Uncertainty in floodplain delineation: expression of flood hazard and risk in a Gulf Coast watershed

This paper investigates the development of flood hazard and flood risk delineations that account for uncertainty as improvements to standard floodplain maps for coastal watersheds. Current regulatory floodplain maps for the Gulf Coastal United States present 1% flood hazards as polygon features developed using deterministic, steady‐state models that do not consider data uncertainty or natural variability of input parameters. Using the techniques presented here, a standard binary deterministic floodplain delineation is replaced with a flood inundation map showing the underlying flood hazard structure. Additionally, the hazard uncertainty is further transformed to show flood risk as a spatially distributed probable flood depth using concepts familiar to practicing engineers and software tools accepted and understood by regulators. A case study of the proposed hazard and risk assessment methodology is presented for a Gulf Coast watershed, which suggests that storm duration and stage boundary conditions are important variable parameters, whereas rainfall distribution, storm movement, and roughness coefficients contribute less variability. The floodplain with uncertainty for this coastal watershed showed the highest variability in the tidally influenced reaches and showed little variability in the inland riverine reaches. Additionally, comparison of flood hazard maps to flood risk maps shows that they are not directly correlated, as areas of high hazard do not always represent high risk. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Seismic response of a bridge–soil–foundation system under the combined effect of vertical and horizontal ground motions

Different levels of model sophistication have recently emerged to support seismic risk assessment of bridges, but mostly at the expense of neglecting the influence of vertical ground motions (VGMs). In this paper, the influence of VGMs on bridge seismic response is presented and the results are compared with the case of horizontal‐only excitations. An advanced finite element model that accounts for VGMs is first developed. Then, to investigate the effect of soil–structure interaction (SSI) including liquefaction potential, the same bridge with soil‐foundation and fixed boundary conditions is also analyzed. Results show that the inclusion of the VGMs has a significant influence on the seismic response, especially for the axial force in columns, normal force of bearings, and the vertical deck bending moments. However, VGMs do not have as much influence on the seismic demand of the pile cap displacements or pile maximum axial forces. Also, the significant fluctuation of the column axial force can reduce its shear and flexural capacity, and a heightened reversal of flexural effects may induce damage in the deck. In addition, relative to the fixed base case, SSI effects tend to reduce response quantities for certain ground motions while increasing demands for others. This phenomenon is explained as a function of the frequency content of the ground motions, the shift in natural vertical periods, and the VGM spectral accelerations at higher modes. Moreover, the mechanisms of liquefaction are isolated relative to SSI effects in nonliquefiable soils, revealing the influence of liquefaction on bridge response under VGMs. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Natural protected areas of San Luis Potosí, Mexico: ecological representativeness,risks, and conservation implications across scales

Assessments of the conservation status of natural resources have been conducted at large (i.e., global, continental, and countrywide) extents. Studies at finer scales, however, can yield increased detail needed to identify conservation strategies for smaller scales which can contribute to goals at the larger extents. Our study was conducted at the scale of a single state, San Luis Potosí, in Central Mexico. Although the state harbors great biological diversity, large areas covered by natural vegetation communities have been and continue to be destroyed by land use changes, cattle grazing, and mine-generated pollution. Our purposes were to quantify the proportion of distribution within natural protected areas (NPAs) of land cover classes, soil types, ecoregions, and altitudinal steps. In addition, within individual NPAs, we aimed at assessing risks. We conducted our analysis at the 1:1, 1:250,000, and 1:1,000,000 scales depending on layer availability. Our results show that actions within the state could contribute to federal and global conservation goals by protecting sites of globally imperiled ecosystems (cloud forests and natural grasslands). At a finer scale, we identified that piedmont scrubland, medium and low tropical moist forests, wetlands, and low elevation habitats are rare and/or constitute conservation omissions within the state. Similarly, ecoregions with mesquite, semi-deciduous, and moist tropical thorn forest, wetlands, and low elevations (<1200 m.a.s.l.) are conservation omissions or gaps. Finally, at the smallest scale, risks within some protected areas (PAs) include the presence of agriculture, cattle grazing, and mine tailings from mines dedicated to extraction of Au, Ag, Cu, Pb, and Zn. Therefore, management within these PAs should minimize such risks through identification of the most important conservation zones within the PAs, and implementation of local legislation prohibiting such activities at the immediacies of conservation zones. Approaches like ours within similar administrative units will help identify ecosystems that are vulnerable and not well protected. However, to prioritize conservation action it is also important to consider surrogates such as species from different groups and ecosystems, as well as rarity and complementarity of such surrogates.     

Tetrapods from the Upper Cretaceous (Turonian–Maastrichtian) Bauru Group of Brazil: a reappraisal

An updated, annotated list of all tetrapods from the Adamantina, Uberaba and Marília formations (Bauru Group), which constitute some of the best studied Upper Cretaceous units in Brazil, is presented. Tetrapod diversity in the Bauru Group is remarkable, including an admixture of typically austral Gondwanan taxa (e.g., abelisaurids, notosuchians) and boreal Gondwanan forms (e.g., carcharodontosaurids). Of note is the absence of Laurasian taxa in the upper portion of the Bauru Group. With the exception of some turtles, an anuran, mesoeucrocodylians and one titanosaur, most taxa from the Bauru Group are based on fragmentary and isolated bones, and as such many specimens can be identified only to a higher taxonomic level. Fishes, turtles, anurans, mesoeucrocodylians, dinosaurs, birds and mammals from the Adamantina and Marília formations resemble the latest Late Cretaceous vertebrate faunas from southern South America, except for the absence of ornithischian dinosaurs.     

A double structure generalized plasticity model for expansive materials

The constitutive model presented in this work is built on a conceptual approach for unsaturated expansive soils in which the fundamental characteristic is the explicit consideration of two pore levels. The distinction between the macro‐ and microstructure provides the opportunity to take into account the dominant phenomena that affect the behaviour of each structural level and the main interactions between them. The microstructure is associated with the active clay minerals, while the macrostructure accounts for the larger‐scale structure of the material. The model has been formulated considering concepts of classical and generalized plasticity theories. The generalized stress–strain rate equations are derived within a framework of multidissipative materials, which provides a consistent and formal approach when there are several sources of energy dissipation. The model is formulated in the space of stresses, suction and temperature; and has been implemented in a finite element code. The approach has been applied to explaining and reproducing the behaviour of expansive soils in a variety of problems for which experimental data are available. Three application cases are presented in this paper. Of particular interest is the modelling of an accidental overheating, that took place in a large‐scale heating test. This test allows the capabilities of the model to be checked when a complex thermo‐hydro‐mechanical (THM) path is followed. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Influence of rainfall spatial variability on flood prediction

This paper deals with the sensitivity of distributed hydrological models to different patterns that account for the spatial distribution of rainfall: spatially averaged rainfall or rainfall field. The rainfall data come from a dense network of recording rain gauges that cover approximately 2000 km² around Mexico City. The reference rain sample accounts for the 50 most significant events, whose mean duration is about 10 h and maximal point depth 170 mm. Three models were tested using different runoff production models: storm-runoff coefficient, complete or partial interception. These models were then applied to four fictitious homogeneous basins, whose sizes range from 20 to 1500 km². For each test, the sensitivity of the model is expressed as the relative differences between the empirical distribution of the peak flows (and runoff volumes), calculated according to the two patterns of rainfall input: uniform or non-uniform. Differences in flows range from 10 to 80%, depending on the type of runoff production model used, the size of the basin and the return period of the event. The differences are generally moderate for extreme events. In the local context, this means that uniform design rainfall combining point rainfall distribution and the probabilistic concept of the areal reduction factor could be sufficient to estimate major flood probability. Differences are more significant for more frequent events. This can generate problems in calibrating the hydrological model when spatial rainfall localization is not taken into account: a bias in the estimation of parameters makes their physical interpretation difficult and leads to overestimation of extreme flows.     

Environmental and pollution condition of the huizache-caimanero lagoon, in the north-west of Mexico

The fish and shrimp production of the Huizache-Caimanero Lagoon, located on the Mexican Pacific, has been decreasing in recent years, which may be due to environmental and pollution conditions. Therefore, water and sediment samples were analysed to quantify nutrients, pesticides, and coliform bacteria. The results indicated that the system is polluted considerably during the rainy season due to continental runoff carrying municipal and agricultural wastes, thereby increasing coliform pollution and nitrate concentrations. This is less apparent for phosphates and pesticides. We conclude that pollution and environmental changes are important causes decreasing production; recent studies have reported biochemical and physiological alteration in aquatic organisms exposed to similar levels of pesticides as reported here. During the rainy season, coliform levels are above permissible levels established by sanitary regulations, and are thus pose a risk to public health.     

Heavy metal and arsenic distributions in sediments of the Elba-Argentario basin, southern Tuscany, Italy

 Arsenic, chromium, cobalt, copper, lead, nickel, vanadium and zinc distributions in surficial and core sediments of the Elba-Argentario marine basin (southern Tuscany, central-western Italy) are reported. Analysis of such distributions compared with grain size and mineralogical data allowed the identification of areas showing trace element enrichments with respect to natural background. These enrichments are moderate and essentially restricted to Pb and Zn; only As shows a widespread, though not high, positive anomaly. This general pattern is in good agreement with the minor industrialization affecting the basin's watershed. An unexpected anomaly, concerning Co, Pb, and As, as well as Fe and Ti, has been pointed out close to Montecristo Island. This has been ascribed to illegal local dumping of chemical waste. Received: 12 January 1996 / Accepted: 9 September 1996