Trade, transport, and sinks extend the carbon dioxide responsibility of countries: An editorial essay

Sea-level rise (SLR) due to climate change is a serious global threat: The scientific evidence is now overwhelming. Continued growth of greenhouse gas emissions and associated global warming could well promote SLR of 1 m in this century, and unexpectedly rapid breakup of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets might produce a 3–5 m SLR. In this paper, we assess the consequences of continued SLR for 84 coastal developing countries. Geographic Information System (GIS) software has been used to overlay the best available, spatially disaggregated global data on critical impact elements (land, population, agriculture, urban extent, wetlands, and GDP), with the inundation zones projected for 1–5 m SLR. Our results reveal that tens of millions of people in the developing world are likely to be displaced by SLR within this century; and accompanying economic and ecological damage will be severe for many. At the country level results are extremely skewed, with severe impacts limited to a relatively small number of countries.     

The Role of the Solar Cycle in the Relationship Between the North Atlantic Oscillation and Northern Hemisphere Surface Temperatures

The North Atlantic Oscillation （NAO） is one of the leading modes of climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere. It has been shown that it clearly relates to changes in meteorological variables, such as surface temperature, at hemispherical scales. However, recent studies have revealed that the NAO spatial pattern also depends upon solar forcing. Therefore, its effects on meteorological variables must vary depending upon this factor. Moreover, it could be that the Sun affects climate through variability patterns, a hypothesis that is the focus of this study. We find that the relationship between the NAO/AO and hemispheric temperature varies depending upon solar activity. The results show a positive significant correlation only when solar activity is high. Also, the results support the idea that solar activity influences tropospheric climate fluctuations in the Northern Hemisphere via the fluctuations of the stratospheric polar vortex .     

Mineralogical controls on environmental mobility of arsenic from historic mine processing residues,New Zealand

Processing of arsenopyrite ore took place at Blackwater Au mine, New Zealand, between 1908 and 1951 and no rehabilitation was undertaken after mine closure. High As concentrations in solid processing residues (up to 40 wt% As) are due to secondary As minerals. Site pH regimes vary from 4.1 to circum-neutral. Originally, all processed As was present as arsenolite (arsenic trioxide polymorph, As^III), a by-product of arsenopyrite roasting. Near the roaster, scorodite precipitated as a result of the high dissolved As concentration during arsenolite dissolution. The formation of scorodite has two major consequences. Firstly, the scorodite precipitate cements the ground in the vicinity of the roaster area, thereby creating an impermeable surface crust (up to 30 wt% As) and encapsulating weathered arsenolite grains within the cement. Secondly, formation of scorodite temporarily immobilizes some of the dissolved As that is generated during nearby arsenolite dissolution. Where all the available arsenolite has dissolved, scorodite becomes soluble, and the dissolved As concentrations are controlled by scorodite solubility, which is at least two orders of magnitudes lower than arsenolite solubility. Downstream Eh conditions fall below the As^V/As^III boundary, so that scorodite does not precipitate and dissolved As concentrations are controlled by arsenolite solubility. Dissolved As reaches up to 52 mg/L in places, and exceeds the current WHO drinking water guideline of 0.01 mg/L by 5200 times. This study shows that dissolved As concentrations in discharge waters at historic mine sites are dependent on the processing technology and associated mineralogy.     

An iron isotope signature related to electron transfer between aqueous ferrous iron and goethite

We measured the Fe isotope fractionation during the reactions of Fe(II) with goethite in the presence and absence of a strong Fe(III) chelator (desferrioxamine mesylate, DFAM). All experiments were completed in an O₂-free glove box. The concentrations of aqueous Fe(II) ([Fe(II)_aq]) decreased below the initial total dissolved Fe concentrations ([Fe(II)_total], 2.15 mM) due to fast adsorption within 0.2 day. The concentration of adsorbed Fe(II) ([Fe(II)_ads]) was determined as the difference between [Fe(II)_aq] and the concentration of extracted Fe(II) in 0.5 M HCl ([Fe(II)_extr]) (i.e., [Fe(II)_ads] = [Fe(II)_extr] − [Fe(II)_aq]). [Fe(II)_ads] also decreased with time in experiments with and without DFAM, documenting that fast adsorption was accompanied by a second, slower reaction. Interestingly, [Fe(II)_extr] was always smaller than [Fe(II)_total], indicating that some Fe(II) was sequestered into a pool that is not HCl-extractable. The difference was attributed to Fe(II) incorporated into goethite structure (i.e., [Fe(II)_inc] = [Fe(II)_total] −[Fe(II)_extr]). More Fe(II) was incorporated in the presence of DFAM than in its absence at all time steps. Regardless of the presence of DFAM, both aqueous and extracted Fe(II) (δ^56/54Fe(II)_aq and δ^56/54Fe(II)_extr) became isotopically lighter than or similar to goethite (− 0.27‰) at day 7, implying that the isotope exchange occurred between bulk goethite and aqueous Fe. Consistently, the mass balance indicated that the incorporated Fe is isotopically heavier than extracted Fe. These observations suggested that (i) co-adsorption of Fe(II) with DFAM resulted in more pervasive electron transfer, (ii) the electron transfer from heavy Fe(II) in the adsorbed Fe(II) to light Fe(III) in goethite results in the fixation of heavy adsorbed Fe(III) on the surface and accumulation of Fe(II) within the goethite, and (iii) desorption of the reduced, light Fe from goethite does not necessarily occur at the same surface sites where adsorption occurred.     

Impact of ancient metal smelting on arsenic pollution in the Pecora River Valley,Southern Tuscany,Italy

A significant As anomaly has been reported in the literature for stream sediments and unlithified Quaternary deposits of the Pecora River valley in Southern Tuscany, extending from the “Colline Metallifere” pyrite-base metals district to the Tyrrhenian Sea. The As anomaly spreads over several square kilometers around a core that exceeds 500 ppm. Several source contributions (from natural to anthropogenic) have been invoked to explain the observed As distribution in the Pecora Valley, including the metal-working industry which was active in this area, particularly in Etrusco-Roman times and in the Middle Ages. In order to evaluate the contribution of ancient mining and metallurgical activities in the Pecora Valley to elevated As concentrations in the environment, a detailed mineralogical and geochemical survey of metallurgical slags and smelted ore minerals was undertaken from six different sites through the Pecora Valley: Poggio Butelli (Etrusco-Roman iron slags); Sata Creek, Arialla, Marsiliana, Forra and Cascata sites (all Medieval base metals slags). The As content of Etrusco-Roman slags is relatively low (few tens of ppm), whereas Medieval slags show variable, but higher amounts of base metals (±Ag) (ranging from tens to tens of thousands ppm) and As (up to 267 ppm, with average contents of about 40 ppm). Arsenic is mostly partitioned in sulfides disseminated through the glassy groundmass rather than in solid solution with the glassy matrix. Remnants of the ore used for base metal and Ag smelting during the Middle Ages had the highest As contents (up to about 1000 ppm).     

High Arctic sea ice conditions influence marine birds wintering in Low Arctic regions

Ocean climate change is having profound biological effects in polar regions. Such change can also have far-reaching downstream effects in sub-polar regions. This study documents an environmental relationship between High Arctic sea ice changes and mortality events of marine birds in Low Arctic coastal regions. During April 2007 and March 2009, hundreds of beached seabird carcasses and moribund seabirds were found along the east and northeast coasts of Newfoundland, Canada. These seabird “wrecks” (i.e. dead birds on beaches) coincided with a period of strong, persistent onshore winds and heavily-accumulated sea ice that blocked bays and trapped seabirds near beaches. Ninety-two percent of wreck seabirds were Thick-billed Murres (Uria lomvia). Body condition and demographic patterns of wreck murres were compared to Thick-billed Murres shot in the Newfoundland murre hunt. Average body and pectoral masses of wreck carcasses were 34% and 40% lighter (respectively) than shot murres, indicating that wreck birds had starved. The acute nature of each wreck suggested that starvation and associated hypothermia occurred within 2–3 days. In 2007, first-winter murres (77%) dominated the wreck. In 2009, there were more adults (78%), mostly females (66%). These results suggest that spatial and temporal segregation in ages and sexes can play a role in differential survival when stochastic weather conditions affect discrete areas where these groups aggregate. In wreck years, southward movement of Arctic sea ice to Low Arctic latitudes was later and blocked bays longer than in most other years. These inshore conditions corresponded with recent climate-driven changes in High Arctic ice break-up and ice extent; coupled with local weather conditions, these ice conditions appeared to be the key environmental features that precipitated the ice-associated seabird wrecks in the Low Arctic region.     

Lake ice and temperature trends for Ontario and Manitoba: 2001 to 2014

Lakes are a prominent geographic feature in northern landscapes and play an important role in understanding regional climate systems. In order to better model changes within climate systems, it is important to study lake ice processes. Although the availability of records for lake ice through ground measurements has declined in recent years, the increased use of remote sensing provides an alternative to this. Using a preclassified snow and ice remote sensing product with a 500‐m resolution, based on images from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS/MOD10A1), and the use of measured and reanalysis temperature data, this study evaluated lake ice phenology dates in connection to recent trends in temperature and 0 °C isotherms within Ontario and Manitoba between 2001 and 2014. Temperature trends indicated both regional warming and cooling, with significant cooling observed in Southern Ontario (p < .05) and significant warming in Southern Manitoba (p < .1) during the fall. Spatial analysis of the trends in the lake ice data showed significant clustering of significant trends in ice on dates (p < .01). When analysing the trends in ice phenology in connection to the trends in temperature, it was found that 70% of lakes experienced a change in the ice on date with the expected change in temperature and 85% of lakes for ice off date. When shifting ice on and ice off dates are investigated in relation to 0 °C isotherms, it was seen that 80% of ice on dates and 100% of ice off dates shifted in sync with the isotherm dates. This demonstrates that the ice phenology of lakes in Ontario and Manitoba, Canada, is responding to short‐term variability in temperature. The MODIS product could be used to investigate ice phenology on a large scale and contribute towards expanding existing records of ice phenology. Establishing long‐term ice records could be a valuable asset for other research ranging from water balance studies to the response of lake biota under changing climate.     

Global fits for the spectral index of the cosmological curvature perturbation

Best-fitting values of the spectral index of the curvature perturbation are presented, assuming the ΛCDM cosmology. Apart from the spectral index, the parameters are the Hubble parameter, the total matter density and the baryon density. The data points are intended to represent all measurements that are likely to affect the result significantly. The cosmic microwave anisotropy is represented by the COBE normalization, and heights of the first and second peaks are given by the latest Boomerang and Maxima data. The slope of the galaxy correlation function and the matter density contrast on the 8  h ⁻¹ Mpc scale are each represented by a data point, as are the expected values of the Hubble parameter and matter density. The 'low-deuterium' nucleosynthesis value of the baryon density provides a final data point, the fit giving a value higher by about one standard deviation. The reionization epoch is calculated from the model by assuming that it corresponds to the collapse of a fraction f ≳10⁻⁴ of matter. We consider the case of a scale-independent spectral index, and also the scale-dependent spectral index predicted by running mass models of inflation. In the former case, the result is compared with the prediction of models of inflation based on effective field theory, in which the field value is small on the Planck scale. A detailed comparison is made with other fits, and other approaches to the comparison with theory.     

Black hole demographics from the relation

We analyse a sample of 32 galaxies for which a dynamical estimate of the mass of the hot stellar component, M _bulge, is available. For each of these galaxies, we calculate the mass of the central black hole, M _•, using the tight empirical correlation between M _• and bulge stellar velocity dispersion. The frequency function     is reasonably well described as a Gaussian with     and standard deviation ∼0.45; the implied mean ratio of black hole mass to bulge mass is a factor of ∼5 smaller than generally quoted in the literature. We present marginal evidence for a lower, average black hole mass fraction in more massive galaxies. The total mass density in black holes in the local Universe is estimated to be ∼     consistent with that inferred from high-redshift     active galactic nuclei.