Significance of model credibility in estimating climate projection distributions for regional hydroclimatological risk assessments

Ensembles of historical climate simulations and climate projections from the World Climate Research Programme’s (WCRP’s) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) multi-model dataset were investigated to determine how model credibility affects apparent relative scenario likelihoods in regional risk assessments. Methods were developed and applied in a Northern California case study. An ensemble of 59 twentieth century climate simulations from 17 WCRP CMIP3 models was analyzed to evaluate relative model credibility associated with a 75-member projection ensemble from the same 17 models. Credibility was assessed based on how models realistically reproduced selected statistics of historical climate relevant to California climatology. Metrics of this credibility were used to derive relative model weights leading to weight-threshold culling of models contributing to the projection ensemble. Density functions were then estimated for two projected quantities (temperature and precipitation), with and without considering credibility-based ensemble reductions. An analysis for Northern California showed that, while some models seem more capable at recreating limited aspects twentieth century climate, the overall tendency is for comparable model performance when several credibility measures are combined. Use of these metrics to decide which models to include in density function development led to local adjustments to function shapes, but led to limited affect on breadth and central tendency, which were found to be more influenced by “completeness” of the original ensemble in terms of models and emissions pathways.     

Decay of dynamic fracturing based on three-dimensional measurements of clastic-dike geometry

Several fundamental issues of fracture mechanics during the post-dynamic stage are yet not fully understood, including fracture arrest mechanisms, effects of the three-dimensional fracture propagation on fracture aperture and height relations, and the role played by fracture tips on fracture termination. We studied these issues in the seismically active Dead Sea basin, where clastic dikes (>10 m) and numerous smaller dikelets (<1 m) dynamically intruded the late-Pleistocene soft rock of the Lisan Formation. A three-dimensional study of the dikelets shows that they form arrest zones at the tips of the larger clastic dikes. Geometrically, the dikelets are divided into two parts: (1) the main dikelet, in which the aperture profile along the dikelet height is approximately elliptic; and (2) the elongated tip, in which the aperture profile along the tip height is approximately constant. The dikelet aspect ratio is defined as A/H, where A is dikelet aperture and H is dikelet height. A plot of A/H versus H describes power relations with two different zones: (1) Zone A, with a small variation of A/H, between 0.02 and 0.06, for dikelets in height range of 100–700 mm; and (2) Zone B, where the aspect ratio sharply increases to 0.23 in dikelets with heights less than 100 mm. We interpret that during deceleration, when the height of the elongated tip became greater than 1/10 of the dikelet height, inelastic conditions are dominant. Under these conditions, the fracture velocity decreases significantly and the dikelet aspect ratio increases. The present observations and analyses indicate that formation of elongated tips and dike (fracture) segmentation are essential for the decay of the dynamic fracturing.     

Duplex architecture and late‐orogenic backthrusting in Foredeep Units of the Northern Apennines (Italy)

The Northern Apennines of Italy is a fold and thrust belt that resulted from the NE‐ward progressive overthrusting of a Mesoalpine stacking (the ocean‐derived Ligurian Units) onto the detached sedimentary cover of the Adria plate continental margin (Foredeep Units). The Futa Pass area represents a key sector for the reconstruction of the deformation history of two Foredeep Units (Acquerino and Carigiola Units). The tectonic evolution of this sector is characterized by the superposition of three main deformation stages, with a constant NNE–SSW compression direction. The oldest structure is represented by the NNE‐verging Acquerino Unit duplex structure, the roof thrust of which is represented by the Ligurian stacking basal thrust. The interpretation of this structure as a large‐scale duplex is supported by the presence in the outer sectors of the Northern Apennines belt of Ligurian Units directly overthrust on younger Foredeep Units. In the second deformation stage the NNE‐verging Tavaiano Thrust developed. This regionally significant tectonic surface juxtaposes the Acquerino Unit (already developed as a duplex) and the overlying Ligurian Units, onto the Carigiola Unit. During this stage the fault pattern of the Carigiola Unit was also developed, characterized by two conjugate fault systems, coherent with a NNE–SSW maximum compression direction. During the last deformation stage, a backthrusting with a top‐to‐the SSW sense of movement (the Marcoiano Backthrust) brings the Carigiola Unit and its tectonic cover over the Acquerino and Ligurian Units, with the development of a large footwall syncline. The deformation history presented here differs from previous studies, and so provides a contribution to the debate on Northern Apennines tectonic evolution. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Transport system management under extreme weather risks: views to project appraisal,asset value protection and risk-aware system management

Until recently, research on potential economic impacts of climate change and extreme weather events on transport infrastructure was scarce, but currently this area is rapidly expanding. Indeed, there is a growing international interest, including the European area, regarding the impacts of extreme weather and climate change on the management of various transportation modes. This paper reviews briefly the present status regarding the knowledge of financial aspects of extreme weather impacts on transportation, using recent research findings from Europe, and proposes some new views in cost-benefit analysis, project appraisal and asset value protection for the management of transport systems under extreme weather risks. Quite often, risk management is understood as a response to truly extreme impacts, but this constitutes a misunderstanding. Some values are more extreme than others, and in the context of extreme weather, some weather phenomena are more extreme in their intensity and resulting impacts. An analysis of the level of costs and risks to societies, as a result of extreme weather, reveals that the risks in different European Union member states deviate substantially from each other. Also, the preparedness of different societies to deal with extreme weather events is quite variable. Extreme weather and climate change costs and risks represent a new type of item, which has to be dealt with in project appraisal. Although a fully established procedure does not exist, some fundamental ideas of cost-benefit analysis under extreme weather scenarios are presented in this paper, considering accident costs, time costs and infrastructure-related costs (comprising physical damages to infrastructures and increased maintenance costs). Cost-benefit analysis is usually associated with capital investments, but the original idea of cost-benefit analysis is not restricted to investment appraisal. Therefore, activities such as enhanced maintenance, minor upgrades, adoption of new designs, improved information services and others may be subject to cost-benefit analysis. Extreme weather and climate change costs and risks represent a new type of item, which apparently has to be dealt with also in project appraisal. A fully established procedure does not exist, although some basic principles have been introduced in analytical format. There is a lack of models to estimate extreme weather impacts and consequences and how to adapt to those costs. Optimising the efforts in maintenance and new design standards is even further away, but constitutes an overwhelming task. In this respect, new approaches and ways of thinking in preserving asset’s residual value, return periods, sustainability and equity and formal methods supplementing cost-benefit analysis are put forward. The paper concludes with a call for the need for more integrated management of transport systems. In particular, it is recognised that the different stages of transport system planning pose their own challenges when assessing the costs and benefits of policy measures, strategies and operational decisions.     

Corona-like atmospheric escape from KBOs: I. Gas dynamics

We show that for low temperatures (T∼30 K) and small, but non-negligible, gravitational fields the hydrodynamic escape of gas can be treated by Parker's theory of coronal expansion [Parker, E.N., 1963. Interplanetary Dynamical Processes. Interscience Publishers, New York]. We apply this theory to gas escape from Kuiper belt objects. We derive limits on the density and radius of the bodies for which this theory is applicable, and show how the flow depends on the mean molecular weight and internal degrees of freedom of the gas molecules. We use these results to explain the CH₄ dichotomy seen on KBOs [Schaller, E.L., Brown, M.E., 2007. Astrophys. J., 659, L61-L64].     

Alpine tectono‐metamorphic history of the continental units from Vardar zone: the Kopaonik Metamorphic Complex (Dinaric‐Hellenic belt,Serbia)

The easternmost zone of the Dinaric‐Hellenic belt is represented by the Vardar Zone, in which the Kopaonik Metamorphic Complex (KMC) is regarded as the lowermost unit. This complex is topped by the unmetamorphosed Brzece unit and is intruded by the Oligocene Kopaonik Intrusive complex. The KMC is characterized by a stratigraphy that includes metapelites and meta‐carbonates of Late Triassic age, associated with metabasites. It is characterized by a complex deformation history that comprises four phases: D1 to D4. The D1 phase structures occur only as relict structures, whereas the D2 phase structures are represented by isoclinal F2 folds, associated with a well‐developed S2 foliation. The estimated P‐T conditions for the D1 and D2 metamorphism are consistent with the upper greenschist facies. The D3 phase is characterized by west‐verging thrusts associated with upright folds. In contrast, the D4 phase is characterized by open folds (F4) associated with low‐angle normal faults. The D1 and D2 deformation phases developed during the shortening related to continental collision, whereas the subsequent D3 and D4 phases can be related to the progressive exhumation of the KMC. The D4 phase probably developed during extensional tectonics during and after emplacement of the Kopaonik Intrusive Complex. The data show that the continental units belonging to the Vardar zone had a long‐lived deformation history that was more complex that previously thought. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Seismicity and seismotectonic deformations of the crust in the Southern Baikal basin

This paper addresses the seismicity of the Southern Baikal basin, where the M _w = 6.0 earthquake of 1999 was the strongest over the period of instrumental observations in this region. Focal mechanisms of background earthquakes and aftershocks are analyzed in relation to faults mapped on flanks of and within the basin. Based on a supplemented catalog of focal mechanisms, the value and direction of seismotectonic strain are evaluated. The results show that the territory to the west of the transverse Angara fault (the Mishikhinskaya depression) experiences deformation of pure extension, while the E-W basin segment west of the fault is subjected to deformation of extension with shear (the transtension regime). The crustal deformation directions as determined from GPS measurements and seismological observations are found to agree well. The average seismotectonic strain rate of the crust amounts to 2.95 × 10^?9 yr^?1, which is about an order of magnitude smaller than the value obtained from geodetic observations.     

Recent geodynamics of Asia: Map,principles of its compilation,and geodynamic analysis

A new map of the recent geodynamics of Asia is presented along with the principles and methods of its compilation and a characterization of the used factual material. For the first time, a map is based on the three parameters that determine recent geodynamics: the thickness of the lithosphere, the stress state, and the vectors of recent movements in the brittle upper portion of the lithosphere. In addition, active volcanoes and epicenters of earthquakes with M ≥ 6.0 are shown.     

The additivity of partial thermal remanent magnetization in magnetite

Summary. Experiments were done to test the additivity of partial thermal remanent magnetizations (PTRMs) for prepared samples containing magnetite particles whose sizes range from SD (single domain) to MD (multidomain). The experiments compare the sum of two PTRMs with total-TRM, all produced by the same external field of 0.47 oe. The most significant conclusion of this paper is that, to first order, the additivity of PTRMs is obeyed for the magnetites of this study regardless of particle size. However, small, higher order deviations from additivity occur such that ΣPTRM > TRM by an average of about 1 per cent. Though small, these departures from additivity are significant at the 99 per cent confidence level, and they can be understood in terms of Néel's theory for SD particles. The small departures from additivity are intrinsic to the experimental procedure in which some particles acquire remanence twice, in each of the two PTRM steps. In the limit of small inducing fields additivity should be obeyed exactly for the magnetites of this study and for samples of interest in palaeomagnetism. The deviations from additivity should have no effect on palaeointensity determinations by the Thelliers' version of the Thellier palaeointensity method. For palaeointensity determinations by Coe's version of the Thellier method the effects of deviations from additivity would be very small, less than 4 per cent on the average for a worst-case experimental configuration, and these effects can be minimized by producing PTRMs parallel to the original NRM and by using weak laboratory fields.