的耦合关系。北联池剖面在区域构造位置上隶属于青藏高原东北缘弧形构造带后缘六盘山以西,古近系清水营组主要为一套紫红色泥岩夹薄层石膏层为主的浅湖相沉积,蕴含了丰富的古环境和古气候信息。文章系统研究了剖面的孢粉组合特征,共鉴定出孢粉类型60属65种及若干未定种,其孢粉组合特征中被子植物花粉占绝对优势,裸子植物花粉和蕨类植物孢子含量很少。结合现有区域孢粉的研究成果,综合分析认为清水营组沉积的地质时代属于中晚渐新世—中新世早期。孢粉植物群以桦木科、胡桃科和榆科等落叶阔叶植物为主,组合中还出现了数量不多但种类繁多的热带—亚热带植物的花粉,而典型干旱的灌木和草本植物分子含量少,总体上反映了暖温带较温和湿润的古环境古气候背景。孢粉组合中几乎不见耐寒山地针叶植物花粉的出现,说明该时期区域气候环境尚未发生由暖转冷的重大变化,青藏高原向东北方向的隆升扩展尚未影响到六盘山地区。研究成果为约束青藏高原东北缘清水营组的沉积时代以及青藏高原隆升过程对区域古生态古气候的影响提供新的证据。     

西部开发过程中土地利用控制的必要性及措施

从西部开发的历史经验与教训、土地利用的不合理现状等方面，阐述国家在实施西部地区大开发战略中加强土地利用控制的必要性及其重要意义。在此基础上，提出土地利用控制的目标与任务。分析了对西部经济发展、自然生态环境建设与保护等密切相关的耕地、林地和草地等在土地利用与控制中存在的问题，进而提出相应的土地利用控制措施与对策。     

Oil source analysis of Upper Tertiary Shawan Formation in Chepaizi area,in the northwest margin of Junggar basin

Well che89, located in the Chepaizi area in the northwest margin of Junggar basin, acquires high production industrial oil flow, which is an important breakthrough in the exploration of the south foreland slope area of Junggar basin. The Chepaizi area is near two hydrocarbon generation depressions of Sikeshu and Shawan, which have sets of hydrocarbon source rock of Carboniferous to Jurassic as well as Upper Tertiary. Geological and geochemical parameters are proper for the accumulation of mixed source crude oil. Carbon isotope, group composition and biomarkers of crude oil in Upper Tertiary of well Che89 show that the features of crude oil in Upper Tertiary Shawan Formation are between that of Permian and Jurassic, some of them are similar to these two, and some are of difference, they should be the mixed source of Permian and Jurassic. Geochemical analysis and geological study show that sand extract of Lower Tertiary Wulunguhe Formation has the same source as the crude oil and sand extract of Upper Tertiary Shawan Formation, but they are not charged in the same period. Oil/gas of Wulunguhe Formation is charged before Upper Tertiary sedimentation, and suffered serious biodegradation and oxidation and rinsing, which provide a proof in another aspect that the crude oil of Upper Tertiary Shawan Formation of well Che89 is not from hydrocarbon source rock of Lower Tertiary.

     

水库区应力－孔压耦联分析

基于Ｂｉｏｔ耦联固结理论［１］，推导出二维饱水弹性岩石介质的应力－孔压耦联微分方程，并用有限元法和有限差分法分别对其进行了空间和时间的离散化。     

灵台-阿木去乎剖面地壳速度结构

在Ⅰ测线观测资料的基础上,本文结合测区特点给出了高程校正及沉积层校正方法,利用反射波与莫霍面折射波运动学特性进行一维、二维地壳结构的正、反演计算,获得了自甘肃夏河至灵台460公里范围内的分层地壳结构,认为西部地壳厚度约51公里,东部仅为44公里,已属鄂尔多斯地台区结构,与地槽区的分界线大致对应地表陇县固关镇。武山与张家川之间在15-20公里深处存在低速层。结合地震波的动力学特性,可判定本测线通过的超壳断层有鄂尔多斯西缘-六盘山断裂、西秦岭北缘断裂和武山南北向断裂。     

P507负载泡塑反相色层富集岩石中的稀土元素

研究了Ｐ５０７负载泡塑萃取柱色谱分离富集稀土元素的条件,并与Ｐ５０７萃淋树脂柱进行了对比;拟定了Ｐ５０７负载泡塑反相色属富集岩石中稀土元素的方法。在ｐＨ２．５介质中ＲＥＥ上柱率９８％,用５０ｍｌ２．５ｍｏｌ／ＬＨＮＯ３作洗脱液,ＲＥＥ总回收率达９６．１％,干扰测定的Ｔｈ,Ｕ,Ｔｉ,Ｚｒ,Ｈｆ等均被除法。方法用于标样分析验证,结果与推荐值相符。     

Optical system research of multi-object fiber spectroscopic survey telescope

In the first part of this paper,four different Cassegrain optical systems with their correctors are designed and studied for multi-object fiber slit spectroscopic survey.The aperture in 6.5 m and field of view 3°are taken for these optical systems.Assuming observation wavelength range is 0.365–0.95μm,the maximum zenith distance for observing is 60°,the maximum diameter of these lenses is 1.66 m,the altitude of the telescope site is 2500 m,two correctors are composed of 4-piece lenses and the other two are 5-piece lenses.The results obtained are:f-ratio about 3.7,the image quality for all four systems with EE80D≤0.60′′,the linear diameter of the focal surface is about 1.2 m and 11 000 fibers can be set on it.Considering the limit of size of fused silica and optical glass,the maximum diameter for lens is about 1.7 m.Such a 6.5 m telescope is about the largest one if using the above correctors.Considering the multiobject spectroscopic survey is greatly important,we also studied some telescope optical systems having their aperture near or larger than 10 m used for the multi-object fiber spectroscopic survey.Such ideas are introduced in the last section of this paper.     

云南省潜在震源区综合统计判定之一

本文将云南省地震局多年来积累的关于中强震发生的地质构造、地貌、地球物理场、地形变等特征基础资料,用于Cora-3算法的模式识别,得出云南省潜在震源区的背景指标,结果是比较理想的。“投票”结果表明,80%的学习集D类对象仍被识别为D类,85%的学习集N类对象仍被识别为N类,控制试验的结果也表明识别结果是比较稳定和可靠的。