Recent progress on combining geomorphological and geochronological data with ice sheet modelling,demonstrated using the last British–Irish Ice Sheet

Palaeo-ice sheets are important analogues for understanding contemporary ice sheets, offering a record of ice sheet behaviour that spans millennia. There are two main approaches to reconstructing palaeo-ice sheets. Empirical reconstructions use the available glacial geological and chronological evidence to estimate ice sheet extent and dynamics but lack direct consideration of ice physics. In contrast, numerically modelled simulations implement ice physics, but often lack direct quantitative comparison with empirical evidence. Despite being long identified as a fruitful scientific endeavour, few ice sheet reconstructions attempt to reconcile the empirical and model-based approaches. To achieve this goal, model-data comparison procedures are required. Here, we compare three numerically modelled simulations of the former British–Irish Ice Sheet with the following lines of evidence: (a) position and shape of former margin positions, recorded by moraines; (b) former ice-flow direction and flow-switching, recorded by flowsets of subglacial bedforms; and (c) the timing of ice-free conditions, recorded by geochronological data. These model–data comparisons provide a useful framework for quantifying the degree of fit between numerical model simulations and empirical constraints. Such tools are vital for reconciling numerical modelling and empirical evidence, the combination of which will lead to more robust palaeo-ice sheet reconstructions with greater explicative and ultimately predictive power.     

Rain on snow induced urban floods in cold maritime climate: Risk,indicators and trends

Urban floods pose a societal and economical risk. This study evaluated the risk and hydro-meteorological conditions that cause pluvial flooding in coastal cities in a cold climate. Twenty years of insurance claims data and up to 97 years of meteorological data were analysed for Reykjavík, Iceland (64.15°N; <100 m above sea level). One third of the city's wastewater collection system is combined, and pipe grades vary from 0.5% to 10%. Results highlight semi-intensive rain (<7 mm/h; ≤3 year return period) in conjunction with snow and frozen ground as the main cause for urban flood risk in a climate which undergoes frequent snow and frost cycles (avg. 13 and 19 per season, respectively). Floods in winter were more common, more severe and affected a greater number of neighbourhoods than during summer. High runoff volumes together with debris remobilized with high winds challenged the capacity of wastewater systems regardless of their age or type (combined vs. separate). The two key determinants for the number of insurance claims were antecedent frost depth and total precipitation volume per event. Two pluvial regimes were particularly problematic: long duration (13–25 h), late peaking rain on snow (RoS), where snowmelt enhanced the runoff intensity, elongated and connected independent rainfall into a singular, more voluminous (20–76 mm) event; shorter duration (7–9 h), more intensive precipitation that evolved from snow to rain. Closely timed RoS and cooling were believed to trigger frost formation. A positive trend was detected in the average seasonal snow depth and volume of rain and snowmelt during RoS events. More emphasis, therefore, needs to be placed on designing and operating urban drainage infrastructure with regard to RoS co-acting with frozen ground. Furthermore, more detailed, routine monitoring of snow and soil conditions is important to predict RoS flood events.     

Piecewise prediction model for watershed‐scale erosion and sediment yield of individual rainfall events on the Loess Plateau,China

Establishing a universal watershed‐scale erosion and sediment yield prediction model represents a frontier field in erosion and soil/water conservation. The research presented here was conducted on the Chabagou watershed, which is located in the first sub‐region of the hill‐gully area of the Loess Plateau, China. A back‐propagation artificial neural model for watershed‐scale erosion and sediment yield was established, with the accuracy of the model, then compared with that of multiple linear regression. The sensitivity degree of various factors to erosion and sediment yield was quantitatively analysed using the default factor test. On the basis of the sensitive factors and the fractal information dimension, the piecewise prediction model for erosion and sediment yield of individual rainfall events was established and further verified. The results revealed the back‐propagation artificial neural network model to perform better than the multiple linear regression model in terms of predicting the erosion modulus, with the former able to effectively characterize dynamic changes in sediment yield under comprehensive factor conditions. The sensitivity of runoff erosion power and runoff depth to the erosion and sediment yield associated with individual rainfall events was found to be related to the complexity of surface topography. The characteristics of such a hydrological response are thus closely related to topography. When the fractal information dimension is greater than the topographic threshold, the accuracy of prediction using runoff erosion power is higher than that of using runoff depth. In contrast, when the fractal information dimension is smaller than the topographic threshold, the accuracy of prediction using runoff depth is higher than that of using runoff erosion power. The developed piecewise prediction model for watershed‐scale erosion and sediment yield of individual rainfall events, which introduces runoff erosion power and runoff depth using the fractal information dimension as a boundary, can be considered feasible and reliable and has a high prediction accuracy. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Trend and extreme occurrence of precipitation in a mid‐latitude Eurasian steppe watershed at various time scales

The confounding effects of step change invalidate the stationarity assumption of commonly used trend analysis methods such as the Mann–Kendall test technique, so previous studies have failed to explain inconsistencies between detected trends and observed large precipitation anomalies. The objectives of this study were to (1) formulate a trend analysis approach that considers nonstationarity due to step changes, (2) use this approach to detect trends and extreme occurrences of precipitation in a mid‐latitude Eurasian steppe watershed in North China, and (3) examine how runoff responds to precipitation trends in the study watershed. Our results indicate that annual precipitation underwent a marginal step jump around 1995. The significant annual downward trend after 1994 was primarily due to a decrease in summer rainfall; other seasons exhibited no significant precipitation trends. At a monthly scale, July rainfall after 1994 exhibited a significant downward trend, whereas precipitation in other months had no trend. The percentage of wet days also underwent a step jump around 1994 following a significant decreasing trend, although the precipitation intensity exhibited neither a step change nor any significant trend. However, both low‐frequency and high‐frequency precipitation events in the study watershed occurred more often after than before 1994; probably as either a result or an indicator of climate change. In response to these precipitation changes, the study watershed had distinctly different precipitation‐runoff relationships for observed annual precipitations of less than 300 mm, between 300 and 400 mm, and greater than 400 mm. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Balancing trade‐off issues in land use change and the impact on streamflow and salinity management

The south‐west region of the Goulburn–Broken catchment in the south‐eastern Murray–Darling Basin in Australia faces a range of natural resource challenges. A balanced strategy is required to achieve the contrasting objectives of remediation of land salinization and reducing salt export, while maintaining water supply security to satisfy human consumption and support ecosystems. This study linked the Catchment Analysis Tool (CAT), comprising a suite of farming system models, to the catchment‐scale CATNode hydrological model to investigate the effects of land use change and climate variation on catchment streamflow and salt export. The modelling explored and contrasted the impacts of a series of different revegetation and climate scenarios. The results indicated that targeted revegetation to only satisfy biodiversity outcomes within a catchment is unlikely to have much greater impact on streamflow and salt load in comparison with simple random plantings. Additionally, the results also indicated that revegetation to achieve salt export reduction can effectively reduce salt export while having a disproportionately smaller affect on streamflows. Furthermore, streamflow declines can be minimized by targeting revegetation activities without significantly altering salt export. The study also found that climate change scenarios will have an equal if not more significant impact on these issues over the next 70 years. Uncertainty in CATNode streamflow predictions was investigated because of the effect of parameter uncertainty. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spatial and temporal variability of stable isotopes (δ18O and δ2H) in surface waters of arid,mountainous Central Asia

Characterization of spatial and temporal variability of stable isotopes (δ¹⁸O and δ²H) of surface waters is essential to interpret hydrological processes and establish modern isotope–elevation gradients across mountainous terrains. Here, we present stable isotope data for river waters across Kyrgyzstan. River water isotopes exhibit substantial spatial heterogeneity among different watersheds in Kyrgyzstan. Higher river water isotope values were found mainly in the Issyk‐Kul Lake watershed, whereas waters in the Son‐Kul Lake watershed display lower values. Results show a close δ¹⁸O–δ²H relation between river water and the local meteoric water line, implying that river water experiences little evaporative enrichment. River water from the high‐elevation regions (e.g., Naryn and Son‐Kul Lake watershed) had the most negative isotope values, implying that river water is dominated by snowmelt. Higher deuterium excess (average d = 13.9‰) in river water probably represents the isotopic signature of combined contributions from direct precipitation and glacier melt in stream discharge across Kyrgyzstan. A significant relationship between river water δ¹⁸O and elevation was observed with a vertical lapse rate of 0.13‰/100 m. These findings provide crucial information about hydrological processes across Kyrgyzstan and contribute to a better understanding of the paleoclimate/elevation reconstruction of this region.     

Exploring the interaction of surface roughness and slope gradient in controlling rates of soil loss from sloping farmland on the Loess Plateau of China

Surface roughness and slope gradient are two important factors influencing soil erosion. The objective of this study was to investigate the interaction of surface roughness and slope gradient in controlling soil loss from sloping farmland due to water erosion on the Loess Plateau, China. Following the surface features of sloping farmland in the plateau region, we manually prepared rough surfaces using four tillage practices (contour drilling, artificial digging, manual hoeing, and contour plowing), with a smooth surface as the control measure. Five slope gradients (3°, 5°, 10°, 15°, and 20°) and two rainfall intensities (60 and 90 mm/hr) were considered in the artificial rainfall simulation experiment. The results showed that the runoff volume and sediment yield increased with increasing slope gradient under the same tillage treatment. At gentle slope gradients (e.g., 3° and 5°), the increase in surface roughness prevented the runoff and sediment production, that is, the surface roughness reduced the positive effect of slope gradient on the runoff volume and sediment yield to a certain extent. At steep slope gradients, however, the enhancing effect of slope gradient on soil erosion gradually increased and surpassed the reduction effect of surface roughness. This study reveals the existence of a critical slope gradient that influences the interaction of surface roughness and slope gradient in controlling soil erosion on sloping farmland. If the slope gradient is equal to or less than the critical value, an increase in surface roughness would decrease soil erosion. Otherwise, the increase in surface roughness would be ineffective for preventing soil erosion. The critical slope gradient would be smaller under higher rainfall intensity. These findings are helpful for us to understand the process of soil erosion and relevant for supporting soil and water conservation in the Loess Plateau region of China.