基于贝叶斯模型的器测、古气候重建与气候模拟数据的融合试验

气象部门馆藏的西部最早的器测气象资料始于20世纪30年代,不能满足建立20世纪以来中国气候变化序列的需求,而古气候重建或气候模拟资料则可以延伸到器测时代以前。为了探讨长序列多源气候资料序列融合方法,采用贝叶斯方法对中国北疆地区8条树轮气温重建资料、器测资料与国际耦合模式比较计划第5阶段（CMIP5）模式模拟资料进行了融合试验。首先利用器测资料对气温代用资料进行校验与网格重建,并以此作为贝叶斯模型的先验分布,然后,用泰勒图选出了该区域气候模拟效果最佳的几个模式;最后将网格重建和气候模拟序列用贝叶斯模型进行了融合试验。结果表明,贝叶斯融合模型能有效提取各种数据来源的有用信息进行融合,融合结果的长期变化（线性）趋势更接近器测气候序列,并在一定程度上提高了序列的精度,减小了结果的不确定性;并且,融合结果能够纠正先验分布及气候模拟数据的明显偏差,为长年代气候序列重建提供了一个可行的思路。      

宜宾市宋家地区土壤元素背景值研究及其意义

作者在表层土壤系统采样调查的基础上,计算出宋家地区土壤元素地球化学背景值,并通过与不同区域土壤元素地球化学背景值、基准值的对比研究,总结了该区土壤元素地球化学基本特征,为该区土壤资源、环境评价和农业经济发展规划提供了实用地球化学信息。     

通过JSP和数据库技术实现ILS部分功能

在B／S系统中，使用JSP技术动态读取数据库的内容．帮助NETMEETING取得当前系统中的用户列表，定位用户位置．并提供相关信息，实现ILS的部分功能。     

Causes of rockfalls in Al-Huwayshah area,Yemen

According to topography of Yemen,most areas and villages are located at obligated crest,toe of mountain and under cliffs.Therefore Al-Huwayshah consisting of Tawilah sandstone group is characterized by steep slope reach to 90° in some areas.This area is affected by strong tectonic movements and faults that occurred during the geological epochs.This effect enhances to find out fractures and joints as well as the rocks become brittle and ready to slide depending on the position of area.And there are some frac...     

豫01井水位异常与地震的关系分析

针对2018年青海德令哈台尕海井水位破年变异常,系统梳理和分析该井相关资料,发现该井两套水位仪运行稳定、数据一致性非常好,而这段时期异常与降雨和气压不相关,以及井孔附近地区的视应力值较高,表明该地区地壳应力水平进一步增强。利用水位变幅、去趋势和一阶差分分析,结果显示,该项异常信度较高,反映该区域构造活动信息,是周边两次中等强度地震的共同前兆,属于中短期异常。     

Geochemical Characteristics and Significance of Basalt in the Hongshiyan Pb-Zn-Cu Polymetallic Deposit in Southeastern Yunnan Province

<正>1 Introduction Southeast Yunnan is the convergent place of the Yangtze,Indochina blocks(Xu Wei,et al.2008).The Hongshiyan Pb-Zn-Cu polymetallic deposit is located in Wenshan Prefecture,Yunnan Province.It is a typical large sized VMS-type deposit discovered in recent years.The major ore minerals are sphalerite,galena,chalcopyrite ect.     

Numerical study on dry deposition processes in canopy layer

A coupling model between the canopy layer (CL) and atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) for the study of dry deposition velocity is developed. The model consists of six parts: chemical species conservation equation including absorptive factor; the species uptake action including detailed vertical variation of absorptive element in CL; momen-tum exchange in CL which is represented by a first-order closure momentum equation with an additional larger-scale diffusive term; momentum exchange in ABL which is described by a complete set of the ABL turbulent statistic parameters; absorptivity (or solubility or reflection) at the surface including effects of the physical and chemi-cal characters of the species, land type, seasonal and diurnal variations of the meteorological variables; and deposition velocity derived by distributions of the species with height in CL. Variational rules of the concentration and deposi-tion velocity with both height and time are simulated with the model for both corn and forest canopies. Results pre-dicted with the bulk deposition velocity derived in the paper consist well with experimental data.     

Characteristics of Permeability Changes in Bituminous Coal Under Conditions of Stress Variation Due to Repeated Mining Activities

The factors affecting permeability change under repeated mining of coal seams are important study aspects that need to be explored. This study combined various stress variation characteristics of protective seam mining and simplified the stress path of repeated mining in protective seam mines. Based on the results from the bespoke gas flow and displacement testing apparatus, seepage tests for simulated repetitive mining were carried out. The results simulated the actual behavior very well. With any drastic increase in the mining influence, the axial deviation stress in the stress path increased, and the greater the difference in coal permeability during the unloading and stress recovery stage, the more substantial the increase in permeability. The change in coal permeability was significantly influenced by the severity of simulated repeated mining cycles. When the mining stress exceeded a critical value, the permeability of the coal sample increased with the increase in the number of loading and unloading cycles, but the reverse was true when the mining stress was lower than the critical value. The effective sensitivity of seepage to the applied stress decreased with an increase in the number of stress cycles. With a decrease in the deviation stress, that is, with lower severity of mining influence, the effective sensitivity of coal seepage to stress gradually decreased.