基于旋翼无人机的大气边界层环境气象垂直观测及订正方法的研究

基于旋翼无人机开展大气边界层观测可为气象要素和大气污染物垂直结构的研究提供具有高时空解析能力的新方法,有助于深入理解低层大气物理化学变化机制。本文详述了旋翼无人机在开展大气边界层环境气象垂直观测实验的应用及优势。基于自主研发的旋翼无人机环境气象观测平台,通过开展传感器在无人机上不同的搭载位置,以及旋翼无人机与探空气球、高塔的对比观测实验,明确了旋翼无人机对气象环境观测的影响及合理的搭载方式。研究进一步在湖北重污染天气条件下开展了0—1000 m的大气边界层垂直观测,并研发了基于旋翼无人机姿态数据的大气边界层气象要素及污染物垂直观测的订正方法。结果表明:实验获取了2—10 m垂直分辨率的高质量大气廓线数据,可精细捕捉大气边界层及其逆温层高度和污染物浓度等要素的垂直变化特征。本文旨在为无人机观测的科研应用提供一种技术可行且数据可靠的观测手段。     

九寨沟M_S7.0地震的前兆异常时空演化特征及其分析

以2017年8月8日九寨沟MS7.0地震震中为中心,对震前不同震中距前兆异常的时空演化过程进行分析。研究表明,震中距100km范围内无前兆异常,前兆异常主要分布在震中距100～500km范围内。震前2年新增前兆异常开始逐渐增多;不同震中距范围内的新增异常测项所占比例在震前1.5年左右达到最大,在震前又降低。在震中距300km范围内的异常测项所占比例相对较高。前兆异常时空演化过程存在3个不同的变化阶段,即α阶段(前兆异常的早期阶段,包括α_1和α_2,震前1000天以上)的异常主要分布在震中东北方向和西南方向,异常具有向外扩展的特征;β阶段(前兆异常的中期阶段,震前500～1000天)的异常表现为大范围出现异常;γ阶段(前兆异常的短期阶段,包括γ_1和γ_2,震前500天内)的异常分布在震中的东北方向,表现为远源区的异常向震中收缩过程(γ_1)和近源区的异常向外扩展的过程(γ_2)。通过与其他震例对比分析发现,前兆异常的3个阶段现象可能是大震前的共性特征,大震前前兆异常的显著增加对发震时间的预测具有一定的指示意义。     

赣北中元古界双桥山群低变质强变形行为与格林威尔期造山作用

广泛分布于赣北地区的中元古界双桥山群，以低级区域变质作用、强烈构造变形、具陆内造山带构造变形特征；其成果系在华夏古陆与扬子古陆的碰撞拼接过程中，其应力向陆内传递的结果；时间大致在1100－800Ma，与全球格林威尔期造山作用相当。     

扬子地块西南缘晚古生代基性岩浆岩的性质与古特提斯洋的演化

扬子地块西南缘晚泥盆世至晚二叠世的基性岩浆岩具有大体类似的地球化学性质, 它们均富集Ｔｉ（ＴｉＯ２＞ ２％ ）、ＬＩＬＥ和ＬＲＥＥ（Ｌａ／Ｙｂ）Ｎ＝ ４．８～１４．６）,Ｔｉ／Ｖ（３２～６７）、Ｔｉ／Ｙ（４００～６９３）和Ｚｒ／Ｙ（３．２～７．６）比值高,具洋岛玄武岩的特征,推测它们均与地幔柱岩浆的活动有关。该地幔柱岩浆活动的时期与古特提斯洋盆演化的时期大体吻合, 但地幔柱岩浆开始喷发的中心与古特提斯初始扩张的中心相距甚远,看来,金沙江－哀牢山洋盆的张开与地幔柱岩浆活动无关。从晚泥盆世至晚二叠世,地幔柱岩浆活动的规模和强度逐渐增加,玄武岩分布中心从广西的南宁－百色之间逐渐向北西３１０°方向迁移了约６００ ｋｍ ,推测这一迁移轨迹可能受金沙江－哀牢山洋盆扩张的影响。据此估计, 金沙江－哀牢山洋盆宽度可达约１ ０００ ｋｍ 。据地幔柱岩浆轨迹与金沙江－哀牢山缝合带所夹的角度推测, 扬子地块可能经历了顺时针旋转, 与古地磁资料一致。     

一次低空暖切变线引发的暴雨天气过程分析

对2005年9月18—19日发生在山东省的一次区域性暴雨过程进行了分析。结果表明：该过程是由850hPa暖切变线北上引发的，暴雨主要产生在暖切变线强盛时期和转为冷槽时的变性阶段。西风带小高压在鲁北地区的滞留对稳定和延长暖切变线对暴雨区的影响时间起了关键作用。高空急流与低空较强西南气流的有利配置为暴雨区的对流运动提供了大尺度环境场。0516号台风和副高西北侧的两支偏南气流结合，为暴雨区输送了充足的水汽和不稳定能量。500hPa短波槽和850hPa湿静力能量锋是触发不稳定能量释放的主要系统。     

青海省祁连县大拉洞柏杨沟矿区煤岩层对比研究

通过研究太原组的沉积特征及聚煤变化规律,采用了标志层、煤岩层组合特征、层间距、测井曲线形态等方法,对矿区内煤层、岩层进行了综合对比。确定了该区主要煤层的赋存层位、形态、分布及变化特征,对周边地区找煤工作具有一定的指导作用。     

Assessment of the changes in extreme vulnerability over East Asia due to global warming

A number of indices have been employed to describe weather extremes on the basis of climate regimes and public concerns. In this study, we combined these traditional indices into four groups according to whether they relate to warm (T_warm), cold (T_cold), wet (P_wet), or dry (P_dry) extremes. Analysis of the combined indices calculated for the daily temperatures and precipitation at 750 meteorological stations in Korea, China, and Japan for 1960s?C2000s shows increasing trends in T_warm and P_dry events and decreasing trends in T_cold events in recent decades, particularly in the northern part of East Asia. A notable regional variation is an increase in the P_wet events in the Korean Peninsula. We applied the same analysis to a 200-year global climate model simulation for 1900?C2099 using the National Center for Atmospheric Research-Community Climate System Model 3. During the 20th century, the changes in T_warm and T_cold calculated from the model data are largely consistent with those calculated from the observations, especially in northern East Asia. The model projections for the 21st century indicate statistically significant increasing T_warm and decreasing T_cold trends in extreme events over the region. Results obtained from historical archives and model simulations using our combined weather extreme indices suggest that northern East Asia will be subject to increased warm and dry extremes and the Korea Peninsula will experience more wet extremes.     

我国北方一作区马铃薯高产稳产区分布特征

北方一作区马铃薯种植面积和总产量居我国首位,明确其高产稳产区分布,对马铃薯种植合理布局具有重要意义。基于1981—2019年研究区域内234个气象站点逐日气象数据以及作物、土壤数据,利用APSIM-Potato模型,以产量平均值和变异系数为高产性和稳产性评价指标,将研究区域划分为高产高稳、高产低稳、低产高稳和低产低稳4个亚区,分析不同生产水平下我国北方一作区马铃薯高产稳产区分布特征,探讨降水和土壤对马铃薯高产性和稳产性的影响。结果表明：不同生产水平下马铃薯高产区比例呈下降趋势;随着限制因素增加,高产高稳区面积比例逐渐降低,气候-土壤潜在生产水平下高产高稳区面积比例仅占研究区域总面积的13%;高产低稳区是潜在的高产高稳区,及时采取有效措施可提升稳产性。降水对马铃薯高产性和稳产性的影响大于土壤。实际生产中,降水和土壤限制下高产性和稳产性降低的区域,应注意结合当地灌溉条件配合耕作措施,以确保马铃薯高产稳产。     

Controlling Factors,Accumulation Model and Target Zone Prediction of the Coal‐bed Methane in the Huanghebei Coalfield,North China

The Huanghebei Coalfield, one of the coal production bases in North China, was considered as a coalfield without coal‐bed methane (CBM) during past decades. In recent years, however, CBM has been discovered in coal‐bearing successions. In order to understand the CBM geological characteristics and accumulation process in this area, fifteen coal samples were collected and analyzed with respect to coal maceral and reflectance. The result shows that the gas distribution is uneven and the content varies in different areas even for the same coal bed. The storage of CBM is affected by geological factors such as burial depth, geological structures, and magmatic intrusion, among which the former two are more important in the formation of CBM. Deep burial of coal beds with the presence of cap‐rock mudstone can seal CBM. The CBM is also accumulated and preserved at the place where normal faults are distributed. Magmatic intrusion causes contact metamorphism and controls the CBM formation by heating the coal‐bearing successions. The obtained data indicate the geological conditions in northeastern Zhaoguan Mine are preferable for CBM formation and conservation; recent exploration estimates the CBM geological reserves up to 282.16 Mm³ and average of reserve abundance at 0.1662 × 10⁸ m³ km^?2. The Changqing Mine is a potential prospect in terms of CBM exploration since its geological conditions (structures and burial depth) are similar to the Zhaoguan Mine and its cap rock is even better.     

面板堆石坝面板竖缝特性对面板应力变形影响分析

采用三维有限元方法,研究了面板竖缝特性对面板堆石坝中面板应力变形的影响。基于类似子结构法概念,建立了精细模拟面板及其分缝特性的三维有限元分析方法。针对马来西亚巴贡面板堆石坝,计算了多种面板竖缝宽度和填料的方 案,得到坝体和面板的应力变形。计算结果表明,面板竖缝几何尺寸和填料特性对面板的挠度、顺坡向应力、水平向压应力和周边缝张合变形影响不大,而对面板的水平向拉应力和竖缝压缩量影响很大;面板竖缝填料变软和宽度增大均会导致面板的水平向压应力减小,而竖缝压缩量明显增大;采用软木作为填充材料较之填充硬木,可以大约降低一半的压应力;面板竖缝宽度及其填料特性对同期填筑的面板、特别是邻近的面板水平向压应力影响较大。