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101.
Jieshun Zhu Bohua Huang Magdalena A. Balmaseda James L. Kinter III Peitao Peng Zeng-Zhen Hu Lawrence Marx 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(9-10):2785-2795
Currently, ensemble seasonal forecasts using a single model with multiple perturbed initial conditions generally suffer from an “overconfidence” problem, i.e., the ensemble evolves such that the spread among members is small, compared to the magnitude of the mean error. This has motivated the use of a multi-model ensemble (MME), a technique that aims at sampling the structural uncertainty in the forecasting system. Here we investigate how the structural uncertainty in the ocean initial conditions impacts the reliability in seasonal forecasts, by using a new ensemble generation method to be referred to as the multiple-ocean analysis ensemble (MAE) initialization. In the MAE method, multiple ocean analyses are used to build an ensemble of ocean initial states, thus sampling structural uncertainties in oceanic initial conditions (OIC) originating from errors in the ocean model, the forcing flux, and the measurements, especially in areas and times of insufficient observations, as well as from the dependence on data assimilation methods. The merit of MAE initialization is demonstrated by the improved El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasting reliability. In particular, compared with the atmospheric perturbation or lagged ensemble approaches, the MAE initialization more effectively enhances ensemble dispersion in ENSO forecasting. A quantitative probabilistic measure of reliability also indicates that the MAE method performs better in forecasting all three (warm, neutral and cold) categories of ENSO events. In addition to improving seasonal forecasts, the MAE strategy may be used to identify the characteristics of the current structural uncertainty and as guidance for improving the observational network and assimilation strategy. Moreover, although the MAE method is not expected to totally correct the overconfidence of seasonal forecasts, our results demonstrate that OIC uncertainty is one of the major sources of forecast overconfidence, and suggest that the MAE is an essential component of an MME system. 相似文献
102.
Clive R. Neal Matthew D. Hacker Gregory A. Snyder Lawrence A. Taylor Yun-Gang Liu Roman A. Schmitt 《Meteoritics & planetary science》1994,29(3):349-361
Abstract— The petrogenesis of Apollo 12 mare basalts has been examined with emphasis on trace-element ratios and abundances. Vitrophyric basalts were used as parental compositions for the modelling, and proportions of fractionating phases were determined using the MAGFOX program of Longhi (1991). Crystal fractionation processes within crustal and sub-crustal magma chambers are evaluated as a function of pressure. Knowledge of the fractionating phases allows trace-element variations to be considered as either source related or as a product of post-magma-generation processes. For the ilmenite and olivine basalts, trace-element variations are inherited from the source, but the pigeonite basalt data have been interpreted with open-system evolution processes through crustal assimilation. Three groups of basalts have been examined: (1) Pigeonite basalts — produced by the assimilation of lunar crustal material by a parental melt (up to 3% assimilation and 10% crystal fractionation, with an “r” value of 0.3). (2) Ilmenite basalts — produced by variable degrees of partial melting (4–8%) of a source of olivine, pigeonite, augite, and plagioclase, brought together by overturn of the Lunar Magma Ocean (LMO) cumulate pile. After generation, which did not exhaust any of the minerals in the source, these melts experienced closed-system crystal fractionation/accumulation. (3) Olivine basalts — produced by variable degrees of partial melting (5–10%) of a source of olivine, pigeonite, and augite. After generation, again without exhausting any of the minerals in the source, these melts evolved through crystal accumulation. The evolved liquid counterparts of these cumulates have not been sampled. The source compositions for the ilmenite and olivine basalts were calculated by assuming that the vitrophyric compositions were primary and the magmas were produced by non-modal batch melting. Although the magnitude is unclear, evaluation of these source regions indicates that both be composed of early- and late-stage Lunar Magma Ocean (LMO) cumulates, requiring an overturn of the cumulate pile. 相似文献
103.
104.
The Total Irradiance Monitor (TIM) instrument is designed to measure total solar irradiance with an absolute accuracy of 100
parts per million. Four electrical substitution radiometers behind precision apertures measure input radiant power while providing
redundancy. Duty cycling the use of the radiometers tracks degradation of the nickel-phosphorous absorptive black radiometer
interiors caused by solar exposure. Phase sensitive detection at the shutter frequency reduces noise and simplifies the estimate
of the radiometer's equivalence ratio. An as-designed uncertainty budget estimates the instrument's accuracy goal. The TIM
measurement equation defines the conversion from measured signal to solar irradiance. 相似文献
105.
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107.
Bruce E. Frey J.Rubén Lara-Lara Lawrence F. Small 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》1983,17(2):213-218
The eruption of Mt Saint Helens on 18 May 1980 resulted in a massive increase in suspended particulate material in the Columbia River Estuary, producing a substantial increase in light attenuation. Since photosynthesis in the estuarine water column is partly controlled by the depth of light penetration in the water, photosynthesis was reduced by about 75% during the period of increased turbidity. It took about five weeks for the estuary to clear. Although primary production within the estuarine water column was greatly diminished during this period, the flux of particulate carbon through the estuary was high, and the total production we estimate to have been lost amounted to only about 2% of the total particulate carbon flux just after the eruption. That the high levels of turbidity in the estuary did not induce a severe fall in the phytoplankton population is evidence that phytoplankton biomass concentrations in the Columbia River Estuary are mostly a function of import from the Columbia River, rather than a function of in situ production. 相似文献
108.
109.
110.
Henry W. Lawrence 《The Professional geographer》1988,40(2):159-175
Different types of farming in metropolitan areas show both negative and positive responses to urban and nonurban forces of change. The variety of impacts has been neglected by most spatial intensity models and land use studies. This study examines census data from 1949 to 1982 in seven major U.S. metropolitan areas for six commodity types to detect regular patterns of changes in sales value, area harvested, number of animals, and intensity of production. Results show large declines in dairy farming, followed by poultry and fruit and nuts; some recent recovery in vegetable crops; and steady increases in both low value field crops and high value horticultural specialties. A trend toward polarization of metropolitan agriculture is indicated. Results also show differences between inner and outer urban fringe areas and a decline in the differential in intensity of production between metropolitan and non-metropolitan agriculture. 相似文献