Towards real-time eruption forecasting in the Auckland Volcanic Field: application of BET_EF during the New Zealand National Disaster Exercise ‘Ruaumoko’

The Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF) is a young basaltic field that lies beneath the urban area of Auckland, New Zealand’s largest city. Over the past 250,000 years the AVF has produced at least 49 basaltic centers; the last eruption was only 600 years ago. In recognition of the high risk associated with a possible future eruption in Auckland, the New Zealand government ran Exercise Ruaumoko in March 2008, a test of New Zealand’s nation-wide preparedness for responding to a major disaster resulting from a volcanic eruption in Auckland City. The exercise scenario was developed in secret, and covered the period of precursory activity up until the eruption. During Exercise Ruaumoko we adapted a recently developed statistical code for eruption forecasting, namely BET_EF (Bayesian Event Tree for Eruption Forecasting), to independently track the unrest evolution and to forecast the most likely onset time, location and style of the initial phase of the simulated eruption. The code was set up before the start of the exercise by entering reliable information on the past history of the AVF as well as the monitoring signals expected in the event of magmatic unrest and an impending eruption. The average probabilities calculated by BET_EF during Exercise Ruaumoko corresponded well to the probabilities subjectively (and independently) estimated by the advising scientists (differences of few percentage units), and provided a sound forecast of the timing (before the event, the eruption probability reached 90%) and location of the eruption. This application of BET_EF to a volcanic field that has experienced no historical activity and for which otherwise limited prior information is available shows its versatility and potential usefulness as a tool to aid decision-making for a wide range of volcano types. Our near real-time application of BET_EF during Exercise Ruaumoko highlighted its potential to clarify and possibly optimize decision-making procedures in a future AVF eruption crisis, and as a rational starting point for discussions in a scientific advisory group. It also stimulated valuable scientific discussion around how a future AVF eruption might progress, and highlighted areas of future volcanological research that would reduce epistemic uncertainties through the development of better input models.     

BET_VH: a probabilistic tool for long-term volcanic hazard assessment

In this paper, we illustrate a Bayesian Event Tree to estimate Volcanic Hazard (BET_VH). The procedure enables us to calculate the probability of any kind of long-term hazardous event for which we are interested, accounting for the intrinsic stochastic nature of volcanic eruptions and our limited knowledge regarding related processes. For the input, the code incorporates results from numerical models simulating the impact of hazardous volcanic phenomena on an area and data from the eruptive history. For the output, the code provides a wide and exhaustive set of spatiotemporal probabilities of different events; these probabilities are estimated by means of a Bayesian approach that allows all uncertainties to be properly accounted for. The code is able to deal with many eruptive settings simultaneously, weighting each with its own probability of occurrence. In a companion paper, we give a detailed example of application of this tool to the Campi Flegrei caldera, in order to estimate the hazard from tephra fall.     

Life history and temporal distribution of Orchestia sp. cf. cavimana (Amphipoda, Talitridae) on a lake shore in central Italy

The life history of the amphipod Orchestia sp. cf. cavimana (Heller, 1865) was studied throughout the course of a year with monthly samplings and the use of pitfall traps along the shores of Lake Albano in central Italy. The data thus obtained showed two peaks in abundance (the first in June and the second in October) and a minimum capture frequency in February. Egg-bearing females were recorded in spring and late summer, whilst recruitment occurred from spring to autumn, with maximum in June and October. The data collected also indicated the presence of a positive correlation between the abundance of talitrids and both temperature and sediment moisture. Morphological analysis enabled the identification of four different cohorts (with a lifespan of the species of approximately 12–15 months) all four of which remained distinguishable throughout the course of the year. It, moreover, enabled sex determination in individuals of 5 or more millimetres. The subsequent distribution indicated that, when significant, the sex ratio was female biased and that maximum size was greater in males. In particular, maximum sizes were recorded in spring for both males and females and were of 17.5 and 13.0 mm, respectively. Furthermore, the total body length recorded for egg-bearing females was positively correlated with the number of eggs in their brood pouch.     

A novel approach to infer streamflow signals for ungauged basins

In this paper, we present a novel paradigm for inference of streamflow for ungauged basins. Our innovative procedure fuses concepts from both kernel methods and data assimilation. Based on the modularity and flexibility of kernel techniques and the strengths of the variational Bayesian Kalman filter and smoother, we can infer streamflow for ungauged basins whose hydrological and system properties and/or behavior are non-linear and non-Gaussian. We apply the proposed approach to two watersheds, one in California and one in West Virginia. The inferred streamflow signals for the two watersheds appear promising. These preliminary and encouraging validations demonstrate that our new paradigm is capable of providing accurate conditional estimates of streamflow for ungauged basins with unknown and non-linear dynamics.     

Calibration of rainfall-runoff models in ungauged basins: A regional maximum likelihood approach

Parameter estimation for rainfall-runoff models in ungauged basins is a challenging task that is receiving significant attention by the scientific community. In fact, many practical applications suffer from problems induced by data scarcity, given that hydrological observations are often sparse or unavailable. This study focuses on regional calibration for a generic rainfall-runoff model. The maximum likelihood function in the spectral domain proposed by Whittle [40] is approximated in the time domain by maximising the fit of selected statistics of the river flow process, with the aim to propose a calibration procedure that can be applied at regional scale. Accordingly, the statistics above are related to the dominant climate and catchment characteristics, through regional regression relationships. The proposed technique is applied to the case study of 4 catchments located in central Italy, which are treated as ungauged and are located in a region where detailed hydrological, as well as geomorphologic and climatic information, is available. The results obtained with the regional calibration are compared with those provided by a classical least squares calibration in the time domain. The outcomes of the analysis confirm the potential of the proposed methodology and show that regional information can be very effective for setting up hydrological models.     

The Apure River: geochemistry of major and selected trace elements in an Orinoco River tributary coming from the Andes,Venezuela

The analysis of physicochemical variables and selected dissolved elements was performed on the Apure River waters for 15 months. The variables pH, alkalinity, dissolved O₂, conductivity and Na, Ca, Mg and Cd concentrations showed maximum values during low water, whereas K, Si, Fe, Al, Mn, Zn, Cu, Cr and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) showed maximum concentrations during rising and high water. Five important factors were found to control the amount and temporal variability of the dissolved elements: lithology, hydrology, vegetation–floodplain processes, redox conditions and organic complexation. Weathering of silicates, carbonates and evaporites in the Andes provides most of the proportion of Na, Ca, Mg and HCO₃^? to waters. The temporal variability of these ions is controlled by a dilution process. Although Si can be taken up by the biomass, Si and K can be leached from the floodplain by weathering of clays. Microbial decay of the submerged plants in the floodplain during the inundation periods provides DOC and K to river waters and changes the redox conditions in water. The changing redox conditions control the solubility of Mn, Zn and Fe. Dissolved Mn is a function of pH‐dependent redox process, whereas Zn solubility is controlled by scavenging of Zn during the oxidation of Mn²⁺ to MnO₂. Positive relationships between Al, Fe, Cu, Cr and DOC suggest that these elements are complexed by organic colloids generated in the floodplain. Moreover, the binding capacity of Fe with DOC increases under reducing conditions. Although Cd seems to be provided by weathering in the Andes, several processes can affect the mobility of Cd during transport. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Laboratory-scale study of field of view and the seismic interpretation of fracture specific stiffness

The effects of the scale of measurement, i.e., the field of view, on the interpretation of fracture properties from seismic wave propagation was investigated using an acoustic lens system to produce a pseudo-collimated wavefront. The incident wavefront had a controllable beam diameter that set the field of view at 15 mm, 30 mm and 60 mm. On a smaller scale, traditional acoustic scans were used to probe the fracture in 2 mm increments. This laboratory approach was applied to two limestone samples, each containing a single induced fracture and compared to an acrylic control sample. From the analysis of the average coherent sum of the signals measured on each scale, we observed that the scale of the field of view affected the interpretation of the fracture specific stiffness. Many small-scale measurements of the seismic response of a fracture, when summed, did not predict the large-scale response of the fracture. The change from a frequency-independent to frequency-dependent fracture stiffness occurs when the scale of the field of view exceeds the spatial correlation length associated with fracture geometry. A frequency-independent fracture specific stiffness is not sufficient to classify a fracture as homogeneous. A nonuniform spatial distribution of fracture specific stiffness and overlapping geometric scales in a fracture cause a scale-dependent seismic response, which requires measurements at different field of views to fully characterize the fracture.     

Potential responses of oligochaetes (Annelida, Clitellata) to global changes: Experimental fertilization in a lowland stream of Argentina (South America)

One of the possible consequences of climatic change for streams and rivers in the pampean region of South America is an increment in nutrient loads. To analyze this possible perturbation on a biological scale, the response of oligochaetes to an experimental eutrophication of the La Choza Stream, Argentina was studied. We proposed that the addition of nutrients could increase the abundance, biomass, and species composition of the stream. Two stretches (Control and Treatment sites) were selected, with bimonthly samples being taken (March 2007 through February 2009) in two habitat types: the sediments and the aquatic vegetation. On each sampling occasion the environmental variables were measured. The nutrient addition consisted in the continuous dissolution of a commercial fertilizer. The oligochaete mean density and total biomass, the taxonomic richness, the Shannon diversity (H′), and the evenness (E) were calculated and the BACI ANOVA design used to compare the differences between the sites. Thirty-three species of the families Naididae (Naidinae, Pristininae, Tubificinae, and Rhyacodrilinae), Opistocystidae, Enchytraeidae plus Aphanoneura Aeolosomatidae were collected. The oligochaete abundance and biomass increased significantly in the sediments and on the aquatic vegetation, especially among the Naidinae and Pristininae during their asexual reproductive phase. The diversity and evenness varied significantly in the sediments with the nutrient addition. Significant differences in the species richness and diversity were found on the aquatic vegetation, with both increasing at the treatment site after the fertilization. A significant correlation (Spearman) was observed between the oligochaete density in the sediments and the NO₃-N and NH₄-N concentration in the water. The increment in the naidines resistant to the fertilizer throughout the experiment could be explained by the greater nutrient availability, their mode of reproduction, and their short life cycles. The results of our study suggested that the incorporation of nutrients modified the composition of the oligochaete assemblage in favor of herbivores and detrivores. The usefulness of these indicator organisms in monitoring freshwater systems is subsequently discussed.     

Can Karst Conduit Models Be Calibrated? A Dual Approach Using Dye Tracing and Temperature

Modeling flow and transport using both temperature and dye tracing provides constraints that can improve understanding of karst networks. A laminar flow and transport model using the finite element subsurface flow model simulated the conduit connection between a sinking stream and spring in central Pennsylvania to evaluate how conduit morphology might affect dye transport. Single and overly tortuous conduit models resulted in high concentrations as dye flowed back into the conduit from the matrix after dye injections ceased. A forked conduit model diverted flow from the main conduit, reducing falling limb dye concentration. Latin hypercube sampling was performed to evaluate the sensitivity of 52 parameter combinations (conduit hydraulic conductivity, conduit cross-sectional area, matrix transmissivity, matrix porosity, and dispersivity) for four conduit geometry scenarios. Sensitivity of arrival time for 50% of the dye indicated no parameter combinations which simulate falling limb dye concentrations for tortuous geometries, confirming the importance of the forked geometry regardless of other parameters. Temperature data from high-resolution loggers were then incorporated into the forked conduit model to reproduce seasonal spring temperature using variable sink inflow. Unlike the dye trace models, the thermal models were sensitive to other model parameters, such as conduit cross-sectional area and matrix transmissivity. These results showed this dual approach (dye and temperature) to karst network modeling is useful for (1) exploring the role of conduit and matrix interaction for contaminant storage, (2) constraining karst conduit geometries, which are often poorly understood, and (3) quantifying the effect of seasonal trends on karst aquifers.