基于BGM的暴雨集合预报初始扰动发展分析

基于增长模繁殖法（BGM）思想,采用AREM（新一代区域η坐标模式）,研究了暴雨过程中,初始随机扰动在繁殖循环中随时间的演变特征和发展机理。结果表明,初始扰动的演变决定于环流背景场的结构和大气中的湿物理过程。背景场不仅影响扰动的演变规律,而且决定了扰动发展的敏感区域。初始扰动随时间演变存在两个敏感区,一是背景场的大风速区,二是降水区附近。对流层高层,大风速区附近扰动得到最优发展;对流层中低层,扰动不仅沿大风速区发展,且与降水区配合较好。初始扰动发展的机理也有两种,一是大气湿物理过程引起的位势不稳定或第二类条件不稳定（CISK）;二是由风切变引起的大气动力不稳定。高层扰动的增长,以干大气的动力不稳定占优,中低层扰动的发展主要是湿物理过程的贡献,初始扰动在模式中的发展与降水的发展是同“源”的,有利于降水发展的环境也有利于初始扰动的发展,从而影响了降水的可预报性。所以利用暴雨预报模式制作集合预报时,BGM仍是可用的方法。     

去除EOS/MODIS 1B数据中"弯弓"效应的方法

分析了中分辨率成像光谱仪EOS／MODIS的扫描方式,在此基础上研究了EOS／MODIS1B数据集“弯弓”效应的成因。对EOS／MODIS1B数据02级产品HDF文件的格式进行了探讨,并以250m分辨率资料为例,在2002年7月13日10时的MODIS资料中选取鄱阳湖以北部分地区,读取其数据进行插值、Lambert投影、重采样等处理,从而消除了影响资料使用的“弯弓”效应,同时也完成了对EOS／MODIS数据的几何校正,取得了一定的效果,为EOS／MODIS遥感资料在今后得以广泛应用作了有益的尝试。     

The Representativeness of Air Quality Monitoring Sites in the Urban Areas of a Mountainous City

Lanzhou is a typical mountainous city with severe air pollution in northwestern China. This study uses hourly observational data of air pollutants at five air quality monitoring sites in Lanzhou from July to December 2015 to discuss data quality control and the representativeness of the monitoring sites(four urban sites and one suburban site). A fuzzy matrix is applied to study primary air pollutants. The results show that of the six routinely monitored pollutants,the primary pollutant is PM_10 during the study period. Based on lag correlation analysis and one-way analysis of variance, it is concluded that there are redundant observations at the four urban sites for the timely diffusion and transport of air pollutants from the same general area. The coefficient of divergence(COD) method is then used to evaluate the spatial distribution differences, and the primary air pollutant PM_10 shows differences at each site. COD can be used as a positive indicator to describe site representativeness. To evaluate the overall air pollution in the valley, correlation analysis is performed between the PM_10 concentration retrieved from aerosol optical depth satellite data and the concentration from the four urban monitoring sites. Among these, the correlation between the workers' hospital site data and the retrieval data is the highest, passing the 90% confidence level. A new representative evaluation model for air quality monitoring sites, R_s = 0.77 COD + 0.23R_(retrieval), is established by using COD and correlation coefficients between routine observations and satellite retrieval products. From this model, it can be concluded that the biological products institute site in Lanzhou is the most representative site for the evaluation of air pollution out of the four urban air quality monitoring sites from July to December 2015.     

Uncertainty analysis of CO_2 flux components in subtropical evergreen coniferous plantation

We present an uncertainty analysis of ecological process parameters and CO2 flux components (Reco, NEE and gross ecosystem exchange (GEE)) derived from 3 years’ continuous eddy covariance meas-urements of CO2 fluxes at subtropical evergreen coniferous plantation, Qianyanzhou of ChinaFlux. Daily-differencing approach was used to analyze the random error of CO2 fluxes measurements and bootstrapping method was used to quantify the uncertainties of three CO2 flux components. In addition, we evaluated different ...     

老挝龙湖钾盐矿床沉积碳酸盐碳、氧同位素组成及其对成钾环境的初步指示

碳、氧同位素作为反映古沉积环境、成矿物源和水–岩反应等良好的稳定同位素指标,被广泛应用。通过对老挝龙湖钾盐矿区ZK309、ZK301、ZK311和ZK004四个钻孔农波组盐岩上覆泥岩碳、氧同位素组成的分析,讨论了盐岩上覆泥岩沉积的碳、氧同位素组成变化特征及其指示的沉积环境。经分析,所测碳、氧同位素基本代表了碳酸盐碳、氧同位素组成,初步推测这些碳酸盐均为当地自生,受后期改变很少,δ13C和δ18O平均值分别为-5.1‰和-4.6‰,其中δ13C值略高于一般陆相碳酸盐碳同位素最大值–5.69‰,δ18O值介于–2.71‰~–10.8‰之间,ZK309和ZK301钻孔碳、氧同位素相关系数均小于0.7,初步指示盐岩沉积之后沉积环境为陆相。δ13C值略高于–5.69‰,推测是后期盐岩层被淋滤,泥岩层受淋滤后的残余卤水影响的结果,这也解释了蒸发岩沉积层序异常(钾石盐覆盖于光卤石之上)的沉积特征。因此,在本研究中,大气水在泥岩碳、氧同位素的变化中扮演了重要角色。     

攀西地区铂族元素地球化学异常分布及其筛选

攀西地区不同时代地层的水系沉积物中铂族元素地球化学背景值具有明显的规律性分布.笔者通过对该地区铂族元素含量在各地层中的分布以及地球化学异常的圈定、归并和分类,结合有关铂族矿床地球化学特征的认识,通过对水系沉积物中Pt、Pd综合异常的筛选,在铂族元素综合衬值异常图的基础上共划分出Ⅰ类异常4个、Ⅱ类异常19个、Ⅲ类异常23个以及Ⅳ类异常14个.初步筛选出的19个Ⅱ类异常子区可为进一步开展铂族矿床找矿工作提供依据.     

西北太平洋海区年际至十年际海面变化尺度耦合与波动转型

利用多通道奇异谱分析(MSSA)等多尺度分析方法,对西北太平洋海区14个站位验潮序列的年际到十年际尺度海面波动的时空特征进行探讨.结果表明:2.5a周期和4.5a周期在振幅与相位上表现出与ENSO指数波动的尺度耦合,并存在显著的由低纬向高纬的振幅、能量递减的纬向传递特征.4.5a周期和8a周期与PDO变化同样表现出一定的尺度耦合波动,高纬各站位海面波动也表现出一定的自东向西的径向传递.在空间维上,PDO作用下的传播型波动的响应范围明显小于ENSO事件,反映了二者驱动机制的差异.该海区约在1973年和1998年左右发生过两次明显的海面波动转型,并与太平洋年代际涛动(PDO)存在一定关联.     

川西理塘第四纪盆地沉积体系、演化及古气候分析

理塘第四纪盆地以河湖相沉积为主，其形成于747ka，消亡于179～180ka。盆地内不同地点的沉积物的时空分布，揭示出古湖泊演化属于一种不连续的扩展型，在其演化过程中存在着多次的消失或萎缩时期；盆地内孢粉组合表明，其形成于一种温热湿润的气候环境，当时的海拔高度在2000m左右，以后高原气候由热变温；冰川发育加剧了古无量河的溯源侵蚀作用，最终切穿盆地，致使湖水外泄，湖泊消亡。理塘盆地的演化历程为研究青藏高原的古气候变化提供了重要证据。     

西藏冈底斯带阿索构造混杂岩南侧亚布努马花岗斑岩地球化学特征及锆石U-Pb年龄

西藏中冈底斯北部尼玛县阿索乡亚布努马地区东侧出露一处花岗斑岩岩脉,LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb测年结果显示,该花岗斑岩的形成时代为晚侏罗世(161.2±5.9Ma)。全岩地球化学数据显示其高硅、富碱、富铝的特征,属于碱性准铝质花岗斑岩;富集轻稀土元素,轻、重稀土元素分异明显,具有明显的负Eu异常,富集Rb、Pb等大离子亲石元素,亏损Ba、Sr元素及Nb、Ta、Ti、U等高场强元素,形成于岛弧环境。其源区可能为来自俯冲带增厚下地壳的深熔作用,结合区域上同时代的岩浆事件,亚布努马花岗斑岩应该形成于以班公湖-怒江洋南向俯冲为动力背景的陆缘弧环境。     

Elements and Element Components of the Rural Landscape in Linpan of Western Sichuan in Relation to Perception,Preference and Stress Recovery

Natural environments contribute to people’s perception, preference and health restoration. Many researchers have focused either on the positive effects of overall rural environments on stress recovery or concentrated on the perception and preference aspects of the rural landscape, but few have integrated perception, preference and stress recovery simultaneously. This paper developed a framework which includes 11 elements and 38 element components related to Linpan, China, and distributed it online as part of a survey. As a result, a total of 324 valid questionnaires were collected. The questionnaire included demographic details, perception and preference degree for Linpan, as well as self-estimations of stress recovery. Stepwise multiple linear regression was employed, and revealed 16 significant predictors for the perception, preference and stress recovery in rural environments. In terms of elements, atmosphere and imagery were the two elements that could be best perceived, while woodland, farmland, water, residence and road were the five most important elements for the preference. Moreover, seven elements were also identified as significant predictors for stress recovery. Among the element components, tranquility as well as road and water proximity were the two significant predictors for perception, while wide visibility as well as woodland and residence blending contributed significantly to stress recovery. The five element components of woodland interior, vegetable field, stream, courtyard space and branch road each had a significantly predictive ability for preference and stress recovery. These findings extend the understanding of the perception, preference and restorative properties of rural environments through the combination of elements and element components in Linpan of Western Sichuan, helping to improve the quality and characteristics of rural external and internal environments and create health-promoting environments.