Neural network technique for identifying prognostic anomalies from low-frequency electromagnetic signals in the Kuril–Kamchatka region

In this paper, we suggest a technique for forecasting seismic events based on the very low and low frequency (VLF and LF) signals in the 10 to 50 Hz band using the neural network approach, specifically, the error back-propagation method (EBPM). In this method, the solution of the problem has two main stages: training and recognition (forecasting). The training set is constructed from the combined data, including the amplitudes and phases of the VLF/LF signals measured in the monitoring of the Kuril-Kamchatka region and the corresponding parameters of regional seismicity. Training the neural network establishes the internal relationship between the characteristic changes in the VLF/LF signals a few days before a seismic event and the corresponding level of seismicity. The trained neural network is then applied in a prognostic mode for automated detection of the anomalous changes in the signal which are associated with seismic activity exceeding the assumed threshold level. By the example of several time intervals in 2004, 2005, 2006, and 2007, we demonstrate the efficiency of the neural network approach in the short-term forecasting of earthquakes with magnitudes starting from M ≥ 5.5 from the nighttime variations in the amplitudes and phases of the LF signals on one radio path. We also discuss the results of the simultaneous analysis of the VLF/LF data measured on two partially overlapping paths aimed at revealing the correlations between the nighttime variations in the amplitude of the signal and seismic activity.     

Peculiarities of the within-year distribution of earthquakes in the Kuril region

Recent investigations have shown that the probability of the occurrence of earthquakes in a specified region depends on several factors, such as the latitude of the study region, as well as the lunar and solar tidal forces, which are governed by the mutual arrangement of bodies in the Sun-Earth-Moon system. The objective of our work is to prove that the irregularity of the within-year distribution of seismic events in the Pacific regions (the Kuril Islands and Hokkaido Island) is a statistically significant process, which is manifested in different ways for earthquakes with various source depths and energy levels. The hypothesis about the uniform within-year distribution of earthquakes is refuted for shallow events. However, it is shown that deep earthquakes are distributed uniformly. This work attempts for the first time to determine the stability degree of the within-year irregularity of seismic events with respect to the observation time interval (from 28 to 5 years). Two peaks are noted in the annual distribution of the earthquakes. The relation of the peaks of the within-year seismic activity to the Earth’s position on the ecliptic plane, as well as the relationships between the peaks, the magnitude range of the events, and the position of the specified subregion, is considered. The principal maximum of the seismic activity falls in the November-March period, which matches the minimum Earth-Sun distance.     

On the use of IPCC-class models to assess the impact of climate on Living Marine Resources

The study of climate impacts on Living Marine Resources (LMRs) has increased rapidly in recent years with the availability of climate model simulations contributed to the assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Collaboration between climate and LMR scientists and shared understanding of critical challenges for such applications are essential for developing robust projections of climate impacts on LMRs. This paper assesses present approaches for generating projections of climate impacts on LMRs using IPCC-class climate models, recommends practices that should be followed for these applications, and identifies priority developments that could improve current projections. Understanding of the climate system and its representation within climate models has progressed to a point where many climate model outputs can now be used effectively to make LMR projections. However, uncertainty in climate model projections (particularly biases and inter-model spread at regional to local scales), coarse climate model resolution, and the uncertainty and potential complexity of the mechanisms underlying the response of LMRs to climate limit the robustness and precision of LMR projections. A variety of techniques including the analysis of multi-model ensembles, bias corrections, and statistical and dynamical downscaling can ameliorate some limitations, though the assumptions underlying these approaches and the sensitivity of results to their application must be assessed for each application. Developments in LMR science that could improve current projections of climate impacts on LMRs include improved understanding of the multi-scale mechanisms that link climate and LMRs and better representations of these mechanisms within more holistic LMR models. These developments require a strong baseline of field and laboratory observations including long time series and measurements over the broad range of spatial and temporal scales over which LMRs and climate interact. Priority developments for IPCC-class climate models include improved model accuracy (particularly at regional and local scales), inter-annual to decadal-scale predictions, and the continued development of earth system models capable of simulating the evolution of both the physical climate system and biosphere. Efforts to address these issues should occur in parallel and be informed by the continued application of existing climate and LMR models.     

Contribution of horizontal deformation of the seafloor into tsunami generation near the coast of Japan on March 11, 2011

Based on the USGS slip distribution data (Finite Fault Model), the vector field of the seafloor deformation in the source of the tsunami that occurred on March 11, 2011, was calculated. The field of seafloor deformation and distribution of depths in the area of the source were used for reconstruction of the initial elevation of the water surface in the tsunami source. It was found that the contribution of horizontal deformations into the amplitude of the initial elevation, into the displaced water volume, and into the potential energy of the initial elevation is at about 20–25%. Within the framework of the linear theory of long waves, numerical simulation of evolution of the initial elevation was made. The simulation results were compared to the signals recorded by the four deep water stations DART which were the nearest to the source. It was shown that account of the horizontal deformation of the seafloor provides a more precise coincidence between the model and real data. Insignificant differences in arrival times of the model and real signals were interpreted as manifestation of phase dispersion and finite duration for the seafloor deformation to form.     

Using existing scientific capacity to set targets for ecosystem-based management: A Puget Sound case study

Human actions have altered the structure and function of coastal ecosystems worldwide. In many locations, the overall portfolio of goods, cultural amenities, and supporting services provided by the marine environment has deteriorated. Ecosystem-based management (EBM) offers significant promise for addressing these issues because it is a comprehensive and integrated approach designed to reconcile conflicts and trade-offs among users of marine resources. A key step in the implementation of EBM is the establishment of target reference levels, or desired states, for indicators that reflect the status of the ecosystem. This paper reviews five approaches, borrowed from a variety of disciplines, to establish target reference levels for EBM. The approaches include the use of existing reference levels, reference directions, and reference levels based on nonlinear functional relationships, baselines, or social norms. Each approach is particularly suitable for EBM because it can be used alone or in combination with others to contextualize status for a diverse suite of ecosystem goals influenced by a wide variety of human activities. Perhaps most importantly, these approaches offer a prospectus for moving forward with EBM by using readily available information, motivating existing scientific capacity, and addressing trade-offs implicit to the setting of targets. This last point is articulated via examples of how each type of reference level might be applied in Puget Sound, WA, USA, where the efforts of scientists, managers, and policy makers have aligned recently in the interest of EBM implementation.     

A seismic hazard assessment and the results of detailed seismic zoning for urban territories of Sakhalin Island

This work briefly discusses the main features of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). Special attention is paid to the identification and quantification of uncertainties related to seismic source characteristics and seismic engineering models for prediction of strong ground motions. The principal seismic models and the results of PSHA application for detailed seismic zoning of urban territories in Sakhalin Island are presented.     

Estimation of surface roughness (z0) over a stabilizing coastal dune field based on vegetation and topography

Accurate knowledge of the surface roughness and the resultant wind speed are important for many applications, such as climatic models, wind power meteorology, agriculture and erosion hazards, especially on sand dunes in arid and semi‐arid environments, where vegetation cover is scarce. In this study we aimed at quantifying the effects of vegetation cover and topography on surface roughness over a stabilizing dune field on the southern coast of Israel. Forty‐six wind measurements were made at various distances from the coastline, ranging from 10 to 2800 m, and z₀ values were calculated from the wind measurements based on the ratio between the wind gust and the average wind speed. We estimated vegetation cover using the soil adjusted vegetation index (SAVI) from Landsat satellite images for the upwind sector at various lengths, ranging from 15 to 400 m, and based on digital elevation models and differential GPS field measurements we calculated the topographic variable of the relative heights of the stations. z₀ values were positively correlated with the winter SAVI values (r = 0·87 at an upwind length of 200 m) and negatively correlated with the relative height (r = ?0·68 at an upwind length of 200–400 m for the inland dune stations). Using these variables we were able to create a map of estimated z₀ values having an accuracy of over 64%. Such maps provide a better understanding of the spatial variability in both wind speed and sand movement over coastal dune areas. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

GPS monitoring of recent crustal movements in Kamchatka and the Commander Islands during 1997–2007

This is a review of the geodetic monitoring of the horizontal component of recent crustal movements (RCMs) in Kamchatka and the Commander Islands for the period 1979–2007. Examples are provided of the RCMs recorded in Kamchatka and the Commander Islands for the period 1997–2007 by the Kamchatka regional GPS network (KAMNET) set up by workers at the Kamchatka Branch of the RAS Geophysical Service (KB GS RAS) in collaboration with the Institute of Volcanology and Seismology of the Far East Division of the Russian Academy of Sciences to study the geodynamic processes that are occurring in the Kamchatka subduction zone. An interpretation of examples of recorded RCMs is given.     

Ecometrics and the paleoecological implications of Pleistocene faunas from the western coastal plains of the Cape Floristic Region,South Africa

The Pleistocene ungulate communities from the western coastal plains of South Africa's Cape Floristic Region (CFR) are diverse and dominated by grazers, in contrast to the region's Holocene and historical faunas, which are relatively species-poor and dominated by small-bodied browsers and mixed feeders. An expansion of grassy habitats is clearly implied by the Pleistocene faunas, but the presence of ruminant grazers that cannot survive the summer dry season typical of the region today suggests other important paleoecological changes. Here we use dental ecometrics to explore the paleoecological implications of the region's Pleistocene faunas. We show that the dental traits (hypsodonty and occlusal topography) of the ungulates that occurred historically in the CFR track annual and summer aridity, and we use these relationships to reconstruct past aridity. Our results indicate that the Pleistocene faunas signal paleoenvironments that were on average less arid than today, including during the summer, consistent with other lines of evidence that suggest a higher water table and expansion of well-watered habitats. Greater water availability can be explained by lower temperature and reduced evapotranspiration during cooler phases of the Pleistocene, probably coupled with enhanced groundwater recharge due to increased winter precipitation.