Using ALSM to map sinkholes in the urbanized covered karst of Pinellas County,Florida—1, methodological considerations

Comparison of a database of interpreted sinkholes made using airborne laser swath mapping (ALSM) with databases of sinkholes made from interpretation of aerial photographs reveals substantial disagreement. The discrepancies involve the location, number, areas, and circularity of interpreted sinkholes. Methodological factors that contribute to the discrepancies include blockage of ALSM laser returns in thick vegetation, multi-path reflections, and misrepresentation of the true extent of sinkholes. Comparison of two ALSM-derived databases made (1) independently from versus (2) in combination with earlier air photo analysis in undeveloped regions had the following result: one-fourth of the sinkholes interpreted by using the composite method were missed by the independent analysis, and one-third of the sinkholes that were interpreted from the independent analysis were not interpreted as sinkholes using the composite method. Subjective interpretation leads to a high level of uncertainty such that the results of the remote sensing studies are suspect, if not invalid.     

应用等效纬度-海拔模型进行地温及多年冻土制图

This research presents a method for permafrost mapping in discontinuous permafrost regions based on equivalent latitude/elevation concept in interior Alaska. In winter months, study site has a strong temperature inversion in air up to 700 m elevation. Air temperature data and the effects of slope, aspect and elevation were used to create an equivalent latitude/elevation model. This model was well correlated with mean annual surface temperature (0.79). In this watershed, the thawing index (It≈1 400 ℃*days) at the ground surface and snow depth do not vary greatly from south facing to north facing slopes. The primary controlled factor that determines the mean annual surface temperature was the winter surface temperature. The permafrost stability is effectively controlled by the freezing index. We determined 37.5% of Caribou-Poker Creeks Research Watershed has unstable or thawing permafrost. At least 2.1% of the permafrost in this watershed may have disappeared in the last 90 years due to climate warming. This method makes it possible to evaluate the permafrost stability in the present, past and future.     

Quantifying how climatic factors affect variation in plant disease severity: A general method using a new way to analyze meteorological data

A general method is presented for analyzing how climatic conditions affect plant disease severity. An example of its application is given for the analysis of stripe rust (caused by Puccinia striiformis) data on winter wheat cultivar Gaines and climatic data collected at Pullman, WA. for 1968–1986. A computer program WINDOW was written to identify the climatic factors most highly correlated with disease. This program is designed to utilize meteorological data for an entire growing season of a crop as well as to include climatic conditions preceding planting. This program uses an iterative process to examine variable-length segments of meteorological data in a more exhaustive analysis than previously possible. Climatic factors considered include: mean maximum, minimum, and average temperature; total and frequency of precipitation; consecutive days with and without precipitation; accumulation of negative and positive degree days; and number of days with extreme temperature events. Variables that were highly correlated with disease were the basis for regression models that were developed to predict disease severity index for each of the three cultivars. Two- and three-variable models explained, respectively, 75 and 76% of the variation in disease from year to year. Predictions (which could be made early enough in the growing season to allow application of chemical control) were evaluated on the basis of whether years with severe disease were accurately predicted. Models were validated using Allen's PRESS statistic and by application to new data. The method is potentially applicable to studies of how climatic conditions affect the populations or productivity of other types of organisms.This research was supported by a National Science Foundation Grant (ATM 85-03115), Climate Dynamics Program, Division of Atmospheric Sciences.     

Large earthquakes in the macquarie ridge complex: Transitional tectonics and subduction initiation

While most aspects of subduction have been extensively studied, the process of subduction initiation lacks an observational foundation. The Macquarie Ridge complex (MRC) forms the Pacific-Australia plate boundary between New Zealand to the north and the Pacific-Australia-Antarctica triple junction to the south. The MRC consists of alternating troughs and rises and is characterized by a transitional tectonic environment in which subduction initiation presently occurs. There is a high seismicity level with 15 large earthquakes (M>7) in this century. Our seismological investigation is centered on the largest event since 1943: the 25 MAY 1981 earthquake. Love, Rayleigh, andP waves are inverted to find: a faulting geometry of right-lateral strike-slip along the local trend of the Macquarie Ridge (N30°E); a seismic moment of 5×10²⁷ dyn cm (M _w=7.7) a double event rupture process with a fault length of less than 100km to the southwest of the epicenter and a fault depth of less than 20km. Three smaller thrust earthquakes occurred previous to the 1981 event along the 1981 rupture zone; their shallow-dipping thrust planes are virtually adjacent to the 1981 vertical fault plane. Oblique convergence in this region is thus accommodated by a dual rupture mode of several small thrust events and a large strike-slip event. Our study of other large MRC earthquakes, plus those of other investigators, produces focal mechanisms for 15 earthquakes distributed along the entire MRC; thrust and right-lateral strike-slip events are scattered throughout the MRC. Thus, all of the MRC is characterized by oblique convergence and the dual rupture mode. The true best-fit rotation pole for the Pacific-Australia motion is close to the Minster & Jordan RM2 pole for the Pacific-India motion. Southward migration of the rotation pole has caused the recent transition to oblique convergence in the northern MRC. We propose a subduction initiation process that is akin to crack propagation; the 1981 earthquake rupture area is identified as the crack-tip region that separates a disconnected mosaic of small thrust faults to the south from a horizontally continuous thrust interface to the north along the Puysegur trench. A different mechanism of subduction initiation occurs in the southernmost Hjort trench region at the triple junction. newly created oceanic lithosphere has been subducted just to the north of the triple junction. The entire MRC is a soft plate boundary that must accommodate the plate motion mismatch between two major spreading centers (Antarctica-Australia and Pacific-Antarctica). The persistence of spreading motion at the two major spreading centers and the consequent evolution of the three-plate system cause the present-day oblique convergence and subduction initiation in the Macquarie Ridge complex.     

Estimating the mean temperature and salinity of the Chesapeake Bay mouth

We used an extensive temperature and salinity data set to develop a statistically meaningful way of estimating mean temperature and salinity from discrete measurements in the mouth of Chesapeake Bay. From April 1992 to December 1998, the Center for Coastal Physical Oceanography completed 73 monthly hydrographic sections at high spring tide across the mouth of Chesapeake Bay. Time series of area weighted mean bay mouth temperature (MBMT) and salinity (MBMS) were calculated. We found that at any time the temperature at any location in the section correlated with the MBMT with a r² of 0.95 or better. A similar analysis for salinity showed that the best correlation was about 0.9 with many locations below 0.8. A correlation between MBMT and temperature at a nearby tide station indicated it was possible to estimate MBMT from the temperature at the tide station to ±0.74°C (90% confidence interval). Salinity was not measured at the tide station, but the correlation at a location in the section similar to the tide station indicates that MBMS can be estimated with an error of ±1.5 (90% confidence interval).     

Hydrogeology of the vicinity of Homestake mine, South Dakota, USA

The former Homestake mine in South Dakota (USA) cuts fractured metamorphic rock over a region several km² in plan, and plunges to the SE to a depth of 2.4 km. Numerical simulations of the development and dewatering of the mine workings are based on idealizing the mine-workings system as two overlapping continua, one representing the open drifts and the other representing the host rock with hydrologic properties that vary with effective stress. Equating macroscopic hydrologic properties with characteristics of deformable fractures allows the number of parameters to be reduced, and it provides a physically based justification for changes in properties with depth. The simulations explain important observations, including the co-existence of shallow and deep flow systems, the total dewatering flow rate, the spatial distribution of in-flow, and the magnitude of porosity in the mine workings. The analysis indicates that a deep flow system induced by ~125 years of mining is contained within a surface-truncated ellipsoid roughly 8 km by 4 km in plan view and 5.5 km deep with its long-axis aligned to the strike of the workings. Groundwater flow into the southern side of the workings is characterized by short travel times from the ground surface, whereas flow into the northern side and at depth consists of old water removed from storage.     

Tracking particle-associated processes in nearshore environments by use of 234Th/238U disequilibrium

Measurement of excess ²³⁴Th (t_1/2 = 24.1 days) in surface sediment from 12 stations throughout Long Island Sound, U.S.A., demonstrates: (1) a mean (summer) sediment inventory of 3.6 dpm/cm² consistent with complete, nearly instantaneous removal of ²³⁴Th from the overlying water and capture within the estuary, and (2) preferential association of excess ²³⁴Th with small particles and inventory build-ups in muddy bottom areas. There may also be a tendency for higher inventories in areas of high physical or biogenic reworking of surface sediments. A range of particle reworking rates (0–5 cm) from <0.01 × 10^?6 to 1.6 × 10^?6 cm²/s is found in the Sound with most values ～0.2?0.5 × 10^?6 cm²/s. The inventory and reworking patterns demonstrate the high mobility, both horizontal and vertical, of particles in the estuary on ²³⁴Th decay time scales and are unequivocal evidence for control of reactive element distribution in the water column by the muddy regions of the basin.     

Turbulent carbon exchange in very stable conditions

Turbulent fluxes obtained using the conventional eddy covariance approach result in erratic results with large time fluctuations in extremely stable conditions. This can limit efforts to estimate components of the nocturnal energy budget and respiratory CO₂ fluxes. Well-organized fluxes that show a clear dependence on turbulent intensity were obtained when multiresolution decomposition was used to estimate turbulent exchanges. CO₂, heat and water vapour fluxes were observed at a site in the eastern Amazon basin that had been cleared for agricultural purposes. Temporal scales of the carbon transfer were determined and shown to be similar to those of latent heat, but as much as three times larger than those of sensible heat. CO₂ eddy diffusivities at the temporal scales on which most of the vertical CO₂ exchange occurs are shown to be 50 times larger than the eddy diffusivity for heat. A process associated with the vertical scale of the scalar accumulation layer is suggested to explain these different scales and turbulent diffusivities of carbon and sensible heat transfer. For an appreciable range of turbulence intensities, the observed vertical turbulent carbon exchange is insufficient to account for the locally respired CO₂ estimated independently. Evidence that shallow drainage currents may account for this is given.