Climatic drivers of tree growth at tree line in Southwest Yukon change over time and vary between landscapes

Growth of trees at their altitudinal and latitudinal range limits is expected to increase as climate warms, but trees often exhibit unexplained spatial and temporal variation in climate-growth responses, particularly in alpine regions. Until this variability is explained, predictions of future tree growth are unlikely to be accurate. We sampled Picea glauca (white spruce) growing at forest and tree line on north and south aspects in two mountain ranges of southwest Yukon to determine how and why ring-width patterns vary between topographic settings, and over time. We used multivariate statistical analysis to characterize variation in ring-width patterns between topographic factors and time periods, and calculated correlations between ring-width indices and climate variables to explain this variation. Ring-width patterns varied more between mountain ranges than elevations or aspects, particularly in recent decades when ring-widths increased in one mountain range but not the other. Growth responses to summer temperature were notably weaker during warmer time periods, but growth was not positively correlated to summer precipitation, suggesting trees may not be suffering from temperature-induced drought stress. Rather, ring-width indices began responding positively to spring snow depth after 1976. We conclude that tree growth is unlikely to increase in synchrony with rising air temperatures across subarctic tree lines in southwest Yukon. Instead, they may decline in areas that are prone to thin snowpacks or rapid spring runoff due to the negative influence warming springs will have on snow depth and, consequently, early growing season soil moisture.     

Critical mechanisms for the formation of extreme arctic sea-ice extent in the summers of 2007 and 1996

Along with significant changes in the Arctic climate system, the largest year-to-year variation in sea-ice extent (SIE) has occurred in the Laptev, East Siberian, and Chukchi seas (defined here as the area of focus, AOF), among which the two highly contrasting extreme events were observed in the summers of 2007 and 1996 during the period 1979–2012. Although most efforts have been devoted to understanding the 2007 low, a contrasting high September SIE in 1996 might share some related but opposing forcing mechanisms. In this study, we investigate the mechanisms for the formation of these two extremes and quantitatively estimate the cloud-radiation-water vapor feedback to the sea-ice-concentration (SIC) variation utilizing satellite-observed sea-ice products and the NASA MERRA reanalysis. The low SIE in 2007 was associated with a persistent anticyclone over the Beaufort Sea coupled with low pressure over Eurasia, which induced anomalous southerly winds. Ample warm and moist air from the North Pacific was transported to the AOF and resulted in positive anomalies of cloud fraction (CF), precipitable water vapor (PWV), surface LWnet (down-up), total surface energy and temperature. In contrast, the high SIE event in 1996 was associated with a persistent low pressure over the central Arctic coupled with high pressure along the Eastern Arctic coasts, which generated anomalous northerly winds and resulted in negative anomalies of above mentioned atmospheric parameters. In addition to their immediate impacts on sea ice reduction, CF, PWV and radiation can interplay to lead to a positive feedback loop among them, which plays a critical role in reinforcing sea ice to a great low value in 2007. During the summer of 2007, the minimum SIC is 31 % below the climatic mean, while the maximum CF, LWnet and PWV can be up to 15 %, 20 Wm^?2, and 4 kg m^?3 above. The high anti-correlations (?0.79, ?0.61, ?0.61) between the SIC and CF, PWV, and LWnet indicate that CF, PWV and LW radiation are indeed having significant impacts on the SIC variation. A new record low occurred in the summer of 2012 was mainly triggered by a super storm over the central Arctic Ocean in early August that caused substantial mechanical ice deformation on top of the long-term thinning of an Arctic ice pack that had become more dominated by seasonal ice.     

Estimating present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the coastline of Australia: tropical cyclone-induced storm surges

The incidence of major storm surges in the last decade have dramatically emphasized the immense destructive capabilities of extreme water level events, particularly when driven by severe tropical cyclones. Given this risk, it is vitally important that the exceedance probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform risk-based flood and erosion management, engineering and for future land-use planning and to ensure the risk of catastrophic structural failures due to under-design or expensive wastes due to over-design are minimised. Australia has a long history of coastal flooding from tropical cyclones. Using a novel integration of two modeling techniques, this paper provides the first estimates of present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia, and the first estimates that combine the influence of astronomical tides, storm surges generated by both extra-tropical and tropical cyclones, and seasonal and inter-annual variations in mean sea level. Initially, an analysis of tide gauge records has been used to assess the characteristics of tropical cyclone-induced surges around Australia. However, given the dearth (temporal and spatial) of information around much of the coastline, and therefore the inability of these gauge records to adequately describe the regional climatology, an observationally based stochastic tropical cyclone model has been developed to synthetically extend the tropical cyclone record to 10,000 years. Wind and pressure fields derived for these synthetically generated events have then been used to drive a hydrodynamic model of the Australian continental shelf region with annual maximum water levels extracted to estimate exceedance probabilities around the coastline. To validate this methodology, selected historic storm surge events have been simulated and resultant storm surges compared with gauge records. Tropical cyclone induced exceedance probabilities have been combined with estimates derived from a 61-year water level hindcast described in a companion paper to give a single estimate of present day extreme water level probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia. Results of this work are freely available to coastal engineers, managers and researchers via a web-based tool (www.sealevelrise.info). The described methodology could be applied to other regions of the world, like the US east coast, that are subject to both extra-tropical and tropical cyclones.     

On the Performance of Multi-Instrument Solar Flare Observations During Solar Cycle 24

The current fleet of space-based solar observatories offers us a wealth of opportunities to study solar flares over a range of wavelengths. Significant advances in our understanding of flare physics often come from coordinated observations between multiple instruments. Consequently, considerable efforts have been, and continue to be, made to coordinate observations among instruments (e.g. through the Max Millennium Program of Solar Flare Research). However, there has been no study to date that quantifies how many flares have been observed by combinations of various instruments. Here we describe a technique that retrospectively searches archival databases for flares jointly observed by the Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI), Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO)/EUV Variability Experiment (EVE – Multiple EUV Grating Spectrograph (MEGS)-A and -B, Hinode/(EUV Imaging Spectrometer, Solar Optical Telescope, and X-Ray Telescope), and Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph (IRIS). Out of the 6953 flares of GOES magnitude C1 or greater that we consider over the 6.5 years after the launch of SDO, 40 have been observed by 6 or more instruments simultaneously. Using each instrument’s individual rate of success in observing flares, we show that the numbers of flares co-observed by 3 or more instruments are higher than the number expected under the assumption that the instruments operated independently of one another. In particular, the number of flares observed by larger numbers of instruments is much higher than expected. Our study illustrates that these missions often acted in cooperation, or at least had aligned goals. We also provide details on an interactive widget (Solar Flare Finder), now available in SSWIDL, which allows a user to search for flaring events that have been observed by a chosen set of instruments. This provides access to a broader range of events in order to answer specific science questions. The difficulty in scheduling coordinated observations for solar-flare research is discussed with respect to instruments projected to begin operations during Solar Cycle 25, such as the Daniel K. Inouye Solar Telescope, Solar Orbiter, and Parker Solar Probe.     

New snow metrics for a warming world

Snow is Earth's most climatically sensitive land cover type. Traditional snow metrics may not be able to adequately capture the changing nature of snow cover. For example, April 1 snow water equivalent (SWE) has been an effective index for streamflow forecasting, but it cannot express the effects of midwinter melt events, now expected in warming snow climates, nor can we assume that station-based measurements will be representative of snow conditions in future decades. Remote sensing and climate model data provide capacity for a suite of multi-use snow metrics from local to global scales. Such indicators need to be simple enough to “tell the story” of snowpack changes over space and time, but not overly simplistic or overly complicated in their interpretation. We describe a suite of spatially explicit, multi-temporal snow metrics based on global satellite data from NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and downscaled climate model output for the U.S. We describe and provide examples for Snow Cover Frequency (SCF), Snow Disappearance Date (SDD), At-Risk Snow (ARS), and Frequency of a Warm Winter (FWW). Using these retrospective and prospective snow metrics, we assess the current and future snow-related conditions in three hydroclimatically different U.S. watersheds: the Truckee, Colorado Headwaters, and Upper Connecticut. In the two western U.S. watersheds, SCF and SDD show greater sensitivity to annual differences in snow cover compared with data from the ground-based Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL) network. The eastern U.S. watershed does not have a ground-based network of data, so these MODIS-derived metrics provide uniquely valuable snow information. The ARS and FWW metrics show that the Truckee Watershed is highly vulnerable to conversion from snowfall to rainfall (ARS) and midwinter melt events (FWW) throughout the seasonal snow zone. In comparison, the Colorado Headwaters and Upper Connecticut Watersheds are colder and much less vulnerable through mid- and late-century.     

Approximate analysis methods for asymmetric plan base‐isolated buildings

An approximate method for linear analysis of asymmetric‐plan, multistorey buildings is specialized for a single‐storey, base‐isolated structure. To find the mode shapes of the torsionally coupled system, the Rayleigh–Ritz procedure is applied using the torsionally uncoupled modes as Ritz vectors. This approach reduces to analysis of two single‐storey systems, each with vibration properties and eccentricities (labelled ‘effective eccentricities’) similar to corresponding properties of the isolation system or the fixed‐base structure. With certain assumptions, the vibration properties of the coupled system can be expressed explicitly in terms of these single‐storey system properties. Three different methods are developed: the first is a direct application of the Rayleigh–Ritz procedure; the second and third use simplifications for the effective eccentricities, assuming a relatively stiff superstructure. The accuracy of these proposed methods and the rigid structure method in determining responses are assessed for a range of system parameters including eccentricity and structure flexibility. For a subset of systems with equal isolation and structural eccentricities, two of the methods are exact and the third is sufficiently accurate; all three are preferred to the rigid structure method. For systems with zero isolation eccentricity, however, all approximate methods considered are inconsistent and should be applied with caution, only to systems with small structural eccentricities or stiff structures. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Decadal and seasonal changes in landcover at Padre Island: Implications for the role of the back-barrier in signaling island state change

Long-term and seasonal geomorphological changes at Padre Island, Texas are identified and linked with potential external drivers. Aerial and satellite images from 1950 to 2018, monthly images from 2019 to 2020, and a 2018 LiDAR data set are used to assess long-term and seasonal geomorphological changes within a 50 km² area of Padre Island near Port Mansfield, Texas. Trends in landcover are evaluated by mapping and comparing the relative areal coverage of each facies. Vegetated dunes, absent initially, emerged in the fore-island and expanded into the back-barrier to cover 14% of the study area. The active vegetation-free back-barrier dune field steadily decreased in areal extent from 12% to 6% as vegetation spread. Nebkha dune coverage fluctuated between 4% and 7%. Expansive microbial mats colonized the wind tidal and deflation flats surrounding the vegetated dunes and back-barrier dune field giving rise to a remarkably different landscape over the 50-year period studied. An assessment of external forcing factors identifies increased rates of relative sea level rise and decreased sediment influx as the most likely primary factors driving the geomorphological changes. These changes have induced a widespread shift toward stabilization of island sediments by vegetation and microbial mats, which in turn has starved the back-barrier of sediments resulting in low rates of accretion and increased flooding. These findings highlight the sensitivity of the back-barrier and, in particular, the dune facies to changes in sea level and sediment supply, and show that microbial mats are effective at stabilizing island sediments and may be harbingers to barrier island response to rising sea level. As shown in this study, long-term monitoring of geomorphic facies changes and topography can detect important shifts in the island state that can be used to inform decision making for these sensitive coastal landscapes.     

Efficacy of Annual Bacteria Monitoring and Shock Chlorination in Wells Finished in a Floodplain Aquifer

Public health authorities generally recommend annual water-quality monitoring of rural water wells and shock chlorination if coliforms are detected. It is implicitly assumed that shock chlorination is effective in ridding most wells of bacteriological pathogens for months to years. Neither annual monitoring nor shock chlorination was effective in addressing coliform contamination of selected water wells in a small town developed on an alluvial aquifer where septic system effluents are impacting well water quality. Considerable temporal variation in total and fecal coliforms was observed in water wells monitored for a six-month period. Individual wells intermittently met and exceeded the drinking water criteria, indicating annual sampling was insufficient. Shock chlorination of three contaminated wells and their associated distribution systems proved ineffective because colonies apparently originated from outside the wells and reappeared over relatively short time periods (ranging from less than one week up to 21 weeks). The relatively fast and similar rate of recovery of total heterotrophic bacteria suggested they are related to biofilm formation in the wells and not to ground water contamination.     

Channel response to a dam-removal sediment pulse captured at high-temporal resolution using routine gage data

In this study, we captured how a river channel responds to a sediment pulse originating from a dam removal using multiple lines of evidence derived from streamflow gages along the Patapsco River, Maryland, USA. Gages captured characteristics of the sediment pulse, including travel times of its leading edge (~7.8 km yr⁻¹) and peak (~2.6 km yr⁻¹) and suggest both translation and increasing dispersion. The pulse also changed local hydraulics and energy conditions, increasing flow velocities and Froude number, due to bed fining, homogenization and/or slope adjustment. Immediately downstream of the dam, recovery to pre-pulse conditions occurred within the year, but farther downstream recovery was slower, with the tail of the sediment pulse working through the lower river by the end of the study 7 years later. The patterns and timing of channel change associated with the sediment pulse were not driven by large flow or suspended sediment-transporting events, with change mostly occurring during lower flows. This suggests pulse mobility was controlled by process-factors largely independent of high flow. In contrast, persistent changes occurred to out-of-channel flooding dynamics. Stage associated with flooding increased during the arrival of the sediment pulse, 1 to 2 years after dam removal, suggesting persistent sediment deposition at the channel margins and nearby floodplain. This resulted in National Weather Service-indicated flood stages being attained by 3–43% smaller discharges compared to earlier in the study period. This study captured a two-signal response from the sediment pulse: (1) short- to medium-term (weeks to months) translation and dispersion within the channel, resulting in aggradation and recovery of bed elevations and changing local hydraulics; and (2) dispersion and persistent longer-term (years) effects of sediment deposition on overbank surfaces. This study further demonstrated the utility of US Geological Survey gage data to quantify geomorphic change, increase temporal resolution, and provide insights into trajectories of change over varying spatial and temporal scales.     

Connectivity of post-fire runoff and sediment from nested hillslopes and watersheds

Wildfire increases the potential connectivity of runoff and sediment throughout watersheds due to greater bare soil, runoff and erosion as compared to pre-fire conditions. This research examines the connectivity of post-fire runoff and sediment from hillslopes (< 1.5 ha; n = 31) and catchments (< 1000 ha; n = 10) within two watersheds (< 1500 ha) burned by the 2012 High Park Fire in northcentral Colorado, USA. Our objectives were to: (1) identify sources and quantify magnitudes of post-fire runoff and erosion at nested hillslopes and watersheds for two rain storms with varied duration, intensity and antecedent precipitation; and (2) assess the factors affecting the magnitude and connectivity of runoff and sediment across spatial scales for these two rain storms. The two summer storms that are the focus of this research occurred during the third summer after burning. The first storm had low intensity rainfall over 11 hours (return interval <1–2 years), whereas the second event had high intensity rainfall over 1 hour (return interval <1–10 years). The lower intensity storm was preceded by high antecedent rainfall and led to low hillslope sediment yields and channel incision at most locations, whereas the high intensity storm led to infiltration-excess overland flow, high sediment yields, in-stream sediment deposition and channel substrate fining. For both storms, hillslope-to-stream sediment delivery ratios and area-normalised cross-sectional channel change increased with the percent of catchment that burned at high severity. For the high intensity storm, hillslope-to-stream sediment delivery ratios decreased with unconfined channel length (%). The findings quantify post-fire connectivity and sediment delivery from hillslopes and streams, and highlight how different types of storms can cause varying magnitues and spatial patterns of sediment transport and deposition from hillslopes through stream channel networks.