Using GIS to Model and Forecast HIV/AIDS Rates in Africa, 1986–2010

In this article we draw on the power of geographic information systems (GIS) to examine the progression of HIV/AIDS in Africa for the period from 1986 to 2003. We use GIS for two purposes: (1) to transform and interpolate a set of annual point-based HIV/AIDS rates into area data; and (2) to extract or “mine” annual HIV/AIDS prevalence rates from the interpolated area (country) level maps. Once the rates are extracted from the GIS analysis we then model and forecast them into the near future (i.e., 2004–2010) by using the UNAIDS Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) software. The article offers an alternative grounded in geospatial analysis for yielding estimates of HIV/AIDS rates in Africa. Using incomplete sets of data for the period from 1986 to 2003, mean HIV/AIDS rates are generated from spatially interpolated data and future trends are estimated. The results indicate that the HIV/AIDS epidemic for many countries in Africa has reached the saturation or maturity level as evidenced by the typical S-shaped curves in the trends over time. As a matter of fact, some countries have begun to experience a sustained decline in the rates (e.g., Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda, and Zimbabwe).     

(Trans)national Bodies, (Trans)national Languages and the Transformation of Local Urban Space

This paper discusses some of the ways that international students, particularly those from East Asia, are involved in the transformation of urban space in Auckland City. Using existing economic reports, local media accounts and the author's initial observations, the paper identifies how the embodied and linguistic practices of international students are involved in the changing landscapes of Auckland's inner city. This cursory reading serves to identify a research agenda and to reflect upon some key theoretical textxs. The insights of Arjun Appadurai, Michael Peter Smith and Ulrich Beck are used to suggest that the changes in Auckland, whilst certainly local, are also influenced fry factors that emerge from beyond the borders of international students' origin communities, cities and nations.     

Prediction of the abiotic degradability of organic compounds in the troposphere

A statistically relevant correlation between the reaction rate coefficient, k _OH, for the OH radical reaction with 161 organic compounds in the gas phase at 300 K, and the corresponding vertical ionisation energies E _i,v, reveals two classes of compounds: aromatics where –log(k _OH/cm³s^-1)3/2E _i,v(eV)–2 and aliphatics where –log(k _OH/cm³s^-1)4/5E _i,v(eV)+3. The prediction of the rate coefficient, k _OH, for the reaction of OH with organic molecules from the above equations has a probability of about 90%. Assuming a global diurnal mean of the OH radical concentration of 5×10⁵ cm³, the upper limit of the tropospheric half-life of organic compounds and their persistence can be estimated.     

Resolving climate change in the period 15–23 ka in Greenland ice cores: a new application of spectral trend analysis

Northern Hemisphere climate history through and following the Last Glacial Maximum is recorded in detail in ice cores from Greenland. However, the period between Greenland Interstadials 1 and 2 (15–23 ka), i.e. the period of deglaciation following the last major glaciation, has been difficult to resolve in great detail. We here offer a new subdivision of this in the NGRIP, GRIP and GISP2 ice cores, by newly introducing spectral trend analysis to the study of climate-related data series from ice cores. This analysis reveals patterns of change and discontinuity in the waveform properties of a data series, relating to the environmental (including climatic) history of accumulation of the rock or ice record. The application allows high-resolution correlation between the ice cores, and a greatly improved subdivision of the study interval. Nine climatic phases are recognized, within which more identifiable events can also be correlated between the three locations.     

A comparative analysis of three habitat suitability models for commercial yield estimation of Tapes philippinarum in a North Adriatic coastal lagoon (Sacca di Goro, Italy)

Habitat Suitability (HS) models have been extensively used by conservation planners to estimate the spatial distribution of threatened species and of species of commercial interest. In this work we compare three HS models for the estimation of commercial yield potential and the identification of suitable sites for Tapes philippinarum rearing in the Sacca di Goro lagoon (Italy) on the basis of six environmental factors. The habitat suitability index (HSI) is based on expert opinion while the habitat suitability conditional (HSC) is calibrated on observational data. The habitat suitability mixed (HSM) model is a two-part model combining expert knowledge and regression analysis: the first component of the model uses logistic regression to identify the areas in which clams are likely to be present; the second part applies the same parameter-specific suitability functions of the HSI model only in the areas previously identified as productive by the logistic component. The HS models were validated on an independent data set and estimates of potential yield of the Goro lagoon were compared. The effectiveness of the three approaches is then discussed in terms of predicted yield and identification of suitable sites for farming.     

Amplified exchange rate by tidal forcing of a piecewise-linear Helmholtz bay

Sea-level and current measurements have been performed in the Mok Bay, a tidal embayment in the Dutch Wadden Sea, situated on the island of Texel, the Netherlands. Characteristic for this estuary is its nonuniform hypsometry. Oscillations in both water level and inflow of the estuary were observed, with characteristic frequencies of 31 and 48 cycles per day. The significant change in basin shape between low and high water is the cause for the existence of these two frequencies of resonance. Due to its semi-enclosed nature, the basin could at both tidal phases be characterized as a Helmholtz resonator, albeit of different dimensions. Depth measurements were performed to find these characteristic dimensions of the estuary, allowing the determination of its theoretical Helmholtz frequencies. These estimates match to within 10% with the observed frequencies, and this deviation can partly be explained. Although sea level oscillations at these frequencies have small amplitude (of order 1 cm), the accompanying oscillatory flow at the entrance is of similar magnitude as the tidal flow. The water level measurements (spanning only 8 days of data) were therefore modeled using a piecewise-uniform hypsometry that approximates the real hypsometric curve well. The simplified semi-analytical piecewise-linear viscous Helmholtz model captures the observed combination of tidal and eigenoscillations well. However, despite its simplicity, this model is able to display nonlinear behavior for certain parameter values. This is because of the intrinsic nonlinearity that accompanies the matching of the low and high water phases. In the setting studied here, bifurcations up to period 13 were found. This nonlinear type of response may be of importance in facilitating an extra exchange of sediments and nutrients between the Bay and the sea.     

Use of incipient motion data for backward erosion piping models

Backward erosion piping involves the gradual removal of granular material under the action of water flow from the foundation of a dam or levee, whereby shallow pipes are formed that grow in the direction opposite to the flow. This pipe-forming process can ultimately lead to failure of a water-retaining structure and is considered one of the most important failure mechanisms for dikes and levees in the Netherlands and the United States. Modeling of this mechanism requires the assessment of hydraulic conditions in the pipe, which are controlled by the particle equilibrium at the pipe wall. Since the pipe's dimensions are controlled by the inflow to the pipe from the porous medium, the flow through the pipe is thought to be laminar for fine- to medium-grained sands. The literature provides data for incipient motion in laminar flow, which is reviewed here and complemented with data from backward erosion experiments. The experiments illustrate the applicability of the laminar incipient motion data to determine the erosion pipe dimensions and corresponding pipe hydraulics for fine- to medium-grained sands, for the purpose of backward erosion piping modeling.     

Evolution du spectre de la Nova Delphini 1967 dans le proche infrarouge en 1969

Spectra of Nova Del 1967 have been obtained in the photographic infrared during the period March to November 1969. The gradient in the region 1.3–1.7 µ^–1 has decreased from 3.06 in November 1968 to 2.57 in November 1969. The main spectral features occurring in the wavelength range 5800–9600 Å are described, while the profiles of some strong lines are displayed on Figures 2–6.

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Les observations ont été effectuées à l'Observatoire de Haute-Provence (CNRS).