Spatial and isotopic analysis of watershed soil loss and reservoir sediment accumulation rates in Lake Anna, Virginia, USA

Soil erosion and associated sedimentation are a threat to the sustainable use of surface water resources through the loss of volume storage capacity and conveyance of pollutants to receiving water bodies. The RUSLE2 empirical model and isotopic sediment core analyses were used to evaluate watershed erosion and reservoir sediment accumulation rates for Lake Anna, in Central Virginia. A sediment flux rate of 66,000 Mg/year was estimated from the upper basin and land use was determined to be the primary factor contributing to soil erosion. Barren lands and agricultural activities were estimated to contribute the most sediment (>20 Mg/ha/year), whereas forested and herbaceous landscapes were less likely to erode (<0.3 Mg/ha/year). Eleven separate ²¹⁰Pb-based estimates of sediment accumulation were used to construct reservoir-scale sedimentation rates. Sedimentation rates in the upper reaches of the reservoir were variable, ranging from 2.3 to 100 Mg/ha/year, with a median rate of 8.4 Mg/ha/year. Historical sedimentation showed an increase in annual accumulation from 1972 to present. Based on these data the reservoir has experienced a 2% loss of volume storage capacity since impoundment in 1972. Results from this study indicate that Lake Anna is not currently experiencing excessive sedimentation and erosion problems. However, the predominance of highly erosive soils (soil erodibility factor >0.30) within the watershed makes this system highly vulnerable to future anthropogenic stressors.     

Drinking water production from surface water sources in the tropics: Brasília DF,Brazil

Drinking water production at three waterworks was evaluated with respect to variable weather conditions in the Brasília Distrito Federal. Results of the investigation revealed that seasonal variations in rainfall play an important role in influencing the quality of the surface water sources used for drinking water production in the district. In most surface sources, particles and apparent colour are likely to originate from erosion during rain events. This represents the primary challenge facing waterworks, notably when the raw water qualities of the sources to be treated at one facility differ by one order of magnitude, as well significantly varying from one season to the next. Treatment efficiencies in terms of turbidity, apparent colour and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) removal were evaluated. Drinking water quality was found to be significantly influenced by raw water quality at all considered treatment plants. With regard to DOC removal, treatment was most efficient in waterworks which treated raw water with high percentages of biopolymers and humics. Most dissolved organics were removed by coagulation. Finally, conclusions are drawn on how to better cope with challenges facing drinking water production in a tropical climate. The first of these recommendations is the introduction of online turbidity and dissolved organic matter monitoring in order to optimise the coagulation process for the removal of these two parameters. A combination of different coagulants could also be considered for this process. Additional more sophisticated improvements to process stability, such as determination of floc characteristics, introduction of artificial neural networks or the eventual upgrade of the treatment train using membrane filtration, are also suggested.     

Cohesive‐frictional model for bond and splitting action of prestressing wire

This paper presents a numerical procedure for bond between indented wires and concrete, and the coupled splitting process of the surrounding concrete. The bond model is an interface, non‐associative, plasticity model. It is coupled with a cohesive fracture model for concrete to take into account the splitting of such concrete. Bond between steel and concrete is fundamental for the transmission of stresses between both materials in precast prestressed concrete. Indented wires are used to improve the bond in these structural elements. The radial component of the prestressing force, increased by Poisson's effect, may split the surrounding concrete, decreasing the wire confinement and diminishing the bonding. The combined action of the bond and the splitting is studied with the proposed model. The results of the numerical model are compared with the results of a series of tests, such as those which showed splitting induced by the bond between wire and concrete. Tests with different steel indentation depths were performed. The numerical procedure accurately reproduces the experimental records and improves knowledge of this complex process. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Solar shield: forecasting and mitigating space weather effects on high-voltage power transmission systems

In this paper, central elements of the Solar Shield project, launched to design and establish an experimental system capable of forecasting the space weather effects on high-voltage power transmission system, are described. It will be shown how Sun–Earth system data and models hosted at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) are used to generate two-level magnetohydrodynamics-based forecasts providing 1–2 day and 30–60 min lead-times. The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) represents the end-user, the power transmission industry, in the project. EPRI integrates the forecast products to an online display tool providing information about space weather conditions to the member power utilities. EPRI also evaluates the economic impacts of severe storms on power transmission systems. The economic analysis will quantify the economic value of the generated forecasting system. The first version of the two-level forecasting system is currently running in real-time at CCMC. An initial analysis of the system’s capabilities has been completed, and further analysis is being carried out to optimize the performance of the system. Although the initial results are encouraging, definite conclusions about system’s performance can be given only after more extensive analysis, and implementation of an automatic evaluation process using forecasted and observed geomagnetically induced currents from different nodes of the North American power transmission system. The final output of the Solar Shield will be a recommendation for an optimal forecasting system that may be transitioned into space weather operations.     

TEC measurements and modelling over Southern Africa during magnetic storms; a comparative analysis

This paper presents the results from a study designed to investigate the ability of a newly developed neural network (NN) based model to follow total electron content (TEC) dynamics over the Southern African region. The investigation is carried out by comparing results from the NN model with actual TEC data derived from Global Positioning System (GPS) observations and TEC values predicted by the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI-2007) model during magnetic storm periods over Southern Africa. The magnetic storm conditions chosen for the study presented in this paper occurred during the periods 16–21 April 2002, 1–6 October 2002, and 28 October–01 November 2003. A total of six South African GPS stations were used for the validation of the two models during these periods. A statistical analysis of the comparison between the actual TEC behaviour and that predicted by the two models is shown. In addition, ionosonde measurements from the South African Louisvale (28.5°S, 21.2°E) station, located close to one of the validation GPS stations used, are also considered during the Halloween storm period of 28–31 October 2003. The generalisation of TEC behaviour by the NN model is demonstrated by producing predicted TEC maps during magnetic storm periods over South Africa. Presented results demonstrate the ability of NNs in predicting TEC variability over South Africa during magnetically disturbed conditions, and highlight areas for improvement.     

Testing bedload transport equations with consideration of time scales

Bedload transport is known to be a highly fluctuating temporal phenomenon, even under constant (mean) flow conditions, as a consequence of stochasticity, bedform migration, grain sorting, hysteresis, or sediment supply limitation. Because bedload transport formulas usually refer to a single mean transport value for a given flow condition, one can expect that prediction accuracy (when compared to measurements) will depend on the amplitude and duration of fluctuations, which in turn depend on the time scale used for observations. This paper aims to identify how the time scale considered can affect bedload prediction. This was done by testing 16 common bedload transport formulas with four data sets corresponding to different measurement period durations: (i) highly fluctuating (quasi‐)instantaneous field measurements; (ii) volumes accumulated at the event scale on two small alpine gravel‐bed rivers, potentially affected by seasonal fluctuations; (iii) volumes accumulated at the interannual scale in a meandering gravel bed river, thought to be weakly subject to fluctuations; (iv) time‐integrated flume measurements with nearly uniform sediments. The tests confirmed that the longer the measurement period, the better the precision of the formula's prediction interval. They also demonstrate several consequential limitations. Most threshold formulas are no longer valid when the flow condition is below two times the threshold condition for the largest elements' motion on the bed surface (considering D₈₄). In such conditions, equations either predict zero transport, or largely overestimate the real transport, especially when D₈₄ is high. There is a need for new sediment data collected with highly reliable techniques such as recording slot bedload samplers to further investigate this topic. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Production in the Sahel – Part 1. Methodological Approach and Case Study for Millet in Niger

In the last 30 years the climate of the West African Sahel has shown various changes, especially in terms of rainfall, of which inter-annual variabilityis very high. This has significant consequences for the poor-resource farmers, whose incomes depend mainly on rainfed agriculture. The West African Sahel is already known as an area characterized by important interaction between climate variability and key socio-economic sectors such as agriculture and water resources. More than 80% of the 55 million population of West African Sahel is rural, involved in agriculture and stock-farming, the two sectors contributing almost 35% of the countries' GDPs. It is thereforeobvious that climate change seriously affects the economies of these countries. Adding to this situation the high rate of population increase(3%), leading to progressive pressure upon ecosystems, and poorsanitary facilities, one comes to the conclusion that Sahelian countries, Niger amongst them, will be highly vulnerable to climate change.This paper investigates the impact of current climate variability and future climate change on millet production for three major millet-producing regions in Niger. Statistical models have been used to predict the effects of climate change on future production on the basis of thirteen available predictors. Based on the analysis of the past 30-years of rainfall and production data, the most significant predictors of the model are (i) seasurface temperature anomalies, (ii) the amount of rainfall in July, August and September, (iii) the number of rainy days and (iv) the wind erosion factor. In 2025, production of millet is estimated to be about 13% lower as a consequence of climate change, translated into a reduction of the total amount of rainfall for July, August and September, combined with an increase in temperature while maintaining other significant predictors at a constant level. Subsequently,various potential strategies to compensate this loss are evaluated, including those to increase water use efficiency and to cultivate varieties that are adapted to such circumstances.     

Numerical Study Of The Impact Of Coherent Structures On Vertical Transfers In The Atmospheric Boundary Layer

In two preceding papers, coherent structures of theatmospheric boundary layer (ABL), such as rollvortices or cells, were investigated through radar andaircraft observations collected during the TRAC-93(Turbulence Radar Aircraft Cells) experiment held inFrance in June 1993. The analysis of this experimentaldata set provided information on the spatialcharacteristics of these organisations (length scale,orientation, type ... ), their temporal and verticalevolution, and their relation with the dynamic andthermodynamic conditions of the ABL. For the thirdpaper in this series, a large eddy simulation model is used to examine the impact of thecoherent structures on the ABL vertical fluxes. Theanalysis of the simulated horizontal fields is madewith two-dimensional auto and cross-correlationsapplied on different pertinent ABL variables. Theresults emphasise a directional anisotropy of theseorganised fields throughout the ABL, much morepronounced in the heat flux fields, not only at thelength scale of organisations but also at theturbulence scales. This finding has an importantconsequence for traditional ABL flux measurementsbased on the hypothesis of isotropic and homogeneousturbulence. It can explain part of the underestimationof the surface fluxes often mentioned in theliterature. This approach makes it possible tomodify the concept of diffusion time (in chemicalmodelling) and could also lead to revised ABLparameterisations in Range Scale models.     

Photochemical activation of chlorine by iron-oxide aerosol

The photochemical activation of chlorine by dissolved iron in artificial sea-salt aerosol droplets and by highly dispersed iron oxide (Fe₂O₃) aerosol particles (mainly hematite, specific surface ~150 m² g^?1) exposed to gaseous HCl, was investigated in humidified air in a Teflon simulation chamber. Employing the radical-clock technique, we quantified the production of gaseous atomic chlorine (Cl) from the irradiated aerosol. When the salt aerosol contained Fe₂O₃ at pH 6, no significant Cl production was observed, even if the dissolution of iron was forced by “weathering” (repeatedly freezing and thawing for five times). Adjusting the pH in the stock suspension to 2.6, 2.2, and 1.9 and equilibrating for one week resulted in a quantifiable amount of dissolved iron (0.03, 0.2, and 0.6 mmol L^?1, respectively) and in gaseous Cl production rates of ~1.6, 6, and 8?×?10²¹ atoms cm^?2 h^?1, respectively. In a further series of experiments, the pure Fe₂O₃ aerosol was exposed to various levels of gaseous hydrogen chloride (HCl). The resulting Cl production rates ranged from 8?×?10²⁰ Cl atoms cm^?2 h^?1 (at ~4 ppb HCl) to 5?×?10²² Cl atoms cm^?2 h^?1 (at ~350 ppb HCl) and confirmed the uptake and conversion of HCl to atomic Cl (at HCl to Cl conversion yields of 2–5 %, depending on the relative humidity). The Fe₂O₃ experiments indicate that iron-induced Cl formation may be important for highly soluble combustion-aerosol particles in marine environments in the presence of gaseous HCl.