The need for national deep decarbonization pathways for effective climate policy

Constraining global average temperatures to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels will probably require global energy system emissions to be halved by 2050 and complete decarbonization by 2100. In the nationally orientated climate policy framework codified under the Paris Agreement, each nation must decide the scale and method of their emissions reduction contribution while remaining consistent with the global carbon budget. This policy process will require engagement amongst a wide range of stakeholders who have very different visions for the physical implementation of deep decarbonization. The Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP) has developed a methodology, building on the energy, climate and economics literature, to structure these debates based on the following principles: country-scale analysis to capture specific physical, economic and political circumstances to maximize policy relevance, a long-term perspective to harmonize short-term decisions with the long-term objective and detailed sectoral analysis with transparent representation of emissions drivers through a common accounting framework or ‘dashboard’. These principles are operationalized in the creation of deep decarbonization pathways (DDPs), which involve technically detailed, sector-by-sector maps of each country’s decarbonization transition, backcasting feasible pathways from 2050 end points. This article shows how the sixteen DDPP country teams, covering 74% of global energy system emissions, used this method to collectively restrain emissions to a level consistent with the 2 °C target while maintaining development aspirations and reflecting national circumstances, mainly through efficiency, decarbonization of energy carriers (e.g. electricity, hydrogen, biofuels and synthetic gas) and switching to these carriers. The cross-cutting analysis of country scenarios reveals important enabling conditions for the transformation, pertaining to technology research and development, investment, trade and global and national policies.

Policy relevance

In the nation-focused global climate policy framework codified in the Paris Agreement, the purpose of the DDPP and DDPs is to provide a common method by which global and national governments, business, civil society and researchers in each country can communicate, compare and debate differing concrete visions for deep decarbonization in order to underpin the necessary societal and political consensus to design and implement short-term policy packages that are consistent with long-term global decarbonization.     

Sexual reproduction and early life‐history traits of the Mediterranean soft coral Alcyonium acaule

Understanding processes that contribute to a better comprehension of the population dynamics of long‐lived species is critical for the maintenance and potential recovery of such species. Despite the abundance of soft corals in Mediterranean rocky reefs, little information exists on their life histories and reproductive patterns. In this study, we assessed the main reproductive characteristics and early life‐history traits of the long‐lived soft coral Alcyonium acaule. The sex ratio was 1:1; the smallest fertile colonies were one finger in size (2.1 ± 0.6 cm in height), and both colony and polyp fertility increased with colony size. Likewise, the number of eggs and spermary sacs per polyp increased significantly with colony size, whereas the diameter of the female and male sexual products did not. Over 6 years of observations (2007–2012), spawning occurred primarily in July, after the seawater reached 20 °C, in a single spawning episode per year. Approximately 80% of female colonies released eggs, which were retained on the surface of the mother colony by mucous strings for up to a few days. High fertilization rates were observed during spawning in 2008 and 2009 (94.9% and 87.0%, respectively). The timing of development was ~24 h for the blastulae, ~48–72 h for the planulae and 8–22 days for metamorphosis into primary polyps. Survivorship of planulae was relatively high (~50% at 45 days after release), but only 24% of larvae metamorphosed into primary polyps, and their survivorship was moderate after 2 months (65% in 2008 and 74% in 2009). Asexual reproduction was negligible, indicating that sexual reproduction is the main mechanism supporting the maintenance and recovery of populations.     

Observer presence may alter the behaviour of reef fishes associated with coral colonies

Although underwater visual census (UVC) is the most frequently used technique for quantifying reef fish assemblages, remote video analysis has been gaining attention as a potential alternative. In the South Atlantic Ocean, Millepora spp. (class Hydrozoa) are the only branching coral species; however, little is known about the ecological role that they play for reef fish communities. We compared these two observation methods (remote video and UVC) to estimate reef fish abundance and species richness associated with colonies of the fire‐coral Millepora alcicornis at Tamandaré Reefs, Northeast Brazil. Additionally, the two different techniques were used to compare species behaviour in association with fire‐corals in order to examine the biases associated with each technique and provide useful information for behavioural ecologists studying fish–coral associations. There were no differences in reef fish abundance or species richness sampled by remote video or UVC. However, a significant difference in the behaviour of associated fish was recorded between the two methods. In the presence of a diver carrying out a UVC, fish were observed spending more time sheltered amongst the coral branches compared with passively swimming on coral colonies with the remote video technique. Specifically, on the remote video recordings agonistic interactions between fish and passive swimming accounted for 33.3% and 22.2% of the census time, respectively. By comparison, when observed by a diver fish spent 34.8% of their time sheltering amongst the coral branches. We demonstrate that both techniques are similarly effective for recording fish abundance and species richness associated with fire‐corals. However, differences were observed in the ability of each method to detect the behaviour of coral‐associated fishes. Our findings show that behavioural ecologists studying complex fish–coral associations need to ensure that their aims are clearly defined and that they choose the most appropriate technique for their study in order to minimize methodological biases.     

Influence of Mussel Culture on the Vertical Export of Phytoplankton Carbon in a Coastal Upwelling Embayment (Ría de Vigo,NW Iberia)

The goal of this paper is to find out whether suspended mussel culture affects the vertical fluxes of biogenic particles in the Ría de Vigo on a seasonal scale. With this aim, vertical fluxes of particulate organic carbon (POC) and the magnitude and composition of vertical export of phytoplankton carbon (Cphyto) collected in sediment traps were examined by comparing data obtained inside a mussel farming area (RaS) with those found at a reference station (ReS) not affected by mussels. Our results indicate that mussel farming has a strong impact on sedimentation fluxes under the rafts, not only increasing POC flux but also altering the magnitude and composition of Cphyto fluxes. Average POC flux at RaS (2564?±?1936 mg m^?2 day^?1) was four times higher than at ReS (731?±?276 mg m^?2 day^?1), and much of this increase was due to biodeposit fluxes (Cbiodep) which accounted for large proportion of POC flux (35–60 %). Indeed, because of this high Cbiodep flux, only a small proportion of the POC flux was due to Cphyto flux (3–12 %). At the same time, we observed an increased sedimentation of phytoplankton cells at RaS that could be explained by a combination of mechanisms: less energetic hydrodynamic conditions under mussel rafts, ballast effect by sinking mussel feces, and diatom aggregates. Moreover, mussel farming also altered the quality of the Cphyto flux by removing part of the predatory pressure of zooplankton and thus matching diatom composition in water column and sediment traps.     

Tectonic Subsidence of California Estuaries Increases Forecasts of Relative Sea-Level Rise

Even along the generally uplifting coast of the Pacific US, local geologic structures can cause subsidence. In this study, we quantify Holocene-averaged subsidence rates in four estuaries (Carpinteria Slough, Goleta Slough, Campus Lagoon, and Morro Bay) along the southern and central California coast by comparing radiocarbon-dated estuarine material to a regional sea-level curve. Holocene-averaged rates of vertical motion range from subsidence of 1.4?±?2.4, 1.2±0.4, and 0.4?±?0.3 mm/year in Morro Bay, Carpinteria Slough, and Goleta Slough, respectively, to possible uplift in Campus Lagoon (?0.1?±?0.9 mm/year). The calculated rates of subsidence are of the same magnitude as rates of relative sea-level rise experienced over the late Holocene and effectively double the ongoing rates of relative sea-level rise experienced over the last five decades on other parts of the coast. The difference in rates of vertical motion among these four estuaries is attributed to their geological settings. Estuaries developed in subsiding geological structures such as synclines and fault-bounded basins are subsiding at much higher rates than those developed within flooded river valleys incised into marine terraces. Restoration projects accounting for future sea-level rise must consider the geologic setting of the estuaries and, if applicable, include subsidence in future sea-level rise scenarios, even along the tectonically uplifting US Pacific Coast.     

Cloud Forest Conservation in the Central Highlands of Guatemala Hinges on Soil Conservation and Intensifying Food Production

Soil erosion threatens long-term soil fertility and food production in Q’eqchi’ communities native to the Sierra Yalijux and Sierra Sacranix mountain ranges in the central highlands of Guatemala. Environmental factors such as steep topography, erodible soils, and intense precipitation events, combined with land subdivision and reduced fallow periods as a consequence of population growth, contribute to severe erosion and strain soil resources. The preservation of the region's cloud forests hinges on enhancing production of staple crops through agricultural intensification while maintaining soil fertility through implementation of soil conservation measures.