Quaternary vegetation history of the Mississippi embayment

Nonconnah Creek, located in the loess-mantled Blufflands along the eastern wall of the Lower Mississippi Alluvial Valley in Tennessee displays a sedimentary sequence representing the Altonian Substage through the Woodfordian Substage of the Wisconsinan Stage. The site has a biostratigraphic record for the Altonian and Farmdalian Substages that documents warm-temperate upland oak-pine forest, prairie, and bottomland forest. At 23,000 yr B.P., white spruce and larch migrated into the Nonconnah Creek watershed and along braided-stream surfaces in the Mississippi Valley as far as southeastern Louisiana. The pollen and plant-macrofossil record from Nonconnah Creek provides the first documentation of a full-glacial locality in eastern North America for beech, yellow poplar, oak, history, black walnut, and other mesic deciduous forest taxa. During the full and late glacial, the Mississippi Valley was a barrier to the migration of pine species, while the adjacent Blufflands provided a refuge for mesic deciduous forest taxa. Regional climatic amelioration, beginning about 16,500 yr B.P., is reflected by increases in pollen percentages of cooltemperate deciduous trees at Nonconnah Creek. The demise of spruce and jack pine occurred 12,500 yr B.P. between 34° and 37° N in eastern North America in response to postglacial warming.     

RUSLE applied in a GIS framework: Calculating the LS factor and deriving homogeneous patches for estimating soil loss

The RUSLE (Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation) is integrated within a GIS framework to calculate soil loss spatially. For this module, algorithms and procedures were developed to derive the slope length factor (L) and steepness factor (S) from a DEM, then integrated with the R, K, C, and P factors to develop homogeneous patches (sub‐units) within each field or river basin. Soil loss is determined for each patch within a study unit, and then combined to determine the fields' or river basin's average annual and total soil loss. Two case studies are presented. The first case study, in central Massachusetts, compares estimated soil loss values obtained for individual fields using the Idrisi RUSLE module to USDA‐NRCS RUSLE field data. While soil loss results were similar, the RUSLE module allows fields to be partitioned into more similar units than practical in the field. This permits detailed spatial analysis of soil‐loss patterns. The second case study compares soil‐loss estimates for a catchment in southwestern Flanders, Belgium. This model–model comparison contrasts the results from the RUSLE module to the WATEM model—a grid cell based model based on the USLE/RUSLE but conceptualized in a multi‐flow context. Results between the predicted soil losses utilizing the two different approaches are significantly correlated. However, estimated soil losses are consistently higher for the WATEM model. This likely reflects the differences between how the two models compute L as well as the contribution of ephemeral gullies and flow convergence which are incorporated in WATEM but not in RUSLE.     

Projected 21st-century changes to Arctic marine access

Climate models project continued Arctic sea ice reductions with nearly ice-free summer conditions by the mid-21st century. However, how such reductions will realistically enable marine access is not well understood, especially considering a range of climatic scenarios and ship types. We present 21st century projections of technical shipping accessibility for circumpolar and national scales, the international high seas, and three potential navigation routes. Projections of marine access are based on monthly and daily CCSM4 sea ice concentration and thickness simulations for 2011–2030, 2046–2065, and 2080–2099 under 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 W/m² radiative forcing scenarios. Results suggest substantial areas of the Arctic will become newly accessible to Polar Class 3, Polar Class 6, and open-water vessels, rising from ~54 %, 36 %, and 23 %, respectively of the circumpolar International Maritime Organization Guidelines Boundary area in the late 20th century to ~95 %, 78 %, and 49 %, respectively by the late 21st century. Of the five Arctic Ocean coastal states, Russia experiences the greatest percentage access increases to its exclusive economic zone, followed by Greenland/Denmark, Norway, Canada and the U.S. Along the Northern Sea Route, July-October navigation season length averages ~120, 113, and 103 days for PC3, PC6, and OW vessels, respectively by late-century, with shorter seasons but substantial increases along the Northwest Passage and Trans-Polar Route. While Arctic navigation depends on other factors besides sea ice including economics, infrastructure, bathymetry, and weather, these projections are useful for strategic planning by governments, regulatory agencies, and the global maritime industry to assess spatial and temporal ranges of potential Arctic marine operations in the coming decades.     

The precession phase of hydrological variability in the Western Pacific Warm Pool during the past 400 ka

The low-latitude hydrological cycle is a key climate parameter on different timescales, as it contributes to various feedback processes. Modelling studies suggest that the interhemispheric insolation contrast is the major factor controlling the cycle, although the influence of glacial conditions and the phase relationships relative to insolation forcing remain undetermined. In this work, we studied precipitation variability over Papua New Guinea (PNG, 3°S) for the past 400 ka using terrigenous fractions transported by the Sepik River to the Western Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP). A multi-decadal to centennial resolution of the elemental content was obtained using X-ray fluorescence scanning of a marine sediment core using an age model based on ¹⁴C dates and benthic foraminiferal δ¹⁸O. Indicators of the coarse river particulate fraction (bulk and CaCO₃-free basis Ti concentrations, the log intensity ratios of Ti/K and Ti/Ca) displayed a dominant 23 ka periodicity without a clear glacial–interglacial trend. Our precipitation records showed a tight relationship with local summer insolation (3°S, January) with time-dependent lag of 0 to 4 ka. They were generally in anti-phase for U–Th dated Chinese speleothem δ¹⁸O records. Based on an analogy to modern climate, we propose that precipitation over PNG was primarily determined by interhemispheric insolation contrast, and the contribution of austral fall/winter precipitation added second-order variability that formed the lags. For the last four climate cycles, the WPWP hydrological cycle was closely associated with the eastern Asian monsoon, and the influence of glacial conditions on the low-latitude hydrological cycle was estimated to be limited.     

Trends in heat-related mortality in the United States, 1975–2004

This study addresses the long-term trends in heat-related mortality across 29 US metropolitan areas from 1975 to 2004 to discern the spatial patterns and temporal trends in heat vulnerability. Mortality data have been standardized to account for population trends, and seasonal and interannual variability. On days when a city experienced an “oppressive” air mass, mean anomalous mortality was calculated, along with the likelihood that oppressive days led to a mortality response at least one standard deviation above the baseline value. Results show a general decline in heat-related mortality from the 1970s to 1990s, after which the decline seems to have abated. The likelihood of oppressive days leading to significant increases in mortality has shown less of a decline. The number of oppressive days has stayed the same or increased at most metropolitan areas. With US homes near saturation in terms of air-conditioning availability, an aging population is still significantly vulnerable to heat events.     

Detection of manure-derived organic compounds in rivers draining agricultural areas of intensive manure spreading

It is essential to have suitable tools able to trace the fate of manure organic matter in the environment to assess whether manure disposal on the soils of catchments could affect the organic quality of rivers. Sterol compounds – mainly expressed as C_29 + 28/C₂₇ and 5β/C₂₇ ratios – have been shown to be specific molecular tracers of pig, dairy and poultry manures in soils. The objective of this study was to measure C_29 + 28/C₂₇ and 5β/C₂₇ ratios in five Brittany rivers (Elorn, Yar, Léguer, Min Ran and Couesnon) draining agricultural catchments receiving massive annual inputs of pig, poultry and dairy manures and compare these ratios with ratios published for enriched soils and manure samples. The particulate organic fractions from the studied rivers yielded steroid signatures typical of animal manures. More specifically, a stanol compound diagnostic of pig slurry – the 5β-stanol known as coprostanol – was found to be very widespread, with particularly high concentrations in one of the rivers (Elorn). The C_29 + 28/C₂₇ and 5β/C₂₇ ratios of the particulate fractions of the rivers were compared with ratios measured directly in pig, dairy and poultry manure samples, as well as with the breeding activities on river catchments. These comparisons show that the steroid profiles of the five investigated rivers correlate closely with the types of manure (i.e. pig, poultry or dairy) spread on soils in their catchments. For instance, the C_29 + 28/C₂₇ and 5β/C₂₇ ratios in the Elorn river are similar to the values typical of pig slurry (e.g. 5β/C₂₇ > 4); compared with other catchments, the soils in this area receive by far the largest amount of pig slurry. By contrast, the Yar river drains a catchment receiving only poultry and dairy manures, and its soils exhibit C_29 + 28/C₂₇ and 5β/C₂₇ ratios similar to those of dairy and poultry manures (e.g. 5β/C₂₇ ∼ 1). Thus, this study indicates that the organic quality of rivers is modified in catchments where there is intense manure spreading on soils. It also provides evidence that rivers draining areas receiving different manure types may exhibit differences in the long-term evolution of their OM content. Indeed, two of the investigated river catchments receive dominantly dairy and poultry manure, and exhibit clear long-term upward trends in OM. On the other hand, one catchment receiving high proportions of pig slurry clearly shows a long-term downward trend in OM contents. A survey of the literature shows that the relative amount of OM and N received by soils in agricultural catchments could be the key parameter in determining the direction of the long-term OM trend of the river, rather than the absolute amount and/or type of manure that is applied to the soil. In any case, the present study suggests that sterol/stanol compounds may be of diagnostic value in determining whether a stream or a river is undergoing contamination by manure-derived organic matter.