Parameter and rating curve uncertainty propagation analysis of the SWAT model for two small Mediterranean catchments

Abstract

The SWAT model was tested to simulate the streamflow of two small Mediterranean catchments (the Vène and the Pallas) in southern France. Model calibration and prediction uncertainty were assessed simultaneously by using three different techniques (SUFI-2, GLUE and ParaSol). Initially, a sensitivity analysis was conducted using the LH-OAT method. Subsequent sensitive parameter calibration and SWAT prediction uncertainty were analysed by considering, firstly, deterministic discharge data (assuming no uncertainty in discharge data) and secondly, uncertainty in discharge data through the development of a methodology that accounts explicitly for error in the rating curve (the stage?discharge relationship). To efficiently compare the different uncertainty methods and the effect of the uncertainty of the rating curve on model prediction uncertainty, common criteria were set for the likelihood function, the threshold value and the number of simulations. The results show that model prediction uncertainty is not only case-study specific, but also depends on the selected uncertainty analysis technique. It was also found that the 95% model prediction uncertainty interval is wider and more successful at encompassing the observations when uncertainty in the discharge data is considered explicitly. The latter source of uncertainty adds additional uncertainty to the total model prediction uncertainty.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor D. Gerten

Citation Sellami, H., La Jeunesse, I., Benabdallah, S., and Vanclooster, M., 2013. Parameter and rating curve uncertainty propagation analysis of the SWAT model for two small Mediterranean watersheds. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (8), 1635?1657.     

摩擦作用对西南低涡扰动的影响

西南低涡是对流层下层的中尺度扰动。本文在零级近似条件下,采用p坐标系的基本方程组,在边界层内设计两层模式。通过一定的简化方程组后,得到:当Z≤1/2[kL~2/(μ~2Knu~*)] 时,摩擦效应具有二重性,一方面使扰动减弱;另一方面使扰动增强,而前者的影响略大于后者,最终使扰动消失。频率随高度Z的降低而增加。当Z>1/2[kL~2/(μ~2Knμ~*)]时,摩擦作用甚微,几乎可以忽略不计。频率虽然有两个值,但随高度Z的增加,他们趋于一个常值。     

Consequences of transducer inductance for seismograph calibration

Summary The magnification achieved with the standard sine-wave method using seismometers with the calibration and signal coils tightly wound on the same coil former can be erroneous at high frequencies due to the mutual inductance between both coils. An attempt was made to eliminate this influence from the calibration data. The application of theoretical equations was tested with a short-period digital seismograph.

---

ma¶rt;ama auau aa nu ¶rt;uu ¶rt;uu maauu m m m a u amma ua u a au u¶rt;mumu ¶rt; ua u auau am, u u a¶rt;m n¶rt;m umu. a ¶rt;aa nnma muam auau ¶rt;a. uu mmuu au u¶rt;a nu auauu mnu¶rt;u aa u anu.

     

Paleogeothermal gradient in the boskovice furrow

Summary A coalification data set from the first seam of the Rosice-Oslavany coal district in the Boskovice furrow was used to estimate the temperature gradient prevailing within the furrow during Autunian sedimentation. An appreciable scatter of the data reflects the complicated history of the sedimentary region. The northern part of the district displays a higher degree of coalification. The results of the evaluation suggest that the region ceased to subside in the upper Autunian, and that the extent of the post-Autunian erosion does not exceed 500 metres. This version of the burial history, which is consistent with geological data, yields a temperature paleogradient of 76 mK/m for the northern part and of 72 mK/m for the southern part of the district. The gradients estimated are higher than those prevailing during the Carboniferous sedimentation in the Central Bohemian Basin (45 – 53 mK/m), lower than values found for the Ostrava Formation in the Upper Silesian Basin during its Namurian A sedimentation (about 95 mK/m), but comparable with values evaluated for the Karviná Formation of the same basin deposited during the Namurian B - C and Westphalian A (60 – 77 mK/m).Dedicated to the Memory of Professor Karel P     

Anhydrite-bearing rocks from the Rožná district (Moldanubian zone,Czech Republic): high-grade metamorphosed exhalites?

Several types of anhydrite-bearing rocks have been found in the amphibolite-facies metamorphosed rocks at the north-eastern margin of the Moldanubian Zone. Anhydrite either forms monomineralic bands up to 40 cm thick, or occurs in the form of disseminated grains in surrounding calc-silicate gneiss together with feldspar, scapolite, amphibole, pyroxene, epidote and pyrite. The isotopic composition of sulphur ('³⁴S=30.6 to 32.3‰) and strontium (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr=0.70797 to 0.70781) in anhydrite may indicate a marine source of sulphate. The isotopic ratio of strontium is in the same range as that of metamorphosed strata-bound barite-sulphide ores, which have been previously described in the same area. The '³⁴S values of coexisting pyrite range from 21.4 to 22.5‰, the (³⁴S_{anhydrite-pyrite} corresponding to the metamorphic temperature of 600 to 660 °C. In contrast to many submarine-exhalative deposits, the oxygen isotopic compositions of anhydrite ('¹⁸O=9.3 to 10.2‰) are lighter than that of barite ('¹⁸O=10.4 to 13.8‰). This indicates that the both minerals are not in isotopic equilibrium. Therefore, it is probable that anhydrite and barite from the Ro—ná district were deposited from fluids that contained different proportions of seawater and hydrothermal fluids or from hydrothermal fluids that underwent variable extent of oxygen isotope exchange with seafloor rocks. The '¹³C values in calcite ('¹³C=-17.2 to -18.7‰) from anhydrite-bearing rock are lower than those in distant marbles. As graphite is absent in anhydrite- and calcite-bearing rocks, impoverishment in the ¹³C isotope cannot be attributed to the graphite-carbonate isotopic exchange during metamorphism. It is proposed that low '¹³C values in carbonates are caused by pre-metamorphic oxidation of organic matter in course of hydrothermal processes. Anhydrite and anhydrite-bearing calc-silicate gneiss from the north-eastern part of the Moldanubian Zone are interpreted to be the high-grade metamorphosed analogue of anhydrite-rich exhalites commonly found in submarine-exhalative hydrothermal deposits.     

Trophic modeling of the Northern Humboldt Current Ecosystem, Part II: Elucidating ecosystem dynamics from 1995 to 2004 with a focus on the impact of ENSO

The Northern Humboldt Current Ecosystem is one of the most productive in the world in terms of fish production. Its location near to the equator permits strong upwelling under relatively low winds, thus creating optimal conditions for the development of plankton communities. These communities ultimately support abundant populations of grazing fish such as the Peruvian anchoveta, Engraulis ringens. The ecosystem is also subject to strong inter-annual environmental variability associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which has major effects on nutrient structure, primary production, and higher trophic levels. Here our objective is to model the contributions of several external drivers (i.e. reconstructed phytoplankton changes, fish immigration, and fishing rate) and internal control mechanisms (i.e. predator-prey) to ecosystem dynamics over an ENSO cycle. Steady-state models and time-series data from the Instituto del Mar del Perú (IMARPE) from 1995 to 2004 provide the base data for simulations conducted with the program Ecopath with Ecosim. In simulations all three external drivers contribute to ecosystem dynamics. Changes in phytoplankton quantity and composition (i.e. contribution of diatoms and dino- and silicoflagellates), as affected by upwelling intensity, were important in dynamics of the El Niño of 1997–98 and the subsequent 3 years. The expansion and immigration of mesopelagic fish populations during El Niño was important for dynamics in following years. Fishing rate changes were the most important of the three external drivers tested, helping to explain observed dynamics throughout the modeled period, and particularly during the post-El Niño period. Internal control settings show a mix of predator–prey control settings; however a “wasp-waist” control of the ecosystem by small pelagic fish is not supported.     

Electrical conductivity of some rocks from the Indian subcontinent

Summary Results on electrical conductivity, chemical analysis and age of the rock samples from the Indian Subcontinent are presented. The old Precambrian Indian rocks tend to be less conductive than characteristic rocks of crustal and upper mantle structures.

---

nuam mam uu mnm¶rt;mu, uu aaua u n¶rt;u u uu n¶rt; u ¶rt;uu. ma nauu n¶rt; u ¶rt;uu naam mn¶rt;m aamumuu n¶rt; u amuu.

     

Biogeochemical characterization of a Mediterranean shallow lake using stable isotopes: Laguna del Cristo (NW Iberian Peninsula)

The present multi-isotopic study (δ¹⁸O–δD_water, δ³⁴S–δ¹⁸O_{dissolved-sulphate}, δ¹³C_{dissolved-inorganic-carbon}, δ¹³C–δ¹⁸O_{shells-modern-gastropods}, δ¹³C_plants, and δ¹³C_{sedimentary-organic-matter}) is aimed at assessing the hydrogeochemical changes and biogeochemical dynamics in a Mediterranean shallow lake fed by a Quaternary–Tertiary aquifer, the “Laguna del Cristo” (NW Iberian Peninsula), a system sensitive to climate fluctuations, between 2010 and 2011. Lake water is of the bicarbonate type, and there are no major pollutants. δ¹⁸O-δD_water values plot on a local evaporation line (δD=5.29δ¹⁸O–12.29) indicating that evaporative enrichment had a significant impact on lake water isotopic features. Periods of high water levels are characterized by lower δ³⁴S–δ¹⁸O_{dissolved-sulphate} and δ¹³C_{dissolved-inorganic-carbon} values and suggest sulphate derived from weathering of sulphides in the catchment area, delivered to the lake by surface run-off or via groundwater, and in situ decay of organic matter. During lower water levels, sulphate reduction and enhanced primary productivity lead to higher δ³⁴S_{dissolved-sulphate} and δ¹³C_{dissolved-inorganic-carbon} values. Evaporation induced enrichment in ¹⁸O_sulphate, ¹³C_{dissolved-inorganic-carbon} and ¹³C–¹⁸O_{shells-Galba-Gyraulus}. δ¹³C_plant confirms the C3 photosynthetic pathway. Enrichment in ¹³C submerged aquatic plants indicates that HCO₃^? is the main carbon source, except for ¹³C-depleted Potamogeton. The TOC, δ¹³C_org values, and TC/TN ratios in sediments all confirm the autochthonous character of organic matter contribution. This study provides a baseline for isotopic research into shallow, flow-through lakes fed by siliciclastic aquifers, and stresses the importance of evaporation and refilling (direct precipitation and groundwater discharge) in controlling the solute chemistry and stable isotopic composition in temperate regions with contrasting seasonal climates. The results also provide a snapshot of modern lake isotope variability that can be applied to paleoenvironmental reconstructions.     

Application of sugar foam to red soils in a semiarid Mediterranean environment

The study described here involved evaluating the effects that the application of one by-product (sugar foam waste) has upon red soils in the region of La Mancha (Central Spain). In view of the fact that this is a location where this type of soil abounds, this technique has been a common practice for many years. The principal goal was to investigate the impact of this approach on some of the soil properties and, secondly, on its level of fertility. As a result, this represents an investigation into the effects that this type of waste has on some soil quality parameters. The results showed that, after the addition of by-products over 25 years, sugar foam waste is of agricultural interest mainly due to the increase in organic matter concentration (about 2%) and, to a lesser extent, by increases in calcium carbonate (more than 30%) and P (four times more). The soil pH was also found to increase slightly (1.4), while the electrical conductivity almost did not change. The properties associated with these pedological qualities therefore had a positive effect by improving nutrient availability. As a result, foams arising from sugar industries have a positive effect on soil quality and the application of such foams to soils is beneficial since the need to dispose this residue is also removed.