环渤海区域大气水份平衡特征的研究

利用１９８１￣１９９０年环渤海地区的地面气象资料，探空资料和土地利用资料，计算了该地区大气水份平衡方程中各分量，分析了其变化特征，并对它们之间的相互关系进行了研究。     

利用卫星云图估算焦作市4-9月12h降水

利用2004-2006年FY-2C卫星云图资料,统计了云顶亮温与焦作市降水量的关系;并根据相邻两张云图中云顶低亮温中心移动的距离和时间,确定云的移速。在此基础上,建立了层状云和积状云降水估算方程。经对2005-2006年估算结果统计,层状云有无降水预报准确率为80%;对4次积状云降水的估算结果为1次漏报、1次降水量级误差较大、2次预报正确,准确率达50%。     

关于大陆与陆缘的深部地震探查的进展──1994、1996年两届国际学术讨论会综述

连续两届国际深部地震讨论会成果累累。对深部地震的资料采集、处理、解释技术以及几类专门地质地球物理问题的研究进行了综述。研究成果在理论、方法方面是该领域的世界先进水平：在地震学应用于陆缘、陆壳与壳幔过渡带等地质问题方面有明显的提高。提出了值得讨论的问题，最后探讨了发展趋势     

基于自动气象站的深圳近10年城市气候变化特征研究:2011—2020年

利用广东省深圳市30个自动气象站观测数据对深圳市近10年的气候变化趋势进行了分析,结果表明:（1）深圳市2011—2020年的平均气温增长率约1.47 ℃/(10 a),比上一个10年显著增加,气候变暖并未停滞;（2）受城市化的影响,深圳市气温日较差在较大范围内呈减小趋势,但在少数地区却反常地呈现了上升趋势;（3）深圳的地面风速总体呈下降趋势,其中发达地区风速下降更快;（4）2011—2020年深圳市的平均相对湿度呈上升趋势,最高每年增长1.33%;（5）统计深圳各区不同时次的极端降雨量数据可以发现,未发展地区的极端降雨量增速较大,年总降水量的增长率也较高,增长率最高为42.41 mm/a,而其他地区的6 h以内的滑动降水量极大值均呈下降趋势;（6）利用多个自动气象站长时间序列数据,可以对深圳局地气候变化特征进行更加精细化的分析,这对国家基本站而言是一种有益的补充,有助于更加深刻地发掘城市化与气候变化的关系。      

我国松花江流域和辽河流域降水的长期变化规律和未来趋势分析

利用1881～2002年我国东北地区的月、季降水资料,采用历史曲线分析、功率谱分析、小波变换等方法,重点分析了松花江流域和辽河流域降水的长期变化规律。结果表明:松花江流域和辽河流域的降水都存在着明显的年代际变化,松花江流域降水以27～30年周期为主,辽河流域降水周期比松花江流域略长,大概为35～38年左右。根据降水自身演变规律及自回归方法预测的结果,估计未来5～10年,松花江流域仍将处于少雨期,辽河流域少雨期维持时间可能会稍长一些。     

An Overview of BCC Climate System Model Development and Application for Climate Change Studies

This paper reviews recent progress in the development of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model(BCC-CSM) and its four component models(atmosphere,land surface,ocean,and sea ice).Two recent versions are described:BCC-CSM1.1 with coarse resolution(approximately 2.8125°×2.8125°) and BCC-CSM1.1(m) with moderate resolution(approximately 1.125°×1.125°).Both versions are fully coupled climate-carbon cycle models that simulate the global terrestrial and oceanic carbon cycles and include dynamic vegetation.Both models well simulate the concentration and temporal evolution of atmospheric CO_2 during the 20th century with anthropogenic CO2 emissions prescribed.Simulations using these two versions of the BCC-CSM model have been contributed to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase five(CMIP5) in support of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report(AR5).These simulations are available for use by both national and international communities for investigating global climate change and for future climate projections.Simulations of the 20th century climate using BCC-CSMl.l and BCC-CSMl.l(m) are presented and validated,with particular focus on the spatial pattern and seasonal evolution of precipitation and surface air temperature on global and continental scales.Simulations of climate during the last millennium and projections of climate change during the next century are also presented and discussed.Both BCC-CSMl.l and BCC-CSMl.l(m) perform well when compared with other CMIP5 models.Preliminary analyses indicate that the higher resolution in BCC-CSM1.1(m) improves the simulation of mean climate relative to BCC-CSMl.l,particularly on regional scales.     

卫星激光测距望远镜指向误差研究

基于长春SLR站和武汉流动SLR站的6组观测数据,研究了卫星激光测距指向误差的分布特性,提出用遗传算法将观测样本数据分组后利用转台模型建模。结果表明:高度误差和方位误差具有规律性;模型输出的指向误差的残差不一定符合正态分布;遗传算法能提高模型的精度。     

Characteristics of coseismic water level changes at Tangshan well for the Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake and its larger aftershocks

Coseismic water level changes which may have been induced by the Wenchuan M_S8.0 earthquake and its 15 larger aftershocks (M_S≥?5.4) have been observed at Tangshan well. We analyze the correlation between coseismic parameters (maximum amplitude, duration, coseismic step and the time when the coseismic reach its maximum amplitude) and earthquake parameters (magnitude, well-epicenter distance and depth), and then compare the time when the coseismic oscillation reaches its maximum amplitude with the seismogram from Douhe seismic station which is about 16.3 km away from Tangshan well. The analysis indicates that magnitude is the main factor influencing the induced coseismic water level changes, and that the well-epicenter distance and depth have less influence. M_S magnitude has the strongest correlation with the coseismic water level changes comparing to M_W and M_L magnitudes. There exists strong correlation between the maximum amplitude, step size and the oscillation duration. The water level oscillation and step are both caused by dynamic strain sourcing from seismic waves. Most of the times when the oscillations reach their maximum amplitudes are between S and Rayleigh waves. The coseismic water level changes are due to the co-effect of seismic waves and hydro-geological environments.     

山西地区的波速比（V_P/V_S）特征研究

利用山西台网的数字地震观测资料,采用单震多台和达法、多震多台联合测定法,对山西北部、中部和南部地区波速比进行分析研究,结果表明：在2010年1月24日的河津万荣4.8级地震、4月4日的大同4.5级地震和6月5日阳曲4.6级地震前均存在波速比下降现象,其中前2次地震发生在波速比下降过程中,第3次地震则发生在波速比异常恢复阶段。之后山西中部和北部的波速比处于低值,尤其是山西北部的波速比低值持续,说明山西省北部是比较危险的区域。