Laboratory-scale study of field of view and the seismic interpretation of fracture specific stiffness

The effects of the scale of measurement, i.e., the field of view, on the interpretation of fracture properties from seismic wave propagation was investigated using an acoustic lens system to produce a pseudo-collimated wavefront. The incident wavefront had a controllable beam diameter that set the field of view at 15 mm, 30 mm and 60 mm. On a smaller scale, traditional acoustic scans were used to probe the fracture in 2 mm increments. This laboratory approach was applied to two limestone samples, each containing a single induced fracture and compared to an acrylic control sample. From the analysis of the average coherent sum of the signals measured on each scale, we observed that the scale of the field of view affected the interpretation of the fracture specific stiffness. Many small-scale measurements of the seismic response of a fracture, when summed, did not predict the large-scale response of the fracture. The change from a frequency-independent to frequency-dependent fracture stiffness occurs when the scale of the field of view exceeds the spatial correlation length associated with fracture geometry. A frequency-independent fracture specific stiffness is not sufficient to classify a fracture as homogeneous. A nonuniform spatial distribution of fracture specific stiffness and overlapping geometric scales in a fracture cause a scale-dependent seismic response, which requires measurements at different field of views to fully characterize the fracture.     

Bayesian event tree for eruption forecasting (BET_EF) at Vesuvius,Italy: a retrospective forward application to the 1631 eruption

Reliable forecasting of the next eruption at Vesuvius is the main scientific factor in defining effective strategies to reduce volcanic risk in one of the most dangerous volcanic areas of the world. In this paper, we apply a recently developed probabilistic code for eruption forecasting to new and independent historical data related to the pre-eruptive phase of the 1631 eruption. The results obtained point out three main issues: (1) the importance of “cold” historical data (according to Guidoboni 2008) related to pre-eruptive phases for evaluating forecasting tools and possibly refining them; (2) the BET_EF code implemented for Vesuvius would have forecasted the 1631 eruption satisfactorily, marking different stages of the pre-eruptive phase; (3) the code shows that pre-eruptive signals that significantly increase the probability of eruption were likely detected more than 2 months before the event.     

Composition and distribution of seabed and suspended sediments in north and central Torres Strait,Australia

Widespread seagrass dieback in central Torres Strait, Australia has been anecdotally linked to the delivery of vast quantities of terrigenous sediments from New Guinea. The composition and distribution, and sedimentological and geochemical properties, of seabed and suspended sediments in north and central Torres Strait have been determined to investigate this issue. In northern Torres Strait, next to Saibai Island, seabed sediments comprise poorly sorted, muddy, mixed calcareous–siliciclastic sand. Seabed sediments in this region are dominated by aluminosilicate (terrigenous) phases. In central Torres Strait, next to Turnagain Island, seabed and suspended sediments comprise moderately sorted coarse to medium carbonate sand. Seabed sediments in this region are dominated by carbonate and magnesium (marine) phases. Mean Cu/Al ratios for seabed sediments next to Saibai Island are 0.01, and are similar to those found in New Guinea south coastal sediments by previous workers. Mean Cu/Al ratios for seabed sediments next to Turnagain Island are 0.02, indicating an enrichment of Cu in central Torres Strait. This enrichment comes from an exogenous biogenic source, principally from foraminifers and molluscs. We could not uniquely trace terrigenous sediments from New Guinea to Turnagain Island in central Torres Strait. If sediments are a factor in the widespread seagrass dieback in central Torres Strait, then our data suggest these are marine-derived sediments sourced from resuspension and advection from the immediate shelf areas and not terrigenous sediments dispersed from New Guinea rivers. This finding is consistent with outputs from recently developed regional hydrodynamic and sediment transport models.     

Tracing ground water input to base flow using sulfate (S, O) isotopes

Sulfate (S and O) isotopes used in conjunction with sulfate concentration provide a tracer for ground water contributions to base flow. They are particularly useful in areas where rock sources of contrasting S isotope character are juxtaposed, where water chemistry or H and O isotopes fail to distinguish water sources, and in arid areas where rain water contributions to base flow are minimal. Sonoita Creek basin in southern Arizona, where evaporite and igneous sources of sulfur are commonly juxtaposed, serves as an example. Base flow in Sonoita Creek is a mixture of three ground water sources: A, basin ground water with sulfate resembling that from Permian evaporite; B, ground water from the Patagonia Mountains; and C, ground water associated with Temporal Gulch. B and C contain sulfate like that of acid rock drainage in the region but differ in sulfate content. Source A contributes 50% to 70%, with the remainder equally divided between B and C during the base flow seasons. The proportion of B generally increases downstream. The proportion of A is greatest under drought conditions.     

Linking hydrology and stream geochemistry in urban fringe watersheds

Urbanization represents a dramatic example of human interference with the hydrological cycle. Changes to ground cover affect both the hydrological and geochemical characteristics in a watershed. Ecosystem degradation also occurs in undisturbed watersheds at the “urban fringe” due to regional atmospheric deposition. These urban fringe catchments can also serve as an upstream source of various chemical constituents into downstream (urban) river systems. The current study focuses on the impacts of regional urbanization in the upper Arroyo Seco watershed located on the eastern edge of the Los Angeles basin, where estimates of dry deposition are considered some of the highest in North America. Collected hydrologic, geochemical and atmospheric data were assessed at seasonal time scales to evaluate current hydrochemical dynamics. Stream water chemical composition in the upper Arroyo Seco watershed exhibits significant seasonal variability, particularly for . Almost all study solutes show dilution behavior. However, hydrologically enhanced behavior was observed for with increased concentrations during the wet season. Seasonal stream concentration–discharge relationships were developed using a hyperbolic dilution model. The developed model was then used to predict concentrations for observational gaps in stream water chemical composition, allowing for seasonal and annual mass loadings to be estimated for the downstream urban stream. The hydrological signal in the resultant chemical loads is extremely strong, especially during the wet season. Both observations and model predictions indicate the watershed is a sink for atmospheric nitrate and a source for various cations.     

Impact of fish farming on the distribution of phosphorus in sediments in the middle Adriatic area

During the last decade, intensive fish farming developed along the central Croatian coast, creating a need to study and evaluate its potential influence on unaffected sites. We considered phosphorus as an indicator of the influence of fish farming and investigated the distribution of phosphorus forms in sediment from several fish farms and marine areas of different trophic status in the middle Adriatic. Analyses of samples were performed with modified SEDEX techniques. Our results indicated that authigenic apatite phosphorus showed no significant differences among the investigated stations, while organic phosphorus concentrations reflected the trophic status of the station area. Below-cage sediment was characterized by enhanced fish debris phosphorus and low detrital apatite phosphorus concentrations, while sediment from an anthropogenically influenced bay showed the highest values of iron bound phosphorus species. Among the different P fractions, fish debris phosphorus proved to be the most sensitive indicator of the influence of fish farming on marine sediment.     

Introduction to “Tsunami Science Four Years After the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami, Part I: Modelling and Hazard Assessment”

In this introduction we briefly summarize the 14 contributions to Part I of this special issue on Tsunami Science Four Years after the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami. These papers are representative of the new tsunami science being conducted since the occurrence of that tragic event. Most of these were presented at the session: Tsunami Generation and Hazard, of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics XXIV General Assembly held at Perugia, Italy, in July of 2007. That session included over one hundred presentations on a wide range of topics in tsunami research. The papers grouped into Part I, and introduced here, cover topics directly related to tsunami mitigation such as numerical modelling, hazard assessment and databases. Part II of this special issue, Observations and Data Analysis, will be published in a subsequent volume of Pure and Applied Geophysics.     

Investigating crater lake warming using ASTER thermal imagery: Case studies at Ruapehu,Poás,Kawah Ijen,and Copahué Volcanoes

A two-channel or split-window algorithm designed to correct for atmospheric conditions was applied to thermal images taken by the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) of Lake Yugama on Kusatsu–Shirane volcano in Japan in order to measure the temperature of its crater lake. These temperature calculations were validated using lake water temperatures that were collected on the ground. Overall, the agreement between the temperatures calculated using the split-window method and ground truth is quite good, typically ± 1.5 °C for cloud-free images. Data from fieldwork undertaken in the summer of 2004 at Kusatsu–Shirane allow a comparison of ground-truth data with the radiant temperatures measured using ASTER imagery. Further images were analyzed of Ruapehu, Poás, Kawah Ijen, and Copahué volcanoes to acquire time-series of lake temperatures. A total of 64 images of these 4 volcanoes covering a wide range of geographical locations and climates were analyzed. Results of the split-window algorithm applied to ASTER images are reliable for monitoring thermal changes in active volcanic lakes. These temperature data, when considered in conjunction with traditional volcano monitoring techniques, lead to a better understanding of whether and how thermal changes in crater lakes aid in eruption forecasting.     

Explosive felsic volcanism on El Hierro (Canary Islands)

The Canary Islands consist of seven basaltic shield volcanoes whose submerged portion is much more voluminous than the subaerial part of each island. Like so many other volcanic oceanic islands, the indicative deposits of explosive felsic volcanism are not a common feature on the Canary archipelago. Hitherto, they have only been documented from the central islands of Gran Canaria and Tenerife, which are the largest volcanic complexes of the islands. On the other Canary Islands, the presence of felsic rocks is mostly restricted to intrusions and a few lava flows, generally within the succession in the oldest parts of individual islands. In this paper, we present a detailed stratigraphic, lithological and sedimentological study of a significant felsic pumice deposit on the island of El Hierro, referred here as the Malpaso Member, which represents the only explosive episode of felsic volcanism found on the Canary Islands (outside of Gran Canaria and Tenerife). The products of the eruption indicate a single eruptive event and cover an area of about 15 km². This work provides a detailed stratigraphic and chronological framework for El Hierro, and four subunits are identified within the member on the basis of lithological and granulometric characteristics. The results of this study demonstrate the importance of an explosive eruption in a setting where the activity is typified by effusive basaltic events. Given the style and the spatial distribution of the Malpaso eruption and its products, a future event with similar characteristics could have a serious impact on the population, infrastructure and economy of the island of El Hierro.     

A spatio-temporal Poisson hurdle point process to model wildfires

Wildfires have been studied in many ways, for instance as a spatial point pattern or through modeling the size of fires or the relative risk of big fires. Lately a large variety of complex statistical models can be fitted routinely to complex data sets, in particular wildfires, as a result of widely accessible high-level statistical software, such as R. The objective in this paper is to model the occurrence of big wildfires (greater than a given extension of hectares) using an adapted two-part econometric model, specifically a hurdle model. The methodology used in this paper is useful to determine those factors that help any fire to become a big wildfire. Our proposal and methodology can be routinely used to contribute to the management of big wildfires.