Prediction of the Earlier Strong Aftershocks in the Earthquake Sequences by the Pseudo-Periodicity Method

We propose the pseudo-periodicity method and its quantitative prediction indexes for the occurrence time of earlier strong aftershock. We conducted tests of regressive prediction, and the R-value of the tests is 0.45, indicating that this method is effective for prediction.     

地面臭氧的变化规律和计算方法的初步研究Ⅱ.可见光波段

通过对广州鼎湖山近地面O3、NOx、太阳辐射,气象参数等项目的观测和理论分析,研究了地面O3与NOx等微量气体及太阳可见光辐射的变化规律,详细讨论了可见光波段、不同天气条件地面O3与NOx、光化学反应、气溶胶、可见光辐射等之间复杂的关系.提出以光能量传输与守恒的观点来考虑大气中与可见光辐射有关的主要过程,并以此来研究大气光化学过程中所遵循的能量规律,建立了一个简单、实用、省时的统计模式,用于计算地面O3浓度.结果表明:不同情况下,计算值与观测值吻合得均比较一致.     

Trends in temperature extremes over nine integrated agricultural regions in China, 1961–2011

By characterizing the patterns of temperature extremes over nine integrated agricultural regions (IARs) in China from 1961 to 2011, this study performed trend analyses on 16 extreme temperature indices using a high-resolution (0.5° × 0.5°) daily gridded dataset and the Mann-Kendall method. The results show that annually, at both daytime and nighttime, cold extremes significantly decreased but warm extremes significantly increased across all IARs. Overall, nighttimes tended to warm faster than daytimes. Diurnal temperature ranges (DTR) diminished, apart from the mid-northern Southwest China Region and the mid-Loess Plateau Region. Seasonally, DTR widely diminished across all IARs during the four seasons except for spring. Higher minimum daily minimum temperature (TNn) and maximum daily maximum temperature (TXx), in both summer and winter, were recorded for most IARs except for the Huang-Huai-Hai Region; in autumn, all IARs generally encountered higher TNn and TXx. In all seasons, warming was observed at daytime and nighttime but, again, nighttimes warmed faster than daytimes. The results also indicate a more rapid warming trend in Northern and Western China than in Southern and Eastern China, with accelerated warming at high elevations. The increases in TNn and TXx might cause a reduction in agriculture yield in spring over Northern China, while such negative impact might occur in Southern China during summer. In autumn and winter, however, the negative impact possibly occurred in most of the IARs. Moreover, increased TXx in the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta is possibly related to rapid local urbanization. Climatically, the general increase in temperature extremes across Chinese IARs may be induced by strengthened Northern Hemisphere Subtropical High or weakened Northern Hemisphere Polar Vortex.

     

内蒙古巴彦淖尔市一次强降水过程诊断分析

运用常规气象资料和自动站实测资料,从低涡系统的演变规律及物理机制等方面对2010年9月6-9日发生在内蒙古巴彦淖尔市一次强降水过程进行诊断分析.结果表明:此过程是在中高纬稳定的大尺度环流背景下,由地面气旋、低涡和副热带高压共同作用下产生的,东移的冷空气与西南暖湿气流在巴彦淖尔市上空交绥是造成此次强降水的主要原因.充足、稳定的水汽输送和较强的水汽辐合,为此次强降水提供了充足的水汽条件.高空强烈的辐散,通过抽吸作用引起低层强烈的辐合,从而促使垂直上升运动增强,是此次降水天气发生的动力.500 hPa层以上大气层结稳定,阻挡暖湿空气向上输送,促使不稳定能量在500 hPa层以下积累,为此次强降水发生提供了足够的能量条件.850 hPa偏东风暖湿气流受阴山的阻挡和抬升,降水量增加,而山后降水量减少.乌拉山与白云查汗山形成狭长山谷,边界层东风气流穿过,狭管效应有利于此地风速增大,将大量的水汽输送到巴彦淖尔市上空.     

8.4 ka以来纳木错湖芯介形类组合的环境变化意义

A 332-cm long lacustrine core was drilled in the Nam Co in the central-southern part of the Tibetan Plateau. From the core, 15 species of ostracods (Crustacea: Ostracoda), which belong to 6 genera have been identified. According to the variations of the ostracod assem-blages and the ostracods ecological features, which are sensitive to the changing environ-ment, three main stages can be distinguished as follows: Stage I was from 8400 to 6800 a BP, during which the climate was cold-humid, and the lake depth changed from shallow to deep. Stage II was from 6400 to 2500 a BP, during which the climate changed from warm-humid to cold-humid, and then to cold-dry. The lake depth gradually became deep. The shifting of cli-mate, from wet-cold to dry-cold during this period, had constructed the basis of present en-vironment in the Nam Co. Stage III was from 2500 a BP to the present, which showed a trait of lake depth increasing. At the earlier period of this stage, the climate kept as cold-dry as that in the former stage, but the salinity of the lake increased. At the later period of this stage, the degree of cold-dry was enhanced, and the activities of land surface runoff tended to be weakened. Our research also found that the peak values of ostracods with black shell was coherent with the maximum production of the ostracods, and agreed with the increasing sedimentary water dynamics. This indicated that the ostracods with black shell was simulta-neous with the high prolificacy of ostracod, and transported from other places. The abun-dance of Candona juvenile shells reflected the high mortality of that kind of ostracods under an unfavorable condition. This was probably a result of the rapid change of water dynamics of sedimentary environment.     

地质环境容量与评价研究

本文系统总结了当今地质环境容量研究存在的主要问题及发展趋势,应用地质环境容量评价指标体系,初步建立了地质环境容量评价理论框架.在此基础上结合上海市主要环境地质问题,分析其主要影响因素,分层次选取合适的评价指标,对上海市地质环境容量进行实证分析.     

塘沽地电阻率观测轻轨干扰降噪处理

随着地铁轻轨的迅速发展,我国大多数地电阻率测项受到不同程度干扰,诸多学者为此提出采用小波方法进行滤波的建议。文中拟采用小波和HHT滤波方法,以受津滨轻轨干扰严重的塘沽地电阻率观测资料为例,进行降噪处理,对比2种方法的滤波效果,以获得更好的滤波方法。     

Depositional sequence architecture and filling response model of the Cretaceous in the Kuqa depression, the Tarim basin

The Cretaceous system of the Kuqa depression is a regional scale (second order) depositional sequence defined by parallel unconformities or minor angular unconformities. It can be divided into four third-order sequence sets, eleven third-order sequences and tens of fourth- and fifth-order sequences. It consists generally of a regional depositional cycle from transgression to regression and is composed of three sets of facies associations: alluvial-fluvial, braided river-deltaic and lacustrine-deltaic facies associations. They represent the lowstand, transgressive and highstand facies tracts within the second-order sequence. The tectonic subsidence curve reconstructed by backstripping technique revealed that the Cretaceous Kuqa depression underwent a subsidence history from early accelerated subsidence, middle rapid subsidence and final slower subsidence phases during the Cretaceous time, with the correspondent tectonic subsidence rates being 30-35 m/Ma, 40-45 m/Ma and 5-10 m/Ma obtained from northern foredeep. This is likely attributed to the foreland dynamic process from early thrust flexural subsidence to late stress relaxation and erosion rebound uplift. The entire sedimentary history and the development of the three facies tracts are a response to the basin subsidence process. The slower subsidence foreland gentle slope was a favorable setting for the formation of braided fluvial deltaic systems during the late period of the Cretaceous, which comprise the important sandstone reservoirs in the depression. Sediment records of impermanent marine transgression were discovered in the Cretaceous and the major marine horizons are correctable to the highstands of the global sea level during the period.     

吉林市城市居住空间结构研究

以城市居住小区为统计单元,研究了吉林市城市居住小区的空间结构和社会结构.通过对吉林市居住小区资料的分析,归纳为5种类型:传统边缘小区、单位住宅小区、混合住宅小区、中低档商品房小区和高档商品房小区.运用密度分析法、圈层距离分析法和景观格局测度法,分析了各类居住小区的空间形态特征,归纳出目前吉林市城市居住空间的3个空间结构层次:中心城区、外围城区和城市边缘区.传统边缘小区主要分布在城市边缘区,在西部和南部边缘有较高的密度;单位住宅小区主要分布在中心城区和外围城区,地块破碎度较小;混合住宅小区数量最多,面积最大,主要分布在中心城区,外围城区也有较多分布;中低档住宅小区数量很多,分布较均匀;高档商品房小区主要分布在中心城区和外围城区交汇处的松花江沿岸,在城市边缘区没有分布.运用叠置分析法分析了吉林市城市居住空间的资源可获性,并将资源可获性划分为5个等级,其中混合住宅小区的资源可获性指数最高,传统边缘小区指数最低.通过对小区居民的调查问卷,分析了各个类别城市居住小区内居民的社会结构特征.发现小区的社会分异现象初显,居住小区内居民同质属性越来越弱,居民生活社区化明显,邻里关系淡化,老龄化特征凸显.