The GRAPES Variational Bias Correction Scheme and Associated Preliminary Experiments

The variational assimilation theory is generally based on unbiased observations. In practice, however, almost all observations suffer from biases arising from observational instruments, radiative transfer operator, precondition of data, and so on. Therefore, a bias correction scheme is indispensable. The current scheme for radiance bias correction in the GRAPES 3DVar system is an offline scheme. It is actually a static correction for the radiance bias before the process of cost function minimization. In consideration of its effects on forecast results, this kind of scheme has some shortcomings. Thus, this study provides a variational bias correction (VarBC) scheme for the GRAPES 3DVar system following Dee’s idea. In the VarBC scheme, the observation operator is modified and a new control variable is defined by taking the predictor coefficients as the control parameters. According to the feature of the GRAPES-3DVAR, an incremental formulation is applied and the original bias correction scheme is maintained in the actual process of observations. The VarBC is designed to co-exist with the original scheme, because it is a dynamic revision to the observational operator on the basis of the old method, i.e., it adjusts the model state vector along with the control parameters to an unbiased state in the process of minimization and the assimilation system remains consistent with available information automatically. Preliminary experimental results show that the mean departures of background-minus-observation and analysis-minus-observation are reduced as expected. In a case study of the heavy rainfall that happened in South China on 11–13 June 2008, the 500-hPa geopotential height is better simulated using the analyzed field from the VarBC as the initial condition.     

Impact of vegetation changes on a mesoscale convective system in West Africa

The evolution of precipitating convective systems in West Africa has been a research topic throughout the past three decades and is considered to be influenced by surface–atmosphere interactions. This study builds on the previous research by examining the sensitivity of a mesoscale convective system (MCS) to a change in the vegetation cover by using a regional atmospheric model with a high horizontal resolution. Vegetation cover values in the region between 10 and 15°N have increased by 10–30% over the last 20 years. The effect of both an increase and a decrease in vegetation cover by 10, 20 and 30% is investigated. The MCS case selected occurred on 11 June 2006 and was observed during the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis field campaign in Dano, Burkina Faso. The model is able to reproduce the most important characteristics of the MCS and the atmospheric environment. For the investigated case, no clear precipitation response of the MCS to the applied vegetation scenarios is found. The vegetation changes do alter the surface fluxes in the days before the MCS arrives, which have a clear effect on the modelled convective available potential energy (CAPE) values. However, a link between CAPE, mesoscale circulation and rainfall amounts could not be demonstrated as a dynamical mechanism is found to counteract the CAPE signal. By using a kilometre-scale model, a change in the cold pool dynamics of the MCS could be detected which results from alterations in boundary layer moisture. The effect of vegetation changes on the MCS is thus not straightforward and a complex interaction between different processes should be taken into account.     

Stratigraphic architecture of the fluvio-lacustrine deposits, Bathan Formation, Al-Rehaili area, North Jeddah, Saudi Arabia

A siliciclastic-dominated succession (～11 m thick) underlying Harrat Rahat, belonging to the Miocene–Pliocene Bathan Formation is recently exposed at Al-Rehaili area, North Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. It covers a wide spectrum of grain sizes varying from clay-rich mudstones to cobble grade conglomerate and consists of a variety of facies vary from fluvial to marginal and open lacustrine deposited in a half-graben basin formed along the eastern margin of the extensional Red Sea Basin. Field-based sedimentologic investigation enables to identify ten facies grouped into three facies associations (A–C). The depositional history is subdivided into two stages. The first stage represents deposition in gravel to sand-dominated fluvial system sourced from a southern source and grade northward into lacustrine delta and open lacustrine setting. The second stage on the other hand includes deposition of fluvial channels running in E–W direction with attached bank sand bar. Sequence stratigraphic interpretations of the lacustrine deposits enable to identify three unconformity-bounded sequences (SQ_1–3). The basal sequence is incomplete, consisting of three aggradationally to progradationally stacked delta plain and delta front parasequences. The second sequence is sharply and erosively overlying a red paleosol bed that defines the upper boundary of the first sequence. It includes two system tracts; upward-fining and deepening lacustrine offshore mudstones of the transgressive system tracts unconformably overlain by red paleosol of the regressive systems tracts. The top of this sequence is delineated at the sharp transgressive surface of erosion at the base of delta mouth bar deposits of sequence 3. Changes in the accommodation and sedimentation rates by basin subsidence under the influence of tectonics and sediment compaction and loading as well as climatic oscillation between semi-arid to arid conditions were the major controls on the fluvio-lacustrine sedimentation and their facies distribution. Tectonic reorganization of the drainage system resulted in the formation of E–W flowing fluvial streams in the second stage.     

Influence of the saffman force,lift force,and electric force on sand grain transport in a wind–sand flow

Quasi-horizontal trajectories of salting sand grains were found using high-speed video-recording in the desertified territory of the Astrakhan region. The sizes and displacement velocities of the saltating sand grains were determined. A piecewise logarithmic approximation of the wind profile in a quasi-stationary wind–sand flow is suggested, which is consistent with the data of observations and modeling. It was established that, in the regime of stationary saltation, the wind profile in the lower saltation layer of the wind–sand flow depends only slightly on the wind profile variations in the upper saltation layer. The vertical profiles of the horizontal wind component gradient in a quasi-stationary wind–sand flow were calculated and plotted. It was shown using high-speed video recording of the trajectory of a sand grain with an approximate diameter of 95 μm that the weightlessness condition in the desertified territory of the Astrakhan region in a stationary wind–sand flow is satisfied at a height of approximately 0.15 mm. The electric parameters of a wind–sand flow, which can provide for compensation of the force of gravity by the electric force, were estimated. In particular, if the specific charge of a sand grain is 100 μC/kg, the force of gravity applied to the sand grain can be compensated by the electric force if the vertical component of the electric field in a wind–sand flow reaches approximately 100 kV/m. It was shown that the quasi-horizontal transport of sand grains in the lower millimeter saltation layer observed in the desertified territory can be explained by the joint action of the aerodynamic drag, the force of gravity, the Saffman force, the lift force, and the electric force.     

Temporal and Spatial Dynamics of Diel-Cycling Hypoxia in Estuarine Tributaries

The distribution and intensity of hypoxia (low dissolved oxygen) in estuaries is increasing worldwide due to cultural eutrophication. This study quantifies the strength of associations between the duration of diel-cycling severe hypoxia (≤2 mg O₂ l⁻¹) in bottom water (∼15 cm above bottom) of a shallow (<2 m) coastal lagoon estuary (Delaware, USA) and abiotic environmental variables (water temperature, insolation, tide, streamflow, and wind) and predicts the duration of severe hypoxia given different combinations of these variables. The intensity and spatial extent and dynamics of diel-cycling severe hypoxia events were defined. Vertical variability in dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration during the daytime was also determined. During the summers of 2001–2005, bottom DO data were collected for periods of weeks to months at multiple sites using automated sondes. Multiple linear regression (MLR) and regression tree analysis (RTA) were used to determine the relative importance of the environmental variables in predicting the number of hours of severe hypoxia per day. Key findings of the study were that severe hypoxia events of minutes to hours in duration occurred frequently in all four tributaries sampled, primarily between 0200 and 1000 hours. Severe hypoxia duration and diel-cycling amplitudes of DO concentration increased in the up-tributary direction. Hierarchically, the duration of severe hypoxia was influenced mostly by the mean daily water temperature, then by preceding days’ total insolation, percentage of morning hours (02:00 to 10:00 a.m.) ebb tide, and daily streamflow. Collectively, the variables examined by the MLR and the RTA approaches accounted for 62% and 65% of the variability in the duration of severe hypoxia, respectively. RTA demonstrated that daily mean water temperature above 26.3°C and previous day’s total insolation below 13.6 kW m⁻² were associated with the longest lasting severe hypoxic events (9.56 h). The environmental variables and combinations of conditions that modulate or augment diel-cycling hypoxia presented in this paper enhance understanding of this widespread and growing phenomenon and provide additional insight regarding the extent to which it can impact food webs in very shallow estuarine waters that often serve as nursery habitat.     

Relation between temperature changes of the mid-upper troposphere over Eurasian mid-high latitudes and solar irradiance in the twentieth century

The δ¹⁸O data obtained from an 18.7 m ice core drilled in Chongce Ice Cap at an elevation of 6,530 m a.s.l. in the West Kunlun Mountains on the northern Tibetan Plateau show a strong correlation with the summer temperature of the middle to upper troposphere over the mid-high latitudes of Eurasia. Based on this, the δ¹⁸O record can be used as a proxy of the June–September mean temperature of the mid-upper troposphere (MUT) from 1903 to 1992. The time span of the ice core record is much longer than the meteorological data available only after 1948. Using the empirical mode decomposition method (EMD), the δ¹⁸O record is decomposed into various frequency components and compared with the solar irradiance variations of the same period. The results show that (1) The June–September mean temperature of the MUT over Eurasian mid-high latitudes is completely decomposed into four IMF (intrinsic mode function) components and an increasing trend. (2) Solar irradiance is decomposed into the Schwabe cycle, the Hale cycle, the Gleissberg cycle, and an increasing trend. (3) The correlation coefficients between the June and September mean temperatures of the MUT over Eurasian mid-high latitudes and solar irradiance on the longer timescales (at least more than 11-year) show the significant correlations; their phase changes are basically identical in general, and (4) the 11-year Schwabe cycle exists in the June–September mean temperature of the MUT over Eurasian mid-high latitudes during most of the time from 1903 to 1992, and only in the two high-temperature phases (1929–1944 and from 1975 to the present) may global warming disturb this relation. A full understanding of this phenomenon would shed insight into the potential consequence of global warming on the MUT.     

Post-Aswan dam sedimentation rate of lagoons of the Nile Delta,Egypt

This study uses radiometric analysis (²¹⁰Pb and ¹³⁷Cs) of short sediment cores with high-resolution sampling (1-cm interval) to trace sedimentation rates in the Nile Delta lagoons, particularly since completion of the Aswan High Dam in 1964. A declining trend in ²¹⁰Pb_ex as calculated by the CIC model is clearly identified in about 10 cm of the upper-core sediments from the lagoons of Manzala and Edku, accompanied by two spikes of ¹³⁷Cs in cores from the lagoons of Burullus and Edku. These findings illustrate average post-dam sedimentation rates ranging from 0.22 to 0.27 cm a⁻¹ in the lagoons, in contrast with those found previously based on low-resolution sampling. The lower sedimentation rates in the lagoons are a consequence of a dramatic reduction in riverine sediment load to the coastal area as a result of the damming. Although widespread erosion occurs along the open estuarine coast, the lagoon setting remains calmer than before due to coastal diking and freshwater regulation in the delta plain in the past decades. This provides the possibility of continuously preserved radiometric records in the less-bioturbated lagoon sediments. Dating individual layers using the CRS model has revealed increasing sedimentation rates in Manzala and Burullus since the 1980s, which can largely be explained as a consequence of the reduction in lagoon area due to intensifying reclamation. The post-dam sedimentation in the shrinking lagoons may have some adverse ecological consequences due to finer sediment’s affinity with pollutants. These findings would shed light on the environmental conservation and socioeconomic development in the Nile Delta region.     

Analysis of the August 7, 1972 white light flare: Light curves and correlation with hard X-rays

Cinematic, photometric observations of the 3B flare of August 7, 1972 are described in detail. The time resolution was 2 s; the spatial resolution was 1–2″. Flare continuum emissivity at 4950 Å and at 5900 Å correlated closely in time with the 60–100 keV non-thermal X-ray burst intensity. The observed peak emissivity was 1.5 × 10¹⁰ erg cm^?2 s^?1 and the total flare energy in the 3900–6900 Å range was ～10³⁰ erg. From the close temporal correspondence and from the small distance (3″) separating the layers where the visible emission and the X-rays arose, it is argued that the hard X-ray source must have had the same silhouette as the white light flare and that the emission patches had cross-sections of 3–5″. There was also a correlation between the location of the most intense visible emissions near sunspots and the intensity and polarization of the 9.4 GHz radio emission. The flare appeared to show at least three distinct particle acceleration phases: one, occurring at a stationary source and associated with proton acceleration gave a very bluish continuum and reached peak intensity at ～ 1522 UT. At 1523 UT, a faint wave spread out at 40 km s^?1 from flare center. The spectrum of the wave was nearly flat in the range 4950–5900 Å. Association of the wave with a slow drift of the microwave emission peak to lower frequencies and with a softening of the X-ray spectrum is interpreted to mean that the particle acceleration process weakened while the region of acceleration expanded. The observations are interpreted with the aid of the flare models of Brown to mean that the same beam of non-thermal electrons that was responsible for the hard X-ray bremsstrahlung also caused the heating of the lower chromosphere that produced the white light flare.     

Seasonal variations of atmospheric sulfur dioxide and dimethylsulfide concentrations at Amsterdam Island in the southern Indian Ocean

Daily measurements of atmospheric sulfur dioxide (SO₂) concentrations were performed from March 1989 to January 1991 at Amsterdam Island (37°50 S–77°30 E), a remote site located in the southern Indian Ocean. Long-range transport of continental air masses was studied using Radon (²²²Rn) as continental tracer. Average monthly SO₂ concentrations range from less than 0.2 to 3.9 nmol m^-3 (annual average = 0.7 nmol m^-3) and present a seasonal cycle with a minimum in winter and a maximum in summer, similar to that described for atmospheric DMS concentrations measured during the same period. Clear diel correlation between atmospheric DMS and SO₂ concentrations is also observed during summer. A photochemical box model using measured atmospheric DMS concentrations as input data reproduces the seasonal variations in the measured atmospheric SO₂ concentrations within ±30%. Comparing between computed and measured SO₂ concentrations allowed us to estimate a yield of SO₂ from DMS oxidation of about 70%.