Modelling European winter wind storm losses in current and future climate

Severe wind storms are one of the major natural hazards in the extratropics and inflict substantial economic damages and even casualties. Insured storm-related losses depend on (i) the frequency, nature and dynamics of storms, (ii) the vulnerability of the values at risk, (iii) the geographical distribution of these values, and (iv) the particular conditions of the risk transfer. It is thus of great importance to assess the impact of climate change on future storm losses. To this end, the current study employs—to our knowledge for the first time—a coupled approach, using output from high-resolution regional climate model scenarios for the European sector to drive an operational insurance loss model. An ensemble of coupled climate-damage scenarios is used to provide an estimate of the inherent uncertainties. Output of two state-of-the-art global climate models (HadAM3, ECHAM5) is used for present (1961–1990) and future climates (2071–2100, SRES A2 scenario). These serve as boundary data for two nested regional climate models with a sophisticated gust parametrizations (CLM, CHRM). For validation and calibration purposes, an additional simulation is undertaken with the CHRM driven by the ERA40 reanalysis. The operational insurance model (Swiss Re) uses a European-wide damage function, an average vulnerability curve for all risk types, and contains the actual value distribution of a complete European market portfolio. The coupling between climate and damage models is based on daily maxima of 10 m gust winds, and the strategy adopted consists of three main steps: (i) development and application of a pragmatic selection criterion to retrieve significant storm events, (ii) generation of a probabilistic event set using a Monte-Carlo approach in the hazard module of the insurance model, and (iii) calibration of the simulated annual expected losses with a historic loss data base. The climate models considered agree regarding an increase in the intensity of extreme storms in a band across central Europe (stretching from southern UK and northern France to Denmark, northern Germany into eastern Europe). This effect increases with event strength, and rare storms show the largest climate change sensitivity, but are also beset with the largest uncertainties. Wind gusts decrease over northern Scandinavia and Southern Europe. Highest intra-ensemble variability is simulated for Ireland, the UK, the Mediterranean, and parts of Eastern Europe. The resulting changes on European-wide losses over the 110-year period are positive for all layers and all model runs considered and amount to 44% (annual expected loss), 23% (10 years loss), 50% (30 years loss), and 104% (100 years loss). There is a disproportionate increase in losses for rare high-impact events. The changes result from increases in both severity and frequency of wind gusts. Considerable geographical variability of the expected losses exists, with Denmark and Germany experiencing the largest loss increases (116% and 114%, respectively). All countries considered except for Ireland (?22%) experience some loss increases. Some ramifications of these results for the socio-economic sector are discussed, and future avenues for research are highlighted. The technique introduced in this study and its application to realistic market portfolios offer exciting prospects for future research on the impact of climate change that is relevant for policy makers, scientists and economists.     

Optical observations of transient luminous events associated with winter thunderstorms near the coast of Israel

We report the results of two observation campaigns conducted during the Northern Hemisphere winters of 2005–6 and 2006–7 aiming to detect transient luminous events (TLEs) above winter thunderstorms in the vicinity of Israel and the eastern coastline of the Mediterranean Sea. In 10 out of 31 different observation nights we detected 66 events: 56 sprites and 10 Elves. The detection ranges varied from 250 to 450 km. Sprites were found to be produced by active cells with a vertical dimension of 5–9 km and cloud top temperature ~ − 40 °C, embedded in a much larger matrix of stratiform precipitating cloudiness. This configuration closely resembles the conditions for winter sprites in the Hokuriku region of Japan. Synchronized with the optical observations, ELF data were recorded at two observation stations in Israel and Hungary in order to qualify and quantify parameters of the parent lightning discharge associated with the TLEs. These stations are located 500 km and 2100 km respectively from the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, where most TLEs occur. Among the optically observed TLE events, we found that all the ELF signals were produced solely by positive cloud-to-ground flashes (+ CGs), most of which were recorded in Israel (88%) and Hungary (77%). Calculation of the Charge Moment Change showed average values of 1400 ± 600 C km, with some extreme events exceeding 3500 C km. The average time delay between the ELF transient of the parent + CG and the observed sprites was 55 ms, with shorter delays for column sprites (42 ± 34 ms) compared to carrot sprites (68 ± 34). Furthermore, based on the ELF data, there were no early identifiable precursors to TLE occurrence in the regional lightning activity. From the spatial formation of the observed columniform sprites, we propose that columniform sprites are sometimes arranged in a 3-dimensional circular pattern, thus mapping the instantaneous electric field in the mesosphere.     

Bayesian multi-model projection of climate: bias assumptions and interannual variability

Current climate change projections are based on comprehensive multi-model ensembles of global and regional climate simulations. Application of this information to impact studies requires a combined probabilistic estimate taking into account the different models and their performance under current climatic conditions. Here we present a Bayesian statistical model for the distribution of seasonal mean surface temperatures for control and scenario periods. The model combines observational data for the control period with the output of regional climate models (RCMs) driven by different global climate models (GCMs). The proposed Bayesian methodology addresses seasonal mean temperatures and considers both changes in mean temperature and interannual variability. In addition, unlike previous studies, our methodology explicitly considers model biases that are allowed to be time-dependent (i.e. change between control and scenario period). More specifically, the model considers additive and multiplicative model biases for each RCM and introduces two plausible assumptions (“constant bias” and “constant relationship”) about extrapolating the biases from the control to the scenario period. The resulting identifiability problem is resolved by using informative priors for the bias changes. A sensitivity analysis illustrates the role of the informative prior. As an example, we present results for Alpine winter and summer temperatures for control (1961–1990) and scenario periods (2071–2100) under the SRES A2 greenhouse gas scenario. For winter, both bias assumptions yield a comparable mean warming of 3.5–3.6°C. For summer, the two different assumptions have a strong influence on the probabilistic prediction of mean warming, which amounts to 5.4°C and 3.4°C for the “constant bias” and “constant relation” assumptions, respectively. Analysis shows that the underlying reason for this large uncertainty is due to the overestimation of summer interannual variability in all models considered. Our results show the necessity to consider potential bias changes when projecting climate under an emission scenario. Further work is needed to determine how bias information can be exploited for this task.     

Characterizing the pulsations of the ZZ Ceti star KUV 02464+3239

We present the results on period search and modelling of the cool DAV star KUV 02464+3239. Our observations resolved the multiperiodic pulsational behaviour of the star. In agreement with its position near the red edge of the DAV instability strip, it shows large amplitude, long-period pulsation modes, and has a strongly non-sinusoidal light curve. We determined six frequencies as normal modes and revealed remarkable short-term amplitude variations. A rigorous test was performed for the possible source of amplitude variation: beating of modes, effect of noise, unresolved frequencies or rotational triplets. Among the best-fitting models resulting from a grid search, we selected three that gave   l = 1  solutions for the largest amplitude modes. These models had masses of 0.645, 0.650 and  0.680  M _⊙  . The three 'favoured' models have   M _H  between  2.5 × 10⁻⁵ and 6.3 × 10⁻⁶  M _*  and give 14.2–14.8 mas seismological parallax. The  0.645  M _⊙  (11 400 K) model also matches the spectroscopic  log  g   and   T _eff  within 1σ. We investigated the possibility of mode trapping and concluded that while it can explain high amplitude modes, it is not required.     

The evolution of Petrov lake and moraine dam rupture risk (Tien-Shan,Kyrgyzstan)

An interdisciplinary study of glacier-related hazards in the Petrov lake region (Ak-Shiirak Range, the Inner Tien-Shan, Kyrgyzstan) has been undertaken to identify potential dangers to the area. A cooperative effort from experts in the fields of hydrology, glaciology, geomorphology and geophysics has been employed in this study. For the hazard assessment, evolution of the Petrov glacier and lake was reconstructed using historical reports, aerial photographs and satellite images. Geomorphological mapping and geophysical soundings was applied to the lake territory and the moraine dam. This has identified potentially hazardous areas of the dam including subsurface drainage zones and cracks that could cause a sudden extremely high discharge. In the past three decades, the Petrov lake has doubled in size, while in recent years, its area has been increasing by more than 92,000 square metres per year. Although there is no evidence for an imminent outburst, the dramatic increase in the lake’s size emphasizes the importance of this study.     

Purification of diatomite powder by acid leaching for use in fabrication of porous ceramics

This study presents an investigation of the purification of a raw diatomite by acid leaching conducted in hot solution (75 °C and 5 M HCl) for long periods up to 240 h, evaluates the use of these purified powders in the fabrication of porous materials, and examines their porosities. The treatment for 1 h increased the specific surface area of diatomite from 189 m²/g to 222 m²/g, but the SiO₂ content of 78.66% was still low. Material leached for a relatively short time shows an amorphous phase with quartz and plagioclase phases and the plagioclase is removable at longer leaching times during which no disruptive effect on the fine microscopic pores of the particles was observed. Thus, the diatomite based powders have potential use in the fabrication of porous coating as a membrane-separating layer: sintering at a relatively high temperature (1300 °C) still showed a significantly high apparent porosity of 48%.     

Two types of ultrapotassic plutonic rocks in the Bohemian Massif — Coeval intrusions at different crustal levels

We present U–Pb zircon age determinations of two Variscan ultrapotassic plutonic rocks from the Moldanubian Zone (Bohemian Massif). Equant, multifaceted zircons without inherited cores from a two-pyroxene–biotite quartz monzonite of the Jihlava Pluton yielded a precise age of 335.12 ± 0.57 Ma, interpreted as dating magma crystallization. The majority of both tabular and prismatic grains from the amphibole–biotite melagranite (“durbachite”) from the T?ebí? Pluton plot along a discordia intersecting the concordia at 334.8 ± 3.2 Ma; prismatic zircon grains commonly contain inherited cores and yield an upper intercept age of 2.2 Ga, indicating early Proterozoic inheritance. We therefore suggest that both types of the ultrapotassic plutonic rocks from the Bohemian Massif crystallized at ca 335 Ma, and the previously published ages higher than ca 340 Ma for “durbachites” were biased by a small amount of unresolved inheritance. The ultrapotassic magma emplacement in the middle crust was related to rapid exhumation of a deep crustal segment, considered as isothermal decompression between high-pressure (～ 340 Ma) and medium-pressure (～ 333 Ma) stages recorded in granulites. Mineral assemblages as well as external and internal zircon morphology suggest that the Jihlava intrusion was deep and dry, whereas the T?ebí? intrusion was shallow and wet. Low ε_Hf values of zircons (? 4.4 to ? 7.5) in both rock types suggest a similar source with a predominant crustal component. However, inherited grains in the T?ebí? melagranite indicate its contamination with crustal material during emplacement, and thus possibly a slower rate of exhumation and/or of magma ascent through the crust.     

Relationship between chemical composition and magnetic susceptibility in the alkaline volcanics from the Isparta area,SW Turkey

Potassium-rich volcanic rocks in the Isparta area (SW Turkey) consist mainly of older (Pliocene) volcanic rock suites (e.g., lamprophyre, basaltic trachyandesite, trachyandesite, trachyte) and younger (Quaternary) caldera forming lava dome/flows (e.g., tephriphonolite, trachyte) and pyroclastics (ash/pumice fall deposits and ignimbritic flows). The magnetic susceptibility (K) was performed for both groups. The magnetic susceptibility value of the less evolved rocks characterized by SiO₂ < 57 wt% (e.g., basaltic trachyandesite, tephriphonolite, lamprophyric rocks) and having mostly mafic phenocrysts such as pyroxene, amphibole, and biotite-phlogopite is over 10 (10⁻³ [SI]). Fine to medium-grained and subhedral to anhedral opaque minerals are scattered especially in the matrix phase of the less evolved volcanic rocks. However, the K value of the more evolved rocks (e.g., trachyte and trachyandesites) with SiO₂ over 57 wt% vary between 0.1 and 28, but most of them below 10. SI values are negatively correlated with SiO₂, Na₂O, but positively correlated with Fe₂O₃, CaO, MnO, P₂O₅ and MgO contents, suggesting inverse variation of SI with fractionation of potassic magma. That is to say that less evolved volcanic rocks have relatively higher magnetic susceptibility values in the volcanic suite. Fine to medium-grained and subhedral to anhedral Fe-Ti oxides are scattered mainly in the matrix phase of the less evolved volcanics, presumably cause the pronounced relatively higher magnetic susceptibility.