Influence of pit removal methods on river network position

Digital elevation models often contain depressions that result in areas described as having no drainage, referred to as sinks or pits. These depressions disrupt the drainage surface, which disrupt routing of flow over the surface. Most of the attributes that can be extracted from a digital elevation model rely on flow‐routing algorithms to calculate the upslope contributing area. There is little information on the influence of the various algorithms on the position and on the connectivity of the extracted networks. The aim of this study was to assess the effects of pit removal methods, data sources and flow‐routing algorithms on the position of river networks. The results show that all factors and methods have an impact on the position of the extracted networks. The pit removal method combining filling and carving extracted river networks closer to the reference, as well the elevation models with higher resolution. Single‐flow direction methods provided more accurate positioning of river network, in this test area where the drainage is generally well defined. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Potential responses of oligochaetes (Annelida, Clitellata) to global changes: Experimental fertilization in a lowland stream of Argentina (South America)

One of the possible consequences of climatic change for streams and rivers in the pampean region of South America is an increment in nutrient loads. To analyze this possible perturbation on a biological scale, the response of oligochaetes to an experimental eutrophication of the La Choza Stream, Argentina was studied. We proposed that the addition of nutrients could increase the abundance, biomass, and species composition of the stream. Two stretches (Control and Treatment sites) were selected, with bimonthly samples being taken (March 2007 through February 2009) in two habitat types: the sediments and the aquatic vegetation. On each sampling occasion the environmental variables were measured. The nutrient addition consisted in the continuous dissolution of a commercial fertilizer. The oligochaete mean density and total biomass, the taxonomic richness, the Shannon diversity (H′), and the evenness (E) were calculated and the BACI ANOVA design used to compare the differences between the sites. Thirty-three species of the families Naididae (Naidinae, Pristininae, Tubificinae, and Rhyacodrilinae), Opistocystidae, Enchytraeidae plus Aphanoneura Aeolosomatidae were collected. The oligochaete abundance and biomass increased significantly in the sediments and on the aquatic vegetation, especially among the Naidinae and Pristininae during their asexual reproductive phase. The diversity and evenness varied significantly in the sediments with the nutrient addition. Significant differences in the species richness and diversity were found on the aquatic vegetation, with both increasing at the treatment site after the fertilization. A significant correlation (Spearman) was observed between the oligochaete density in the sediments and the NO₃-N and NH₄-N concentration in the water. The increment in the naidines resistant to the fertilizer throughout the experiment could be explained by the greater nutrient availability, their mode of reproduction, and their short life cycles. The results of our study suggested that the incorporation of nutrients modified the composition of the oligochaete assemblage in favor of herbivores and detrivores. The usefulness of these indicator organisms in monitoring freshwater systems is subsequently discussed.     

BET_VH: a probabilistic tool for long-term volcanic hazard assessment

In this paper, we illustrate a Bayesian Event Tree to estimate Volcanic Hazard (BET_VH). The procedure enables us to calculate the probability of any kind of long-term hazardous event for which we are interested, accounting for the intrinsic stochastic nature of volcanic eruptions and our limited knowledge regarding related processes. For the input, the code incorporates results from numerical models simulating the impact of hazardous volcanic phenomena on an area and data from the eruptive history. For the output, the code provides a wide and exhaustive set of spatiotemporal probabilities of different events; these probabilities are estimated by means of a Bayesian approach that allows all uncertainties to be properly accounted for. The code is able to deal with many eruptive settings simultaneously, weighting each with its own probability of occurrence. In a companion paper, we give a detailed example of application of this tool to the Campi Flegrei caldera, in order to estimate the hazard from tephra fall.     

Towards real-time eruption forecasting in the Auckland Volcanic Field: application of BET_EF during the New Zealand National Disaster Exercise ‘Ruaumoko’

The Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF) is a young basaltic field that lies beneath the urban area of Auckland, New Zealand’s largest city. Over the past 250,000 years the AVF has produced at least 49 basaltic centers; the last eruption was only 600 years ago. In recognition of the high risk associated with a possible future eruption in Auckland, the New Zealand government ran Exercise Ruaumoko in March 2008, a test of New Zealand’s nation-wide preparedness for responding to a major disaster resulting from a volcanic eruption in Auckland City. The exercise scenario was developed in secret, and covered the period of precursory activity up until the eruption. During Exercise Ruaumoko we adapted a recently developed statistical code for eruption forecasting, namely BET_EF (Bayesian Event Tree for Eruption Forecasting), to independently track the unrest evolution and to forecast the most likely onset time, location and style of the initial phase of the simulated eruption. The code was set up before the start of the exercise by entering reliable information on the past history of the AVF as well as the monitoring signals expected in the event of magmatic unrest and an impending eruption. The average probabilities calculated by BET_EF during Exercise Ruaumoko corresponded well to the probabilities subjectively (and independently) estimated by the advising scientists (differences of few percentage units), and provided a sound forecast of the timing (before the event, the eruption probability reached 90%) and location of the eruption. This application of BET_EF to a volcanic field that has experienced no historical activity and for which otherwise limited prior information is available shows its versatility and potential usefulness as a tool to aid decision-making for a wide range of volcano types. Our near real-time application of BET_EF during Exercise Ruaumoko highlighted its potential to clarify and possibly optimize decision-making procedures in a future AVF eruption crisis, and as a rational starting point for discussions in a scientific advisory group. It also stimulated valuable scientific discussion around how a future AVF eruption might progress, and highlighted areas of future volcanological research that would reduce epistemic uncertainties through the development of better input models.     

40Ar–39Ar dating of volcanogenic products from the AND-2A core (ANDRILL Southern McMurdo Sound Project, Antarctica): correlations with the Erebus Volcanic Province and implications for the age model of the core

The AND-2A drillcore (Antarctic Drilling Program—ANDRILL) was successfully completed in late 2007 on the Antarctic continental margin (Southern McMurdo Sound, Ross Sea) with the aim of tracking ice proximal to shallow marine environmental fluctuations and to document the 20-Ma evolution of the Erebus Volcanic Province. Lava clasts and tephra layers from the AND-2A drillcore were investigated from a petrographic and stratigraphic point of view and analyzed by the ⁴⁰Ar–³⁹Ar laser technique in order to constrain the age model of the core and to gain information on the style and nature of sediment deposition in the Victoria Land Basin since Early Miocene. Ten out of 17 samples yielded statistically robust ⁴⁰Ar–³⁹Ar ages, indicating that the AND-2A drillcore recovered ≤230 m of Middle Miocene (∼128–358 m below sea floor, ∼11.5–16.0 Ma) and >780 m of Early Miocene (∼358–1093 m below sea floor, ∼16.0–20.1 Ma). Results also highlight a nearly continuous stratigraphic record from at least 358 m below sea floor down hole, characterized by a mean sedimentation rate of ∼19 cm/ka, possible oscillations of no more than a few hundreds of ka and a break within ∼17.5–18.1 Ma. Comparison with available data from volcanic deposits on land, suggests that volcanic rocks within the AND-2A core were supplied from the south, possibly with source areas closer to the drill site for the upper core levels, and from 358 m below sea floor down hole, with the “proto-Mount Morning” as the main source.     

Life history and temporal distribution of Orchestia sp. cf. cavimana (Amphipoda, Talitridae) on a lake shore in central Italy

The life history of the amphipod Orchestia sp. cf. cavimana (Heller, 1865) was studied throughout the course of a year with monthly samplings and the use of pitfall traps along the shores of Lake Albano in central Italy. The data thus obtained showed two peaks in abundance (the first in June and the second in October) and a minimum capture frequency in February. Egg-bearing females were recorded in spring and late summer, whilst recruitment occurred from spring to autumn, with maximum in June and October. The data collected also indicated the presence of a positive correlation between the abundance of talitrids and both temperature and sediment moisture. Morphological analysis enabled the identification of four different cohorts (with a lifespan of the species of approximately 12–15 months) all four of which remained distinguishable throughout the course of the year. It, moreover, enabled sex determination in individuals of 5 or more millimetres. The subsequent distribution indicated that, when significant, the sex ratio was female biased and that maximum size was greater in males. In particular, maximum sizes were recorded in spring for both males and females and were of 17.5 and 13.0 mm, respectively. Furthermore, the total body length recorded for egg-bearing females was positively correlated with the number of eggs in their brood pouch.     

A novel approach to infer streamflow signals for ungauged basins

In this paper, we present a novel paradigm for inference of streamflow for ungauged basins. Our innovative procedure fuses concepts from both kernel methods and data assimilation. Based on the modularity and flexibility of kernel techniques and the strengths of the variational Bayesian Kalman filter and smoother, we can infer streamflow for ungauged basins whose hydrological and system properties and/or behavior are non-linear and non-Gaussian. We apply the proposed approach to two watersheds, one in California and one in West Virginia. The inferred streamflow signals for the two watersheds appear promising. These preliminary and encouraging validations demonstrate that our new paradigm is capable of providing accurate conditional estimates of streamflow for ungauged basins with unknown and non-linear dynamics.     

Calibration of rainfall-runoff models in ungauged basins: A regional maximum likelihood approach

Parameter estimation for rainfall-runoff models in ungauged basins is a challenging task that is receiving significant attention by the scientific community. In fact, many practical applications suffer from problems induced by data scarcity, given that hydrological observations are often sparse or unavailable. This study focuses on regional calibration for a generic rainfall-runoff model. The maximum likelihood function in the spectral domain proposed by Whittle [40] is approximated in the time domain by maximising the fit of selected statistics of the river flow process, with the aim to propose a calibration procedure that can be applied at regional scale. Accordingly, the statistics above are related to the dominant climate and catchment characteristics, through regional regression relationships. The proposed technique is applied to the case study of 4 catchments located in central Italy, which are treated as ungauged and are located in a region where detailed hydrological, as well as geomorphologic and climatic information, is available. The results obtained with the regional calibration are compared with those provided by a classical least squares calibration in the time domain. The outcomes of the analysis confirm the potential of the proposed methodology and show that regional information can be very effective for setting up hydrological models.     

Historical genetics on a sediment core from a Kenyan lake: intraspecific genotype turnover in a tropical rotifer is related to past environmental changes

Using molecular genetic methods and an ancient DNA approach, we studied population and species succession of rotifers of the genus Brachionus in the Kenyan alkaline-saline crater lake Sonachi since the beginning of the 19th century as well as distribution of Brachionus haplotypes in recent and historic sediments of other lakes of the East African Rift System. The sediment core record of Lake Sonachi displays haplotypes of a distinct evolutionary lineage in all increments. Populations were dominated by a single mitochondrial haplotype for a period of 150 years, and two putatively intraspecific turnovers in dominance occurred. Both changes are concordant with major environmental perturbations documented by a profound visible change in sediment composition of the core. The first change was very abrupt and occurred after the deposition of volcanic ash at the beginning of the 19th century. The second change coincides with a major lake level lowstand during the 1940s. It was preceded by a period of successively declining lake level, in which two other haplotypes appeared in the lake. One of these putatively belongs to another species documented in historical and recent Kenyan lake sediments. The analysis of plankton population dynamics through historical time can reveal patterns of population persistence and turnover in relation to environmental changes.     

Late Holocene climate and environment of the SE Pampa grasslands,Argentina, inferred from biological indicators in shallow,freshwater Lake Nahuel Rucá

We analyzed pollen, non-pollen palynomorphs (NPPs), calcareous microfossils, plant macrofossils, diatoms, chrysophyte cysts, opal phytoliths and organic matter content in a 123-cm sediment sequence from Nahuel Rucá Lake, a shallow, freshwater system in the southeastern Pampa grasslands, Argentina. Three stages in the lake evolution were identified. Before 3,680 cal year BP, only pollen, NPPs (dinoflagellate cysts and acritarchs) and ostracods were recovered, suggesting brackish/saline conditions in the lake and nearby areas. Freshwater conditions are, however, indicated by Myriophyllum, Pediastrum and Zygnemataceae. The brackish/saline conditions could have been caused by marine influence during a Holocene sea level high stand that affected the area ca. 6,000 year BP. Between 3,680 and 390 cal year BP, macrophyte pollen and plant macrofossils indicate increasingly freshwater conditions in the lake and the adjacent area. Diatom and ostracod assemblages, however, suggest brackish and oligotrophic conditions, giving way to freshwater and meso-eutrophic conditions toward the end of this period. The relationship between submersed macrophytes (Myriophyllum, Potamogeton, Ceratophyllum, Chara) and planktonic algae (Chlorophyta and diatoms), suggests a shift in the lake from a clear to a turbid state. This turbid state is more evident after 390 cal year BP. High values of Pediastrum, Scenedesmus and diatoms (Cyclotella meneghiniana, Aulacoseira granulata, A. muzzanensis) observed during this stage could have reduced light penetration, with consequent loss of submersed plants. Pollen and plant macrofossils in the uppermost 20 cm indicate a shallow, freshwater lake similar to present, though an increase in brackish/freshwater diatoms suggests an increase in salinity, perhaps related to periodic droughts. Opal phytoliths yield a regional paleoclimatic reconstruction that agrees closely with inferences made using pollen, mammals and sediment characteristics.