Using geographically weighted regression to explore the spatially heterogeneous spread of bovine tuberculosis in England and Wales

An understanding of the factors that affect the spread of endemic bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is critical for the development of measures to stop and reverse this spread. Analyses of spatial data need to account for the inherent spatial heterogeneity within the data, or else spatial autocorrelation can lead to an overestimate of the significance of variables. This study used three methods of analysis—least-squares linear regression with a spatial autocorrelation term, geographically weighted regression (GWR) and boosted regression tree (BRT) analysis—to identify the factors that influence the spread of endemic bTB at a local level in England and Wales. The linear regression and GWR methods demonstrated the importance of accounting for spatial differences in risk factors for bTB, and showed some consistency in the identification of certain factors related to flooding, disease history and the presence of multiple genotypes of bTB. This is the first attempt to explore the factors associated with the spread of endemic bTB in England and Wales using GWR. This technique improves on least-squares linear regression approaches by identifying regional differences in the factors associated with bTB spread. However, interpretation of these complex regional differences is difficult and the approach does not lend itself to predictive models which are likely to be of more value to policy makers. Methods such as BRT may be more suited to such a task. Here we have demonstrated that GWR and BRT can produce comparable outputs.     

Quantifying local flow direction uncertainty

Absolute elevation error in digital elevation models (DEMs) can be within acceptable National Map Accuracy standards, but still have dramatic impacts on field-level estimates of surface water flow direction, particularly in level regions. We introduce and evaluate a new method for quantifying uncertainty in flow direction rasters derived from DEMs. The method utilizes flow direction values derived from finer resolution digital elevation data to estimate uncertainty, on a cell-by-cell basis, in flow directions derived from coarser digital elevation data. The result is a quantification and spatial distribution of flow direction uncertainty at both local and regional scales. We present an implementation of the method using a 10-m DEM and a reference 1-m lidar DEM. The method contributes to scientific understanding of DEM uncertainty propagation and modeling and can inform hydrological analyses in engineering, agriculture, and other disciplines that rely on simulations of surface water flow.     

Crystallisation sequence and magma evolution of the De Beers dyke (Kimberley,South Africa)

We present petrographic and mineral chemical data for a suite of samples derived from the De Beers dyke, a contemporaneous, composite intrusion bordering the De Beers pipe (Kimberley, South Africa). Petrographic features and mineral compositions indicate the following stages in the evolution of this dyke: (1) production of antecrystic material by kimberlite-related metasomatism in the mantle (i.e., high Cr-Ti phlogopite); (2) entrainment of wall-rock material during ascent through the lithospheric mantle, including antecrysts; (3) early magmatic crystallisation of olivine (internal zones and subsequently rims), Cr-rich spinel, rutile, and magnesian ilmenite, probably on ascent to the surface; and (4) crystallisation of groundmass phases (i.e., olivine rinds, Fe-Ti-rich spinels, perovskite, apatite, monticellite, calcite micro-phenocrysts, kinoshitalite-phlogopite, barite, and baddeleyite) and the mesostasis (calcite, dolomite, and serpentine) on emplacement in the upper crust. Groundmass and mesostasis crystallisation likely forms a continuous sequence with deuteric/hydrothermal modification. The petrographic features, mineralogy, and mineral compositions of different units within the De Beers dyke are indistinguishable from one another, indicating a common petrogenesis. The compositions of antecrysts (i.e., high Cr-Ti phlogopite) and magmatic phases (e.g., olivine rims, magnesian ilmenite, and spinel) overlap those from the root zone intrusions of the main Kimberley pipes (i.e., Wesselton, De Beers, Bultfontein). However, the composition of these magmatic phases is distinct from those in ‘evolved’ intrusions of the Kimberley cluster (e.g., Benfontein, Wesselton water tunnel sills). Although the effects of syn-emplacement flow processes are evident (e.g., alignment of phases parallel to contacts), there is no evidence that the De Beers dyke has undergone significant pre-emplacement crystal fractionation (e.g., olivine, spinel, ilmenite). This study demonstrates the requirement for detailed petrographic and mineral chemical studies to assess whether individual intrusions are in fact ‘evolved’; and that dykes are not necessarily produced by differentiated magmas.

     

Thermal maturation, potential source rocks and hydrocarbon generation in Mesozoic rocks, Lougheed Island area, Central Canadian Arctic archipelago

Significant oil and gas accumulations occur in and around Lougheed Island, Arctic Canada, where hydrocarbon prospectivity is controlled by potential source rock distribution and composition. The Middle to Upper Triassic rocks of the Schei Point Group (e.g. Murray Harbour and Hoyle Bay formations) contain a mixture of Types I and II organic matter (Tasmanales marine algae, amorphous fluorescing bituminite). These source rocks are within the oil generation zone and have HI values up to 600 mg HC/g Corg. The younger source rocks of the Lower Jurassic Jameson Bay and the Upper Jurassic Ringnes formations contain mainly gas-prone Type II/III organic matter and are marginally mature. Vitrinite reflectance profiles suggest an effective geothermal gradient essentially similar to the present-day gradient (20 to 30°C/km). Maturation gradients are low, ranging from 0.125 to 0.185 log%Ro/km. Increases in subsidence rate in the Early Cretaceous suggest that the actual heat flow history was variable and has probably diminished from that time. The high deposition rates of the Christopher Formation shales coincide with the main phase of rifting in Aptian-Albian times. Uplift and increased sediment supply in the Maastrichtian resulted in a new sedimentary and tectonic regime, which culminated in the final phase of the Eurekan Orogeny. Burial history models indicate that hydrocarbon generation in the Schei Point Group took place during rifting in Early Cretaceous, long before any Eurekan deformation.     

Faecal indicators and pathogens in selected New Zealand waterfowl

Freshly excreted droppings from Canada geese (n=80), black swans (n=80), ducks (n=80) and gulls (n=80) were collected from sites around New Zealand. The droppings were enumerated for Escherichia coli, enterococci and Salmonella spp., and for the presence/absence of Cryptosporidium spp. Overall prevalence of E. coli and enterococci in samples was 95% and 94%, respectively. Cryptosporidium spp. was detected in 2% of the samples, whereas no Salmonella spp. were detected in the survey. Preliminary estimates of daily microbial outputs suggest that ducks will produce the highest loadings of E. coli and enterococci per bird, whereas Canada geese will produce the highest loadings of Campylobacter spp. per bird. This study provides the first set of indicator and pathogen counts for one of the largest sources of diffuse faecal contamination of natural waters in New Zealand.     

东准噶尔滴西地区石炭系火成岩岩相特征及分布预测

含油气火成岩储层的研究为石油勘探开拓了更广阔的前景。东准噶尔滴西地区石炭系火成岩气藏是克拉美丽气田的主体部分,位于陆梁隆起东南部的滴南凸起西端。根据钻井取心、薄片观察及成像测井数据,对滴西地区石炭系的火成岩岩性进行了识别和类型划分; 结合测井、地震等资料,在单井相划分的基础上,以井震结合为方法,建立了不同岩相的地震相模式,并对其不同特征进行了分析; 通过建立地质-地震对应关系,运用时间切片、波形分类等地震属性分析技术对研究区岩相分布进行了预测。研究结果表明滴西地区火成岩发育火山通道相、爆发相、溢流相、火山沉积相和侵入相五种岩相; 研究区火山岩岩相分区性明显,整体呈现西北部以中-基性溢流相为主,中部以爆发相和火山沉积相为主、东南部以中-酸性溢流相为主的分布特点,滴西18井区为独立的侵入岩体,为浅成侵入相。     

4D seismic for oil-rim monitoring

In the central North Sea ‘Gannet‐A’ field, a 50 ft oil rim is overlain by a gas cap of variable thickness. Oil is produced from horizontal wells which initially produced dry oil, but as the field became more mature, a significant water cut was seen in several wells. A dedicated 4D seismic monitor survey was acquired in order to assess the remaining distribution of oil reserves. By forward modelling the synthetic seismic response to parameters such as contact movement and residual saturations (using 2D and 3D wedge models), and comparing the results with real seismic data, we are able to decipher the contact movements across the field. It is shown that, in one part of the field, the increased water cut is caused primarily by the vertical displacement of the entire oil rim into the initial gas cap. This oil‐rim displacement produces a very different 4D seismic response from the case of a static gas–oil contact and rising oil–water contact (normal production). As a result of these observations, we are able to optimize field production by both re‐perforation of existing wells and by drilling sidetracks into the displaced rim: a brown‐field development opportunity that might otherwise be missed.     

Seasonal variation of gold and arsenic in biogeochemical samples from a disseminated gold deposit in the Northern Cordillera

An orientation survey was conducted over the Quartz Mountain, Oregon, hot-spring type disseminated gold deposit to address three questions critical to successful exploration of the area: What is the relationship between bedrock geology and the trace-element content of trees and soils; do these relationships change seasonally; are these relationships similar in the two tree species which discontinuously blanket the area?Twig, needle and wood samples were collected four times during the year from both ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) and white fir (Abies concolor). Soils were collected once. All samples were analyzed for Au and As and the wood samples were analyzed also for Sb.Arsenic was the best pathfinder element, having little analytical, spatial, or seasonal variation in the twig and needle samples. Anomalous levels were 150 μg/g (ppm) As in pine and 30 μg/g in fir. Gold showed analytical variation of 20–30%, sample duplicate variation up to 90%, spatial changes, and seasonal variation ranging from winter-summer background [10–20 ng/g (ppb) Au] to anomalies of 300–400 ng/g (ppb) Au in pine and 100 μg/g (ppb) Au in fir in the spring and fall. Antimony could not be completely evaluated as a pathfinder element because it was only determined in wood samples.Needles and twigs from both species proved to be viable sample media for exploration of the area. Wood was not a suitable medium because of low, erratic values, perhaps due in part to analytical technique. Needles had 2 to 20 times higher As concentrations than did twigs. Twigs had a slightly higher Au content [25 ng/g (ppb)] than did needles. The pine samples were higher in both elements than were the fir samples. The data, normalized by species, could be treated as one homogeneous data base.The soil Au and As data outlined the mineralization clearly with a central Au anomaly [100 ng/g (ppb) and greater] surrounded by As anomalies [100 μg/g (ppm) and greater] over a distance of 594 m. Neither spring nor fall tree Au anomalies were coincident with the soil Au anomaly. Consistent throughout the year, tree As anomalies coincided with the soil As anomalies, but covered a smaller area. Both the Au and As anomalies in trees appeared to be related to bedrock contact zones rather than to the soil the trees were growing in.     

Integrated mapping of groundwater drought risk in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region

Groundwater drought denotes the condition and hazard during a prolonged meteorological drought when groundwater resources decline and become unavailable or inaccessible for human use. Groundwater drought risk refers to the combined physical risk and human vulnerability associated with diminished groundwater availability and access during drought. An integrated management support tool, GRiMMS, is presented, for the mapping and assessment of relative groundwater drought risk in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region. Based on composite mapping analysis of region-wide gridded relative indices of meteorological drought risk, hydrogeological drought proneness and human groundwater drought vulnerability, the mapping results highlight consistent areas across the region with highest groundwater drought risk and populations in the order of 39 million at risk of groundwater drought at present. Projective climate-model results suggest a potentially significant negative impact of climate change on groundwater drought risk. The tool provides a means for further attention to the key, but neglected, role of groundwater in drought management in Africa.     

Palaeolithic archaeology of the Bytham River: human occupation of Britain during the early Middle Pleistocene and its European context

The Early and early Middle Pleistocene archaeological record in Britain from c. 900 to 500 ka marks a critical shift in human occupation of northwest Europe, from occasional pioneer populations with simple core and flake technology to more widespread occupation associated with the appearance of Acheulean technology. Key to understanding this record are the fluvial deposits of the extinct Bytham River in central East Anglia, where a series of Lower Palaeolithic sites lie on a 15 km stretch of the former river. In this paper we present the results of new fieldwork and a reanalysis of historical artefact collections of handaxes and scrapers to: 1) establish the chronostratigraphic context of the Bytham archaeological record; 2) examine variability in lithic artefact typology and technology through time; and 3) explore the implications for understanding variation in lithic technology in the European record. Six phases of occupation of Britain are identified from at least marine isotope stage (MIS) 21 to MIS 13, with the last three phases characterised by distinctive lithic technology. We argue that this relates to the discontinuous occupation of Britain, where each phase represents the arrival of new groups derived from different European populations with distinctive material culture.