Assessing the hydrological and geomorphic behaviour of a landscape evolution model within a limits-of-acceptability uncertainty analysis framework

Landscape evolution models (LEMs) have the capability to characterize key aspects of geomorphological and hydrological processes. However, their usefulness is hindered by model equifinality and paucity of available calibration data. Estimating uncertainty in the parameter space and resultant model predictions is rarely achieved as this is computationally intensive and the uncertainties inherent in the observed data are large. Therefore, a limits-of-acceptability (LoA) uncertainty analysis approach was adopted in this study to assess the value of uncertain hydrological and geomorphic data. These were used to constrain simulations of catchment responses and to explore the parameter uncertainty in model predictions. We applied this approach to the River Derwent and Cocker catchments in the UK using a LEM CAESAR-Lisflood. Results show that the model was generally able to produce behavioural simulations within the uncertainty limits of the streamflow. Reliability metrics ranged from 24.4% to 41.2% and captured the high-magnitude low-frequency sediment events. Since different sets of behavioural simulations were found across different parts of the catchment, evaluating LEM performance, in quantifying and assessing both at-a-point behaviour and spatial catchment response, remains a challenge. Our results show that evaluating LEMs within uncertainty analyses framework while taking into account the varying quality of different observations constrains behavioural simulations and parameter distributions and is a step towards a full-ensemble uncertainty evaluation of such models. We believe that this approach will have benefits for reflecting uncertainties in flooding events where channel morphological changes are occurring and various diverse (and yet often sparse) data have been collected over such events.     

Advances in pan‐European flood hazard mapping

Flood hazard maps at trans‐national scale have potential for a large number of applications ranging from climate change studies, reinsurance products, aid to emergency operations for major flood crisis, among others. However, at continental scales, only few products are available, due to the difficulty of retrieving large consistent data sets. Moreover, these are produced at relatively coarse grid resolution, which limits their applications to qualitative assessments. At finer resolution, maps are often limited to country boundaries, due to limited data sharing at trans‐national level. The creation of a European flood hazard map would currently imply a collection of scattered regional maps, often lacking mutual consistency due to the variety of adopted approaches and quality of the underlying input data. In this work, we derive a pan‐European flood hazard map at 100 m resolution. The proposed approach is based on expanding a literature cascade model through a physically based approach. A combination of distributed hydrological and hydraulic models was set up for the European domain. Then, an observed meteorological data set is used to derive a long‐term streamflow simulation and subsequently coherent design flood hydrographs for a return period of 100 years along the pan‐European river network. Flood hydrographs are used to simulate areas at risk of flooding and output maps are merged into a pan‐European flood hazard map. The quality of this map is evaluated for selected areas in Germany and United Kingdom against national/regional hazard maps. Despite inherent limitations and model resolution issues, simulated maps are in good agreement with reference maps (hit rate between 59% and 78%, critical success index between 43% and 65%), suggesting strong potential for a number of applications at the European scale. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

What about reservoirs? Questioning anthropogenic and climatic interferences on water availability

Water resources in semi-arid regions like the Mediterranean Basin are highly vulnerable because of the high variability of weather systems. Additionally, climate change is altering the timing and pattern of water availability in a region where growing populations are placing extra demands on water supplies. Importantly, how reservoirs and dams have an influence on the amount of water resources available is poorly quantified. Therefore, we examine the impact of reservoirs on water resources together with the impact of climate change in a semi-arid Mediterranean catchment. We simulated the Susurluk basin (23.779-km²) using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. We generate results for with (RSV) and without reservoirs (WRSV) scenarios. We run simulations for current and future conditions using dynamically downscaled outputs of the MPI-ESM-MR general circulation model under two greenhouse gas relative concentration pathways (RCPs) in order to reveal the coupled effect of reservoir and climate impacts. Water resources were then converted to their usages – blue water (water in aquifers and rivers), green water storage (water in the soil) and green water flow (water losses by evaporation and transpiration). The results demonstrate that all water resources except green water flow are projected to decrease under all RCPs compared to the reference period, both long-term and at seasonal scales. However, while water scarcity is expected in the future, reservoir storage is shown to be adequate to overcome this problem. Nevertheless, reservoirs reduce the availability of water, particularly in soil moisture stores, which increases the potential for drought by reducing streamflow. Furthermore, reservoirs cause water losses through evaporation from their open surfaces. We conclude that pressures to protect society from economic damage by building reservoirs have a strong impact on the fluxes of watersheds. This is additional to the effect of climate change on water resources.     

Hydrogen atoms and ions in the thermosphere and exosphere

The distribution of atomic hydrogen in the thermosphere and exosphere is computed taking into account the upward flow which balances the escape flux. Because of the upward flow the number-density gradient is much steeper than it would be in a static atmosphere. Attention is drawn to the fact that the ratio of the amount of hydrogen above the 100 or 110km levels to the amount of hydrogen above the 200 or 300 km levels is a sensitive measure of the temperature of the exosphere. The evidence on the absolute abundance of atomic hydrogen is examined. It is concluded that the number density at the 120km level is probably about 5 × 10⁵/cm³. The Ly. absorption line at this level is beyond the linear part of the curve of growth.

Consideration is also given to the steady-state distributions of O⁺ and H⁺ ions. In the lower part of the exosphere the number density of O⁺ ions falls with increase in altitude (the associated scale height being twice that of the O atoms) and the number density of H⁺ ions rises at the same rate (as was first pointed out by Dungey). The altitude at which the number densities of O⁺ and H⁺ ions become equal is calculated on various assumptions regarding the temperature and hydrogen content of the exosphere. It is found to be about 1200 km when the temperature is 1250° K and the hydrogen content corresponds to the number density cited near the end of the preceding paragraph. The gradient of the predicted electrondensity distribution at several Earth radii is much less than that deduced from whistler studies.

The passage from charge transfer to diffusive equilibrium is discussed in an Appendix.     

The fusion crust of the Winchcombe meteorite: A preserved record of atmospheric entry processes

Fusion crusts form during the atmospheric entry heating of meteorites and preserve a record of the conditions that occurred during deceleration in the atmosphere. The fusion crust of the Winchcombe meteorite closely resembles that of other stony meteorites, and in particular CM2 chondrites, since it is dominated by olivine phenocrysts set in a glassy mesostasis with magnetite, and is highly vesicular. Dehydration cracks are unusually abundant in Winchcombe. Failure of this weak layer is an additional ablation mechanism to produce large numbers of particles during deceleration, consistent with the observation of pulses of plasma in videos of the Winchcombe fireball. Calving events might provide an observable phenomenon related to meteorites that are particularly susceptible to dehydration. Oscillatory zoning is observed within olivine phenocrysts in the fusion crust, in contrast to other meteorites, perhaps owing to temperature fluctuations resulting from calving events. Magnetite monolayers are found in the crust, and have also not been previously reported, and form discontinuous strata. These features grade into magnetite rims formed on the external surface of the crust and suggest the trapping of surface magnetite by collapse of melt. Magnetite monolayers may be a feature of meteorites that undergo significant degassing. Silicate warts with dendritic textures were observed and are suggested to be droplets ablated from another stone in the shower. They, therefore, represent the first evidence for intershower transfer of ablation materials and are consistent with the other evidence in the Winchcombe meteorite for unusually intense gas loss and ablation, despite its low entry velocity.     

Sr and Pb isotopic disequilibrium between coexisting plagioclase and orthopyroxene in the Bushveld Complex, South Africa: microdrilling and progressive leaching evidence for sub-liquidus contamination within a crystal mush

Progressive leaching of plagioclase for Sr isotopes and microdrilling for Sr and Pb isotopes from grains of plagioclase and orthopyroxene from the Critical Zone and the Lower Zone indicates that these minerals are not in isotopic equilibrium. Leaching suggests Critical Zone plagioclase either lost Rb or had a more radiogenic Sr_i rim relative to the core, whereas plagioclase from an Upper Zone sample is isotopically homogeneous for Sr_i. Microdrilling analyses of plagioclase from the Lower and Critical Zones consistently have a higher initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr (Sr_i) and a less radiogenic modeled ²³⁸U/²⁰⁴Pb composition (μ₂) than coexisting orthopyroxene. The range of calculated Sr_i for plagioclase and orthopyroxene is 0.70506–0.70662(34) and 0.70290–0.70654(36), respectively. The average difference in Sr_i between mineral pairs was 0.00095. The range of calculated μ₂ for plagioclase and orthopyroxene is 9.42–10.30 (average 9.7) and 9.83–15.75 (average 10.1), respectively. The range of measured ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁶Pb for plagioclase and orthopyroxene is 34.757–36.439(33) and 36.669–41.845(85), respectively. One orthopyroxenite without evidence for more than one population of crystal size distribution, nonetheless had Sr_i = 0.70654 (36) with calculated μ₂ of 10.32 for larger grains as compared with Sr_i = 0.70290 (32) and calculated μ₂ of 9.97 for smaller grain-size fractions. Isotopic results from this study demonstrate that whole-rock isotopic data may not provide the appropriate level of detail necessary to address some processes in the Bushveld Complex. However, systematic changes have the potential to elucidate the timing of contamination with regard to other processes (crystal aging, compaction-driven recrystallization, and mineral exsolution) occurring within a slowly cooled crystal–liquid–vapor mush system.     

Diel Aquatic CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> System Dynamics of a Bermudian Mangrove Environment

Mangrove ecosystems play an important, but understudied, role in the cycling of carbon in tropical and subtropical coastal ocean environments. In the present study, we examined the diel dynamics of seawater carbon dioxide (CO₂) and dissolved oxygen (DO) for a mangrove-dominated marine ecosystem (Mangrove Bay) and an adjacent intracoastal waterway (Ferry Reach) on the island of Bermuda. Spatial and temporal trends in seawater carbonate chemistry and associated variables were assessed from direct measurements of dissolved inorganic carbon, total alkalinity, dissolved oxygen (DO), temperature, and salinity. Diel pCO₂ variability was interpolated across hourly wind speed measurements to determine variability in daily CO₂ fluxes for the month of October 2007 in Bermuda. From these observations, we estimated rates of net sea to air CO₂ exchange for these two coastal ecosystems at 59.8 ± 17.3 in Mangrove Bay and 5.5 ± 1.3 mmol m⁻² d⁻¹ in Ferry Reach. These results highlight the potential for large differences in carbonate system functioning and sea-air CO₂ flux in adjacent coastal environments. In addition, observation of large diel variability in CO₂ system parameters (e.g., mean pCO₂: 390–2,841 μatm; mean pH_T: 8.05–7.34) underscores the need for careful consideration of diel cycles in long-term sampling regimes and flux estimates.     

Clues from Current High CO2 Environments on the Effects of Ocean Acidification on CaCO3 Preservation

Acidification of surface seawater owing to anthropogenic activities has raised serious concerns on its consequences for marine calcifying organisms and ecosystems. To acquire knowledge concerning the future consequences of ocean acidification (OA), researchers have relied on incubation experiments with organisms exposed to future seawater conditions, numerical models, evidence from the geological record, and recently, observations from aquatic environments exposed to naturally high CO₂ and low pH, e.g., owing to volcanic CO₂ vents, upwelling, and groundwater input. In the present study, we briefly evaluate the distribution of dissolved CO₂–carbonic acid parameters at (1) two locations in the Pacific and the Atlantic Ocean as a function of depth, (2) a mangrove environment in Bermuda, (3) a seasonally stratified body of water in a semi-enclosed sound in Bermuda, and (4) in temporarily isolated tide pools in Southern California. We demonstrate that current in situ conditions of seawater pCO₂, pH, and CaCO₃ saturation state (Ω) in these environments are similar or even exceed the anticipated changes to these parameters in the open ocean over the next century as a result of OA. The observed differences between the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans with respect to seawater CO₂–carbonic acid chemistry, preservation of CaCO₃ minerals, and the occurrence and distribution of deep-sea marine calcifiers, support the hypothesized negative effects of OA on the production and preservation of CaCO₃ in surface seawater. Clues provided from shallow near-shore environments in Bermuda and Southern California support these predictions, but also highlight that many marine calcifiers already experience relatively high seawater pCO₂ and low pH conditions.     

Twentieth century North Atlantic climate change. Part II: Understanding the effect of Indian Ocean warming

Ensembles of atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) experiments are used in an effort to understand the boreal winter Northern Hemisphere (NH) extratropical climate response to the observed warming of tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the last half of the twentieth Century. Specifically, we inquire about the origins of unusual, if not unprecedented, changes in the wintertime North Atlantic and European climate that are well described by a linear trend in most indices of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The simulated NH atmospheric response to the linear trend component of tropic-wide SST change since 1950 projects strongly onto the positive polarity of the NAO and is a hemispheric pattern distinguished by decreased (increased) Arctic (middle latitude) sea level pressure. Progressive warming of the Indian Ocean is the principal contributor to this wintertime extratropical response, as shown through additional AGCM ensembles forced with only the SST trend in that sector. The Indian Ocean influence is further established through the reproducibility of results across three different models forced with identical, idealized patterns of the observed warming. Examination of the transient atmospheric adjustment to a sudden “switch-on” of an Indian Ocean SST anomaly reveals that the North Atlantic response is not consistent with linear theory and most likely involves synoptic eddy feedbacks associated with changes in the North Atlantic storm track. The tropical SST control exerted over twentieth century regional climate underlies the importance of determining the future course of tropical SST for regional climate change and its uncertainty. Better understanding of the extratropical responses to different, plausible trajectories of the tropical oceans is key to such efforts.     

Ecosystem response to antibiotics entering the aquatic environment

Awareness of antibiotics in wastewaters and aquatic ecosystems is growing as investigations into alternate pollutants increase and analytical techniques for detecting these chemicals improve. The presence of three antibiotics (ciprofloxacin, norfloxacin and cephalexin) was evaluated in both sewage effluent and environmental waters downstream from a sewage discharge. Bacteria cultured from the sewage bioreactor and receiving waters were tested for resistance against six antibiotics (ciprofloxacin, tetracycline, ampicillin, trimethoprim, erythromycin and trimethoprim/sulphamethoxazole) and effects of short term exposure (24 h) to antibiotics on bacterial denitrification rates were examined. Antibiotics were detected entering the sewage treatment plant with varying levels of removal during the treatment process. Antibiotics were also detected in effluent entering receiving waters and detectable 500 m from the source. Among the bacteria cultured from the sewage bioreactor, resistance was displayed against all six antibiotics tested and bacteria cultured from receiving waters were resistant against two of the antibiotics tested. Rates of denitrification were observed to decrease in response to some antibiotics and not to others, though this was only observed at concentrations exceeding those likely to be found in the environment. Findings from this preliminary research have indicated that antibiotics are entering our aquatic systems and pose a potential threat to ecosystem function and potentially human health.