Climatic trends and impact of climate change on agriculture in an arid Andean valley

Little is known about climate change and its impacts for the arid coastal and mountainous regions in northern Chile. The Elqui river basin, part of the Norte Chico of Chile between 27oS and 33oS latitude, is located south of the hyper-arid Atacama desert. Despite water scarcity, agricultural development in this region has been enhanced by agronomic practices and the marketing of valuable products. This paper characterizes the actual climate conditions and presents an overview and analyses of past climate variability, and future possible climate trends, emphasizing those relevant to agriculture. Precipitation shows an important decrease during the first decades of the past century. Runoff shows decreasing trends for the first half of the past century and increases for 1960 to 1985. Drought appears to be increasing. Statistical downscaling was accomplished using the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator. Both future periods of 2011 to 2030 and 2046–65 showed trends to higher minimum and maximum temperature. The number of hot days (maximum temperature greater than or equal to 30°C) has a strong increasing trend during October to April. Even though the downscaled results for precipitation do not show trends, the continuation of the present trend of low amounts is a concern. We discuss some implications of climatic changes for agriculture and we emphasize the importance of adaptation, especially to deal with water scarcity.     

The effect of Congo River freshwater discharge on Eastern Equatorial Atlantic climate variability

The surface ocean explains a considerable part of the inter-annual Tropical Atlantic variability. The present work makes use of observational datasets to investigate the effect of freshwater flow on sea surface salinity (SSS) and temperature (SST) in the Gulf of Guinea. In particular, the Congo River discharges a huge amount of freshwater into the ocean, affecting SSS in the Eastern Equatorial Atlantic (EEA) and stratifying the surface layers. The hypothesis is that an excess of river runoff emphasize stratification, influencing the ocean temperature. In fact, our findings show that SSTs in the Gulf of Guinea are warmer in summers following an anomalously high Congo spring discharge. Vice versa, when the river discharges low freshwater, a cold anomaly appears in the Gulf. The response of SST is not linear: temperature anomalies are considerable and long-lasting in the event of large freshwater flow, while in dry years they are less remarkable, although still significant. An excess of freshwater seems able to form a barrier layer, which inhibits vertical mixing and the entrainment of the cold thermocline water into the surface. Other processes may contribute to SST variability, among which the net input of atmospheric freshwater falling over EEA. Likewise the case of continental runoff from Congo River, warm anomalies occur after anomalously rainy seasons and low temperatures follow dry seasons, confirming the effect of freshwater on SST. However, the two sources of freshwater anomaly are not in phase, so that it is possible to split between atypical SST following continental freshwater anomalies and rainfall anomalies. Also, variations in air-sea fluxes can produce heating and cooling of the Gulf of Guinea. Nevertheless, atypical SSTs cannot be ascribed to fluxes, since the temperature variation induced by them is not sufficient to explain the SST anomalies appearing in the Gulf after anomalous peak discharges. The interaction processes between river runoff, sea surface salinity and temperature play an effective role in the interannual variability in the EEA region. Our results add a new source of variability in the area, which was often neglected by previous studies.     

Strategies to mitigate aliasing of loading signals while estimating GPS frame parameters

Although GNSS techniques are theoretically sensitive to the Earth center of mass, it is often preferable to remove intrinsic origin and scale information from the estimated station positions since they are known to be affected by systematic errors. This is usually done by estimating the parameters of a linearized similarity transformation which relates the quasi-instantaneous frames to a long-term frame such as the International Terrestrial Reference Frame (ITRF). It is well known that non-linear station motions can partially alias into these parameters. We discuss in this paper some procedures that may allow reducing these aliasing effects in the case of the GPS techniques. The options include the use of well-distributed sub-networks for the frame transformation estimation, the use of site loading corrections, a modification of the stochastic model by downweighting heights, or the joint estimation of the low degrees of the deformation field. We confirm that the standard approach consisting of estimating the transformation over the whole network is particularly harmful for the loading signals if the network is not well distributed. Downweighting the height component, using a uniform sub-network, or estimating the deformation field perform similarly in drastically reducing the amplitude of the aliasing effect. The application of these methods to reprocessed GPS terrestrial frames permits an assessment of the level of agreement between GPS and our loading model, which is found to be about 1.5 mm WRMS in height and 0.8 mm WRMS in the horizontal at the annual frequency. Aliased loading signals are not the main source of discrepancies between loading displacement models and GPS position time series.     

Uncertainties in European summer precipitation changes: role of large scale circulation

Climate models suggest that anthropogenic emissions are likely to induce an important drying during summer over most of Europe in the late 21st century. However, the amplitude of the associated decrease in precipitation strongly varies among the different climate models. In order to reduce this spread, it is first necessary to identify its causes and the associated physical mechanisms. Consequently, the focus of this paper is to better estimate the role of large scale circulation (LSC) in precipitation changes over Europe using a multi-model framework and then to characterize the LSC changes using the weather regime paradigm. We show that LSC changes directly lead to a decrease of precipitation over northwestern Europe. This circulation-driven decrease in rainfall is mainly linked to an increase (decrease) of the occurrence of positive (negative) phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation regime. LSC is also responsible for a significant part of the models spread in precipitation changes over these regions. Over southern Europe, the role of LSC changes on multi-model mean precipitation changes is generally weak. We also show that the precipitation anomalies directly induced by LSC modifications seem to be further amplified through local feedbacks.     

Influence of Thermal Effects on the Wind Field Within the Urban Environment

Micrometeorological conditions in the vicinity of urban buildings strongly influence the requirements that are imposed on building heating and cooling. The goal of the present study, carried out within the Advance Tools for Rational Energy Use towards Sustainability (ATREUS) European research network, is the evaluation of the wind field around buildings with walls heated by solar radiation. Two computational fluid dynamics (CFD) codes were validated against extensive wind-tunnel observations to assess the influence of thermal effects on model performance. The code selected from this validation was used to simulate the wind and temperature fields for a summer day in a specific region of the city of Lisbon. For this study, the meteorological data produced by a non-hydrostatic mesoscale atmospheric model (MM5) were used as boundary conditions for a CFD code, which was further applied to analyze the effects of local roughness elements and thermodynamic conditions on the air flow around buildings. The CFD modelling can also provide the inflow parameters for a Heating, Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC) system, used to evaluate the building energy budgets and to predict performance of the air-conditioning system. The main finding of the present three-dimensional analyses is that thermal forcing associated with the heating of buildings can significantly modify local properties of the air flow.     

A chemical and thermodynamic model of oil generation in hydrocarbon source rocks

Thermodynamic calculations and Gibbs free energy minimization computer experiments strongly support the hypothesis that kerogen maturation and oil generation are inevitable consequences of oxidation/reduction disproportionation reactions caused by prograde metamorphism of hydrocarbon source rocks with increasing depth of burial.These experiments indicate that oxygen and hydrogen are conserved in the process.Accordingly, if water is stable and present in the source rock at temperatures ?25 but ?100 °C along a typical US Gulf Coast geotherm, immature (reduced) kerogen with a given atomic hydrogen to carbon ratio (H/C) melts incongruently with increasing temperature and depth of burial to produce a metastable equilibrium phase assemblage consisting of naphthenic/biomarker-rich crude oil, a type-II/III kerogen with an atomic hydrogen/carbon ratio (H/C) of ∼1, and water. Hence, this incongruent melting process promotes diagenetic reaction of detritus in the source rock to form authigenic mineral assemblages.However, in the water-absent region of the system CHO (which is extensive), any water initially present or subsequently entering the source rock is consumed by reaction with the most mature kerogen with the lowest H/C it encounters to form CO₂ gas and a new kerogen with higher H/C and O/C, both of which are in metastable equilibrium with one another.This hydrolytic disproportionation process progressively increases both the concentration of the solute in the aqueous phase, and the oil generation potential of the source rock; i.e., the new kerogen can then produce more crude oil.Petroleum is generated with increasing temperature and depth of burial of hydrocarbon source rocks in which water is not stable in the system CHO by a series of irreversible disproportionation reactions in which kerogens with higher (H/C)s melt incongruently to produce metastable equilibrium assemblages consisting of crude oil, CO₂ gas, and a more mature (oxidized) kerogen with a lower H/C which in turn melts incongruently with further burial to produce more crude oil, CO₂ gas, and a kerogen with a lower H/C and so forth.The petroleum generated in the process progresses from heavy naphthenic crude oils at low temperatures to mature petroleum at ∼150 °C. For example, the results of Computer Experiment 27 (see below) indicate that the overall incongruent melting reaction in the water-absent region of the system C-H-O at 150 °C and a depth of ∼4.3 km of an immature type-II/III kerogen with a bulk composition represented by C₂₉₂H₂₈₈O_12(c) to produce a mature (oxidized) kerogen represented by C₁₂₈H₆₈O_7(c), together with a typical crude oil with an average metastable equilibrium composition corresponding to C_8.8H_16.9 (C_8.8H_16.9(l)) and CO₂ gas (CO_2(g)) can be described by writing

(A)     

Effect of alpha-damage annealing on apatite (U–Th)/He thermochronology

Recent data on He diffusion challenge the temperature sensitivity of apatite (U–Th)/He thermochronology: the damage induced by recoil of U and Th decay series during emission of α particles (α-recoil damage) has been proposed to modify He-diffusion properties through time. However, we propose that annealing of these irradiation defects may be an important phenomenon and may be significant in case of slowly-cooled or reheated basement rocks. To test this hypothesis, we developed a quantitative model including an explicit treatment of α-recoil damage, annealing, and their effect on He-diffusion kinetics, and calibrate it against literature data. Our model is based on two hypotheses: (1) helium is in equilibrium between an apatite crystal and its defects and (2) alpha-recoil damage annealing can be described analogously to fission-track annealing. This model has been embedded into a Monte Carlo simulation of helium production/ejection/diffusion and applied to data from the French Massif Central; a complex slowly-cooled terrain with burial reheating, where the thermal history has been constrained by previous fission-track (FT) data including FT length distributions. (U–Th)/He ages are close to the FT ages from the same samples and are generally reproducible among replicates, but some samples present He-age dispersion that is not correlated with crystal size. Our model reproduces the Massif Central data very well except for three samples where He ages are older than corresponding FT ages. We show that annealing of irradiation damage has an important impact on retentivity of helium and that the He content, [He] is only a rough approximation of the damage level. In particular our results show that independence of He ages on crystal sizes, in case of reheated samples, is a clear indication of the higher He retentivity induced by α-recoil defects and that an explicit treatment of defect annealing is required for a correct interpretation of (U–Th)/He ages in such a case. More generally a correlation with the crystal size can bring information on the thermal path only if the age of defects, well represented by the fission-track age, is available, due to the dependence of the partial retention zone on damages. Conversely, in case of rapid cooling or for samples having low U and Th contents, damage effects can be ignored without significant effects on He ages.     

GETEMME—a mission to explore the Martian satellites and the fundamentals of solar system physics

GETEMME (Gravity, Einstein??s Theory, and Exploration of the Martian Moons?? Environment), a mission which is being proposed in ESA??s Cosmic Vision program, shall be launched for Mars on a Soyuz Fregat in 2020. The spacecraft will initially rendezvous with Phobos and Deimos in order to carry out a comprehensive mapping and characterization of the two satellites and to deploy passive Laser retro-reflectors on their surfaces. In the second stage of the mission, the spacecraft will be transferred into a lower 1500-km Mars orbit, to carry out routine Laser range measurements to the reflectors on Phobos and Deimos. Also, asynchronous two-way Laser ranging measurements between the spacecraft and stations of the ILRS (International Laser Ranging Service) on Earth are foreseen. An onboard accelerometer will ensure a high accuracy for the spacecraft orbit determination. The inversion of all range and accelerometer data will allow us to determine or improve dramatically on a host of dynamic parameters of the Martian satellite system. From the complex motion and rotation of Phobos and Deimos we will obtain clues on internal structures and the origins of the satellites. Also, crucial data on the time-varying gravity field of Mars related to climate variation and internal structure will be obtained. Ranging measurements will also be essential to improve on several parameters in fundamental physics, such as the Post-Newtonian parameter ?? as well as time-rate changes of the gravitational constant and the Lense-Thirring effect. Measurements by GETEMME will firmly embed Mars and its satellites into the Solar System reference frame.     

Mechanism of generation of the emission bands in the dynamic spectrum of the Crab pulsar

We show that the proportionately spaced emission bands in the dynamic spectrum of the Crab pulsar fit the oscillations of the square of a Bessel function whose argument exceeds its order. This function has already been encountered in the analysis of the emission from a polarization current with a superluminal distribution pattern: a current whose distribution pattern rotates (with an angular frequency ω) and oscillates (with a frequency  Ω > ω  differing from an integral multiple of ω) at the same time. Using the results of our earlier analysis, we find that the dependence on frequency of the spacing and width of the observed emission bands can be quantitatively accounted for by an appropriate choice of the value of the single free parameter  Ω/ω  . In addition, the value of this parameter, thus implied by Hankins & Eilek's data, places the last peak in the amplitude of the oscillating Bessel function in question at a frequency  (∼Ω³/ω²)  that agrees with the position of the observed ultraviolet peak in the spectrum of the Crab pulsar. We also show how the suppression of the emission bands by the interference of the contributions from differing polarizations can account for the differences in the time and frequency signatures of the interpulse and the main pulse in the Crab pulsar. Finally, we put the emission bands in the context of the observed continuum spectrum of the Crab pulsar by fitting this broad-band spectrum (over 16 orders of magnitude of frequency) with that generated by an electric current with a superluminally rotating distribution pattern.     

Molecular study of insoluble organic matter in Kainsaz CO3 carbonaceous chondrite: Comparison with CI and CM IOM

Abstract— Kainsaz CO3 insoluble organic matter (IOM) was studied using Curie point pyrolysis, electronic paramagnetic resonance (EPR), and high‐resolution transmission electron microscopy (HRTEM) to determine the effect of thermal metamorphism on molecular chondritic fingerprints. Pyrolysis released a very low amount of products that consist of one‐ and two‐ring aromatic units with methyl, dimethyl, and ethyl substituents. Moreover, Kainsaz IOM contains two orders of magnitude fewer radicals than Orgueil, Murchison, and Tagish Lake IOM. In addition, no diradicaloids were found in Kainsaz, although they are thought to constitute a specific signature for weakly organized extraterrestrial organic compounds in contrast to terrestrial ones. HRTEM reveals a very heterogeneous structure, with microporous disordered carbon, mesoporous graphitic carbons and graphite. Graphitization likely occurs and explains the differences between Kainsaz and CI or CM IOM. Heating stress experienced by Kainsaz IOM, on the parent body and/or prior its accretion, is likely responsible for the differences in molecular and structural organizations compared with those of CI and CM IOM.