Mining-induced tremors are indispensable events that gestate and trigger coal bursts. The radiated energy is usually considered a key index to assess coal burst risk of seismic events. This paper presents a model to assess coal burst risk of seismic events based on multiple seismic source parameters. By considering the distribution and relation laws of the seismic source parameters of coal bursts, the model aims to identify dangerous seismic events that more closely match the characteristics of multiple seismic source parameters of coal bursts. The new coal burst risk index T is proposed. It consists of the similarity index SI (representing the similarity degree of relations between seismic events and coal burst events based on seismic source parameters) and the strength index ST (representing the burst strength of seismic events). We studied 79 coal burst events that occurred during extraction in LW250105 of the Huating coal mine in Gansu Province, China. We obtained the distribution and relation laws of multiple seismic source parameters of coal burst events to establish SI and ST. Two groups of seismic events with different energy distributions were examined to compare the assessment results based on the new model and energy criteria. The results show that 80% and 89% of seismic events with strong coal burst risk in Groups A and B, respectively, were coincident, and the seismic events with medium coal burst risk were slightly less compared to those based on radiated energy. The results indicate that the assessment based on the T value is a modification and optimization of that based on radiated energy. This model is conducive to improving the efficiency of monitoring and early warning of coal burst risk.
Research on the diffusion characteristics of swells contributes positively to wave energy forecasting, swell monitoring, and early warning. In this work, the South Indian Ocean westerly index(SIWI) and Indian Ocean swell diffusion effect index(IOSDEI) are defined on the basis of the 45-year(September 1957–August 2002) ERA-40 wave reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF) to analyze the impact of the South Indian Ocean westerlies on the propagation of swell acreage. The following results were obtained: 1) The South Indian Ocean swell mainly propagates from southwest to northeast. The swell also spreads to the Arabian Sea upon reaching low-latitude waters. The 2.0-meter contour of the swell can reach northward to Sri Lankan waters. 2) The size of the IOSDEI is determined by the SIWI strength. The IOSDEI requires approximately 2–3.5 days to fully respond to the SIWI. The correlations between SIWI and IOSDEI show obvious seasonal differences, with the highest correlations found in December–January–February(DJF) and the lowest correlations observed in June–July–August(JJA). 3) The SIWI and IOSDEI have a common period of approximately 1 week in JJA and DJF. The SIWI leads by approximately 2–3 days in this common period. 相似文献
A rainband meridional shift index (RMSI) is defined and used to statistically prove that the East Asian summer monsoon rainband is usually significantly more northward in the early summer of solar maximum years than that of solar minimum years. By applying continuous wavelet transform, cross wavelet transform, and wavelet coherence, it is found that throughout most of the 20th century, the significant decadal oscillations of sunspot number (SSN) and the RMSI are phase-locked and since the 1960s, the SSN has led the RMSI slightly by approximately 1.4 yr. Wind and Eliassen–Palm (EP) flux analysis shows that the decadal meridional oscillation of the June rainband likely results from both a stronger or earlier onset of the tropical monsoon and poleward shift of the subtropical westerly jet in high-solar months of May and June. The dynamical responses of the lower tropical monsoon and the upper subtropical westerly jet to the 11-yr solar cycle transmit bottom-up and top-down solar signals, respectively, and the synergistic actions between the monsoon and the jet likely amplify the solar signal at the northern boundary of the monsoon to some extent. 相似文献
Paleoclimate and paleovegetation changes over the last 40 cal ka were recorded by multiple variables in a sediment core from Qingshi, Wudalianchi City, northeast China. The history of vegetation types inferred from n-C27/n-C31 and average chain length of n-alkanes indicates the paleovegetation went through several distinct stages, consistent with pollen records from the study area. Compound-specific carbon isotope composition was also determined for C27, C29 and C31n-alkanes in the Qingshi core sediments. The relative abundance of C3 and C4 plants was calculated using a binary model and indicates that C3 plants were the dominant input during the last glacial and Holocene. There were, however, shifts in the ratio of C3 to C4 vegetation abundance that correspond to changes in climate conditions. Generally, the long-term trend towards greater C4 plant abundance from the last glacial to Holocene correlated with an increase in pCO2, higher temperature, greater precipitation and more growing season precipitation. Our results suggest that temperature and seasonality of precipitation played a strong role in altering the relative abundance of C3 and C4 plants in the study area. These results provide information for predicting future vegetation changes in response to on-going global warming. 相似文献