Cases-97: Late-Morning Warming And Moistening Of The Convective Boundary Layer Over The Walnut River Watershed

Aircraft, radiosonde, surface-flux, and boundary-layer windprofiler data from the Cooperative Atmosphere Surface Exchange Study's 1997 field project, CASES-97, are combined with synoptic data to study the evolution of the vertically-averaged mixed-layerpotential temperature []and mixing-ratio [Q] onthree nearly-cloudless days from 1000 CST to 1200CST (local noon is approximately 1230 CST). This was achieved through examination of the terms in the time-tendency (`budget')equations for []and [Q]. We estimate three of the terms –local time rate of change, vertical flux divergence, andhorizontal advection. For the [Q]-budget, vertical flux divergence usually dominates, buthorizontal advection is significant on one of the three days. The [Q]-budget balances for two of the three days to within the large experimental error. For the -budget,vertical flux divergence accounts for most of the morningwarming, with horizontal advection of secondary importance.The residual in the -budget has the same sign for all three days, indicating that not all the heating is accounted for. We can balance the []-budgets to within experimental error on two of the three days by correcting the vertical-flux divergence for apparent low biases in the flux measurements of one of the aircraft and in the surface fluxes, and accounting for direct heating of the mixed layer by radiative flux divergence allowing for the effects of carbonaceous aerosols. The [];-budget with these corrections also balances on the third day if horizontal gradients from synoptic maps are used to estimate the horizontal advection. However, the corrected budget for this day does not balance if the horizontal gradient in the advection term is estimated using CASES-97aircraft and radiosondes; we suggest that persistent mesoscale circulations led to an overestimate of the horizontal gradient andhence horizontal advection.     

Modelling Watersheds as Spatial Object Hierarchies: Structure and Dynamics

The generation, transport and fate of non-point source pollutants in surface water systems is recognized as a major threat to water supplies, aquatic and coastal ecosystems. The transformation and movement of water, carbon and nutrients through watersheds integrates a set of ecosystem processes along hydrologic flowpaths. Human individual and institutional interactions with these processes involve direct addition or abstraction of these substances, or the alteration of land cover and drainage systems. In natural and developed catchments, these processes often vary at granularities ranging from below the level of a hillslope, up through regional watersheds. This suggests the need for the development of hierarchical analysis tools that can address the integration of a set of biophysical, biogeochemical and socioeconomic processes over a spectrum of scales. We describe and illustrate the use of a watershed model implemented as a spatial object hierarchy, representing successively contained landform classes associated with class specific processes as member functions. The model has been linked in a range of looser and tighter couplings with GRASS and ArcView, supplemented by specific terrain analytical functions. We illustrate the data and model system for an instrumented catchment monitored as part of the Baltimore Ecosystem Study (BES), a Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) site centering on integrated carbon, water and nutrient cycling.     

Profiles of Fecal Porphyrins in River Otters Following the Exxon Valdez Oil Spill

Median levels of Coproporphyrin III (Copro III) in fecal samples of river otters (Lontra canadensis) collected from an oiled area in Prince William Sound, Alaska, USA, during 1990 were significantly higher than in samples collected from the same oiled area during 1996 (p=0.011, one way analysis of variance), a nonoiled reference area in Prince William Sound during 1996 (p=0.002) and a reference area in southeast Alaska during 1998 (p=0.004). An overall test of significance that combined probabilities from the statistical analysis of this porphyrin study with those from other biomarker studies revealed a significant difference in physiological response of river otters between oiled and nonoiled areas of the Sound for 1990 (p < 0.01). We demonstrated that changes in levels of fecal porphyrins may serve as a biomarker that may contribute to a health assessment of wild river otters.     

The influence of dimensionality on simulations of mass recovery from nonuniform dense non-aqueous phase liquid (DNAPL) source zones

The influence of model dimensionality on predictions of mass recovery from dense non-aqueous phase liquid (DNAPL) source zones in nonuniform permeability fields was investigated using a modified version of the modular three-dimensional transport simulator (MT3DMS). Thirty-two initial two- (2D) and three-dimensional (3D) tetrachloroethene–DNAPL source zone architectures, taken from a recent modeling study, were used as initial conditions for this analysis. Commonly employed source zone metrics were analyzed to determine differences between 2D and 3D predictions: (i) down-gradient flux-averaged contaminant concentration, (ii) reductions in contaminant mass flux through a down-gradient boundary, (iii) source zone ganglia-to-pool (GTP) ratio, and (iv) time required to achieve a remediation objective. 3D flux-averaged contaminant concentrations were approximately 3.5 times lower than concentrations simulated in 2D. This difference was attributed to dilution of the contaminant concentrations down gradient of the source zone. Contaminant flux reduction predictions for a given mass recovery were generally 5% higher in 3D simulations than in 2D simulations. The GTP ratio declined over time as mass was recovered in both 2D and 3D simulations. Although the source longevity (i.e., time required to achieve 99.99% mass recovery) differed between individual 2D and 3D realizations, the mean source longevity for the 2D and 3D simulation ensembles was within 2%. 2D simulations tended to over-predict the time required to achieve lower mass recovery levels (e.g. 50% mass recovery) due to a smaller contaminated area exposed to uncontaminated water. These findings suggest that ensemble averages of 2D numerical simulations of DNAPL migration, entrapment, dissolution, and mass recovery in statistically homogenous, nonuniform media may provide reasonable approximations to average behavior obtained using simulations conducted in fully three-dimensional domains.     

The influence of human activity in the Arctic on climate and climate impacts

Human activities in the Arctic are often mentioned as recipients of climate-change impacts. In this paper we consider the more complicated but more likely possibility that human activities themselves can interact with climate or environmental change in ways that either mitigate or exacerbate the human impacts. Although human activities in the Arctic are generally assumed to be modest, our analysis suggests that those activities may have larger influences on the arctic system than previously thought. Moreover, human influences could increase substantially in the near future. First, we illustrate how past human activities in the Arctic have combined with climatic variations to alter biophysical systems upon which fisheries and livestock depend. Second, we describe how current and future human activities could precipitate or affect the timing of major transitions in the arctic system. Past and future analyses both point to ways in which human activities in the Arctic can substantially influence the trajectory of arctic system change.     

Prediction of thermal conductivity in reservoir rocks using fabric theory

An accurate prediction of the thermal conductivity of reservoir rocks in the subsurface is extremely important for a quantitative analysis of basin thermal history and hydrocarbon maturation. A model for calculating the thermal conductivity of reservoir rocks as a function of mineral composition, porosity, fluid type, and temperature has been developed based on fabric theory and experimental data. The study indicates that thermal conductivities of reservoir rocks are dependent on the volume fraction of components (minerals, porosity, and fluids), the temperature, and the fraction of series elements (FSE) which represents the way that the mineral components aggregate. The sensitivity test of the fabric model shows that quartz is the most sensitive mineral for the thermal conductivity of clastic rocks. The study results indicate that the FSE value is very critical. Different lithologies have different optimum FSE values because of different textures and sedimentary structures. The optimum FSE values are defined as those which result in the least error in the model computation of the thermal conductivity of the rocks. These values are 0.444 for water-saturated clay rocks, 0.498 for water-saturated sandstones, and 0.337 for water-saturated carbonates. Compared with the geometric mean model, the fabric model yields better results for the thermal conductivity, largely because the model parameters can be adjusted to satisfy different lithologies and to minimize the mean errors. The fabric model provides a good approach for estimating paleothermal conductivity in complex rock systems based on the mineral composition and pore fluid saturation of the rocks.     

Axtell,a new CV3 chondrite find from Texas

Abstract— We describe a previously unreported meteorite found in Axtell, Texas, in 1943. Based on the mineralogical composition and texture of its matrix and the sizes and abundance of chondrules, we classify it as a CV3 carbonaceous chondrite. The dominant opaque phase in the chondrules is magnetite, and that in refractory inclusions is Ni-rich NiFe metal (awaruite). Axtell, therefore, belongs to the oxidized subgroup of CV3 chondrites, although unlike Allende it escaped strong sulfidation. The meteorite bears a strong textural resemblance to Allende, and its chondrule population and matrix appear to be quite similar to those of Allende, but its refractory inclusions, thermoluminescence properties, and cosmogenic ⁶⁰Co abundances are not. Our data are consistent with a terrestrial age for Axtell of ～100 years and a metamorphic grade slightly lower than that of Allende.     

Improved reliability of ENSO hindcasts with multi-ocean analyses ensemble initialization

Currently, ensemble seasonal forecasts using a single model with multiple perturbed initial conditions generally suffer from an “overconfidence” problem, i.e., the ensemble evolves such that the spread among members is small, compared to the magnitude of the mean error. This has motivated the use of a multi-model ensemble (MME), a technique that aims at sampling the structural uncertainty in the forecasting system. Here we investigate how the structural uncertainty in the ocean initial conditions impacts the reliability in seasonal forecasts, by using a new ensemble generation method to be referred to as the multiple-ocean analysis ensemble (MAE) initialization. In the MAE method, multiple ocean analyses are used to build an ensemble of ocean initial states, thus sampling structural uncertainties in oceanic initial conditions (OIC) originating from errors in the ocean model, the forcing flux, and the measurements, especially in areas and times of insufficient observations, as well as from the dependence on data assimilation methods. The merit of MAE initialization is demonstrated by the improved El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasting reliability. In particular, compared with the atmospheric perturbation or lagged ensemble approaches, the MAE initialization more effectively enhances ensemble dispersion in ENSO forecasting. A quantitative probabilistic measure of reliability also indicates that the MAE method performs better in forecasting all three (warm, neutral and cold) categories of ENSO events. In addition to improving seasonal forecasts, the MAE strategy may be used to identify the characteristics of the current structural uncertainty and as guidance for improving the observational network and assimilation strategy. Moreover, although the MAE method is not expected to totally correct the overconfidence of seasonal forecasts, our results demonstrate that OIC uncertainty is one of the major sources of forecast overconfidence, and suggest that the MAE is an essential component of an MME system.     

Sensitivity of sea ice to wind-stress and radiative forcing since 1500: a model study of the Little Ice Age and beyond

Three different reconstructed wind-stress fields which take into account variations of the North Atlantic Oscillation, one general circulation model wind-stress field, and three radiative forcings (volcanic activity, insolation changes and greenhouse gas changes) are used with the UVic Earth System Climate Model to simulate the surface air temperature, the sea-ice cover, and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) since 1500, a period which includes the Little Ice Age (LIA). The simulated Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature, used for model validation, agrees well with several temperature reconstructions. The simulated sea-ice cover in each hemisphere responds quite differently to the forcings. In the Northern Hemisphere, the simulated sea-ice area and volume during the LIA are larger than the present-day area and volume. The wind-driven changes in sea-ice area are about twice as large as those due to thermodynamic (i.e., radiative) forcing. For the sea-ice volume, changes due to wind forcing and thermodynamics are of similar magnitude. Before 1850, the simulations suggest that volcanic activity was mainly responsible for the thermodynamically produced area and volume changes, while after 1900 the slow greenhouse gas increase was the main driver of the sea-ice changes. Changes in insolation have a small effect on the sea ice throughout the integration period. The export of the thicker sea ice during the LIA has no significant effect on the maximum strength of the AMOC. A more important process in altering the maximum strength of the AMOC and the sea-ice thickness is the wind-driven northward ocean heat transport. In the Southern Hemisphere, there are no visible long-term trends in the simulated sea-ice area or volume since 1500. The wind-driven changes are roughly four times larger than those due to radiative forcing. Prior to 1800, all the radiative forcings could have contributed to the thermodynamically driven changes in area and volume. In the 1800s the volcanic forcing was dominant, and during the first part of the 1900s both the insolation changes and the greenhouse gas forcing are responsible for thermodynamically produced changes. Finally, in the latter part of the 1900s the greenhouse gas forcing is the dominant factor in determining the sea-ice changes in the Southern Hemisphere.