真实地震情况下人群疏散特征与模拟演练的差异:2008年汶川地震监控录像的分析

真实地震情况下人群疏散特征与模拟演练的差异是应急疏散的统计物理研究中的一个关键问题.本文通过互联网收集和分析了2008年5月12日汶川MS8.0地震中一些记录到地震时人群疏散的监控录像.这些监控录像不仅为真实地震情况下人员疏散行为的研究提供了目前仍十分稀缺的实例.而且可用于约束紧急情况下人群疏散的统计物理模型.对条件相似的真实地震情况下和模拟演练情况下的疏散人数一疏散时间进行研究,发现出口处的疏散人数和疏散时间呈显著的非线性关系,这与通过模拟演练所得出的线性关系具有明显的差异.     

个旧老-卡岩体接触-凹陷带锡-铜多金属矿地质特征及成因分析

个旧老—卡岩体接触—凹陷带是个旧矿集区最重要的锡-铜多金属成矿构造带,该带中锡、铜矿产资源十分丰富。通过对凹陷带内矿体地质特征、围岩地层含矿性、微量元素、稀土元素、稳定同位素等的研究,结合大地构造环境,结果认为,凹陷带矿体是多种成矿物质来源,经历多种地质作用、多个大地构造演化阶段的多因复成矿床,接触-凹陷带锡-铜矿体形成主要与燕山中晚期花岗岩岩浆作用有关,其次与印支期海底火山-沉积与海底（火山）喷流-热水沉积成矿作用有关。     

论山东东营、惠民盆地油田水与油气聚集关系

山东东营、惠民盆地的油源断裂,即沟通生油岩与非生油岩的同生断裂发育区,出现了油田水的高含盐度分布带。它不仅与已知油气藏的分布相一致,而且水的含盐度异常值与石油储量之间呈正相关。笔者以东辛、现河庄和临商油田为例,分析了油田水与油气藏形成的成因和伴生关系,还用相关曲线定量预测了盆地新区石油地质储量,并经钻探证实其可靠性。     

自我决定论下的高中地理探究活动设计——以"火星基地应该是什么样子"为例

与传统地理课堂相比,基于自我决定论(SDT)的课堂教学更加重视学生的心理健康以及内部学习动机的培养。本研究以2019年人教版高中地理必修一“火星基地应该是什么样子”为例,基于自我决定论的自主、能力、关系三个心理需要的视角,进行探究活动的设计,将理论具体落实到地理教学过程的各个环节,建立起基于自我决定论的地理教学路径与框架。     

The Operational Forecasting of Total Precipitation in Flood Seasons (April to September) of 5 Years (1983-1987)

Ⅰ.INTRODUCTION We have discovered that there exists a good corresponding relationship between theanomalous axes of soil temperature at a depth of 1.6m in winter (December to February) andprecipitations in following flood season (Tang et al., 1982a). We have also designed a simplethermodynamical model and applied it to the forecasting of precipitations in the flood season(Tang et al., 1982 b,c). The practical forecast started from 1975. Before 1980, however, therewere only 40-50 stations in China for measuring the soil temperature at a 1.6m depth. Since1980, the stations have been increased to a total of about 180, but no available mean valueshad been obtained from newly added stations before 1982. Therefore the analysis and map-ping of anomalies of soil temperature was not performed until 1983, and from then on theprecision of analysis has been greatly improved. The following is the actual situation of forecast in five years from 1983 to 1987.     

The impact of climate change on runoff in the Yarlung Tsangpo River basin in the Tibetan Plateau

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is the “water tower of Asia” and it plays a key role on both hydrology and climate for southern and eastern Asia. It is critical to explore the impact of climate change on runoff for better water resources management in the TP. However, few studies pay attention to the runoff response to climate change in large river systems on the TP, especially in data-sparse upstream area. To complement the current body of work, this study uses two rainfall-runoff models (SIMHYD and GR4J) to simulate the monthly and annual runoff in the upstream catchments of the Yarlung Tsangpo River basin (YTR) under historical (1962–2002) and future (2046–2065 A1B scenario) climate conditions. The future climate series are downscaled from a global climate model (MIROC3.2_hires) by a high resolution regional climate model (RegCM3). The two rainfall-runoff models successfully simulate the historical runoff for the eight catchments in the YTR basin, with median monthly runoff Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency of 0.86 for SIMHYD and 0.83 for GR4J. The mean annual future temperature in eight catchments show significant increase with the median of +3.8 °C. However, the mean annual future precipitation shows decrease with the median of ?5.8 % except in Lhatse (+2.0 %). The two models show similar modeling results that the mean annual future runoff in most of catchments (seven in eight) shows decrease with the median of ?13.9 % from SIMHYD and ?15.2 % from GR4J. The results achieved in this study are not only helpful for local water resources management, but also for future water utilization planning in the lower reaches region of the Brahmaputra.     

强夯地基效应及加固机制浅析

强夯地基效应,是指经强夯处理使地基土的结构形式,强度和变形大小,及其作用过程发生的改变。通过对强夯过程中一系列的现象分析,揭示强夯地基效应的形成机制,对强夯地基效应的三个方面及其之间的联系进行分析,其结论对于强夯处理设计和加固机制的认识有较大意义。     

基于ArcGIS Engine的大型活动交通管理与模拟系统的设计与开发

以．Net为开发平台，基于ArcGIS Engine组件库开发了大型活动交通管理与模拟软件系统，系统可以为交通管理部门制定交通组织与管理方案提供可靠的决策支持。     

一种新型遥感影像快速匹配算法

An iterative algorithm to calculate mutual correlation using hierarchical key points and the search space mark principle is proposed. An effective algorithm is designed to improve the matching speed. By hierarchical key point algorithm and mutual correlation coefficients of the matching images, the important points can be iteratively calculated in the images hierarchically, and the correlation coefficient can be obtained with satisfactory precision. Massive spots in the parameter space which are impossible to match can be removed by the search space mark principle. Two approximate continuities in the correlation image matching process, the image gray level distribution continuity and the correlation coefficient value in the parameter space continuity, are considered in the method. The experiments show that the new algorithm can greatly enhance matching speed and achieve accurate matching results.