EWT-Elman组合模型短期电离层TEC预报

针对电离层总电子含量(TEC)非线性、高噪声的特点,建立基于经验小波变换(EWT)和Elman神经网络的短期电离层组合预报模型。运用该模型对不同地磁环境的电离层TEC时间序列进行建模预报,结果表明,EWT-Elman组合模型可反映电离层TEC的变化特征,地磁平静期预测平均相对精度为93%,均方根误差为1.04 TECu;地磁扰动期预测平均相对精度为92.4%,均方根误差为2.18 TECu。单一Elman模型、EMD-Elman组合模型以及EWT-BP组合模型在地磁平静期平均相对精度最高为90.7%,均方根误差最小为1.33 TECu;地磁扰动期平均相对精度最高为90.7%,均方根误差最小为2.57 TECu。对比其他模型,本文方法预测效果最优。     

Thickness distribution and extent of sea ice and snow in Prydz Bay and surrounding waters observed in 2012/2013 austral summer

Three ship-based observational campaigns were conducted to survey sea ice and snow in Prydz Bay and the surrounding waters(64.40°S–69.40°S, 76.11°E–81.29°E) from 28 November 2012 to 3 February 2013. In this paper, we present the sea ice extent and its variation, and the ice and snow thickness distributions and their variations with time in the observed zone. In the pack ice zone, the southern edge of the pack ice changed little, whereas the northern edge retreated significantly during the two earlier observation periods. Compared with the pack ice, the fast ice exhibited a significantly slower variation in extent with its northernmost edge retreating southwards by 6.7 km at a rate of 0.37 km?d-1. Generally, ice showed an increment in thickness with increasing latitude from the end of November to the middle of December. Ice and snow thickness followed an approximate normal distribution during the two earlier observations(79.7±28.9 cm, 79.1±19.1 cm for ice thickness, and 11.6±6.1 cm, 9.6±3.4 cm for snow thickness, respectively), and the distribution tended to be more concentrated in mid-December than in late November. The expected value of ice thickness decreased by 0.6 cm, whereas that of snow thickness decreased by 2 cm from 28 November to 18 December 2012. Ice thickness distribution showed no obvious regularity between 31 January and 3 February, 2013.     

Swift时代伽马暴的观测及研究进展

Swift卫星从2004年11月20日升空开始运转到现在已有2年多时间.到目前为止,它-共观测到了200多个伽马暴及其余辉现象.由于Swift观测到了早期X射线余辉、短暴余辉和高红移伽马暴等新的重要现象,伽马暴研究进入了新的时代.该文首先对伽马暴的研究历史做简短回顾,然后简要介绍伽马暴的物理图像和Swift卫星的构成及特点,最后全面评述Swift的观测成就及由此引起的理论挑战.     

德令哈13.7m望远镜多波束接收机的运行

德令哈13.7 m望远镜是中国最重要的射电望远镜之一.望远镜自安装超导成像频谱仪以及采用飞行观测模式以来,运行近10 yr.在此期间,望远镜开展并完成大量的天文观测,累积了巨量的天文数据,取得了一系列重要的科研成果.介绍了超导成像频谱仪在天文观测中的运行状态,运行中疑难问题、故障现象及解决方案.详述了超导成像频谱仪各方面性能测试及多年来的性能分析,包含接收机噪声温度及望远镜系统噪声温度、镜像抑制比、接收机稳定性、波束性能等方面.列举了超导成像频谱仪更新发展方面的工作,包含本振功率自动化调整、边带分离型超导混频器预放大电路的更新、控制程序的优化等.总结经验和规律,承前启后,将过去的超导成像频谱仪的维护运行经验应用到之后新一代大规模接收机系统中.     

德令哈13.7m望远镜接收机抗射频干扰研究

在天文观测中,射频干扰会造成假谱,降低数据的可靠性和有效性.射频干扰消减旨在减少干扰信号对射电天文观测的影响,包含器件方面的技术革新和数据处理领域的方法研究.针对德令哈13.7 m望远镜接收机中频部分引入的射频干扰,通过优化中频器件的抗射频干扰能力,提高了接收机的整体抗射频干扰能力,以主动消除方法来减少射频干扰耦合到接收机内部.分析了接收机干扰的传输路径,提出了器件射频干扰的直接耦合系数和器件射频干扰的系统耦合系数的概念,为定位干扰敏感器件并量化干扰引入比重提供了基础.经过抗射频干扰优化后,接收机抗干扰能力改善30 dB左右,望远镜的天文观测效率提高10%以上.     

贺兰山小松山基性-超基性杂岩体岩石地球化学特征

贺兰山小松山岩体的岩石地球化学研究表明,基性岩的Mg^#为0．71～0．76,接近原生岩浆的值,超基性岩的Mg^#为0．80～0．89,具有岩浆早期堆晶的特征,稀土总量∑REE为（13．03～82．66）×10^-6;δ（Eu）为1．08～1．61,具弱正异常;（La／Yb）N为2．49～5．24,（Ce／Yb）N为3．01～4．97,配分曲线表现为轻稀土相对富集的右倾型。微量元素配分曲线图表现为大离子亲石元素富集。岩石地球化学数据综合分析证明,该岩体产于板内拉张环境,岩体形成过程中经历了岩浆分离结晶作用,后期发生了同化混染,岩体具有寻找铬-铜-镍型岩浆矿床的潜力。     

A comparative study of fish community in four main estuaries of China southeastern coastal areas and their adjacent waters

Based on literature and survery data of fish composition collected by bottom trawl investigation from 2006 to 2007 infour main estuaries of China southeastern coastal areas and their adjacent waters,changes of the taxonomic diversity across spatialand temporal scales of fish community were analyzed by taxonomic diversity indices.The results are as follows:a total number of1397 fish species(including some freshwater species),belonging to 2 classes,42 orders,186 families and 593 genera,were collected inthe studied sea areas.The species richness increased with lower latitudes,particularly so with Perciformes.There were 339 fish spe-cies in the Yangtze River Estuary and adjacent waters,belonging to 2 classes,31 orders,101 families and 231 genera.There were 535fish species in the Minjiang River Estuary and adjacent waters,belonging to 2 classes,33 orders,133 families and 323 genera.A totalnumber of 803 fish species were collected in the Jiulongjiang River Estuary and adjacent waters,which belonged to 2 classes,35 orders,155 families and 419 genera.And 1021 fish species which belonged to 2 classes,32 orders,153 families,and 466 genera were collectedin the Pearl River Estuary and adjacent waters.The numbers of orders and families of fish species from the northern to the southern wa-ters first increased and then decreased.The average variation in taxonomic distinctness(Λ+)gradually decreased with lower latitudes inthe four estuaries and adjacent waters.There were no significant differences in the average taxonomic distinctness(△+)among the fourestuaries and adjacent waters,and fish fauna were closely related with each other,and all of them belonged to the same zoogeographicalfauna(Indian-Malaysia fauna).Fish composition in the Minjiang River Estuary and adjacent waters was more similar to that in the Jiu-longjiang River Estuary and adjacent waters among the four estuaries.Compared with the historical data,the average taxonomic dis-tinctness of fish community showed a great decrease in the Minjiang River Estuary and the Jiulongjiang River Estuary and their adjacentwaters.     

异育银鲫气单胞菌病原菌鉴定和药敏试验

从患病异育银鲫体内分离到5株可疑菌株,经API 20NE细菌生化鉴定,YCS07-03和YZ07-11株鉴定率为99.2%和99.3%。注射感染中5×108 CFU.mL-1剂量组表现出较强的致病性,12 d死亡率100%。菌株在营养肉汤培养液中呈均匀混浊状;在营养琼脂平皿中呈灰白色半透明菌落;在血琼脂培养基中呈光滑灰白色菌落,YZ07-11株出现透明的β溶血环;在TCBS培养基呈黄色菌落;在SS和麦康凯培养基中形成无色透明的扁平菌落。经负染电镜观察,菌株两端圆,呈直杆状,无芽孢,极生单鞭毛,菌株大小(短径×长径)分别为1.53μm×2.71μm和0.80μm×2.12μm。菌株经生化实验鉴定为温和气单胞菌(Aeromonas sobria)和嗜水气单胞菌(Aeromonas hydrophila)。试验结果表明:菌株对丁胺卡那霉素、头孢噻肟、庆大霉素、左氟沙星、复合磺胺、氟嗪酸、洛美沙星、复方新诺明、链霉素和新霉素均产生高度敏感;对万古霉素为中度敏感;氨苄青霉素、羧苄青霉素、强力霉素和青霉素产生耐药。     

Revisiting the Relationship Between Urbanization and Economic Development in China Since the Reform and Opening-up

The relationship between urbanization and economic development has become a hot topic in the scientific community due to its great practical significance,and economic and social value.However,this relationship continues to change dynamically.In the new stage of urbanization,it is urgent to reveal the causal relationship quantitatively and diagnose the future direction systematically.Based on this,this paper calculates the contribution rate of China’s urbanization to economic development from 1978 to 2019 and uses the panel data cointegration test method to explore the causal relationship between urbanization and economic development in China.The study has three principal results.First,the contribution rate of urbanization to economic growth has maintained the overall growth trend from1978 to 2019,but the growth rate of urbanization’s contribution to economic growth has been relatively low since 2012.It is an important reason that the real estate sector has moved into a new stage of transformation.Second,the cointegration test shows that economic development is a significant factor in advancing urbanization and the urbanization is the product of economic development.Urbanization has a positive feedback effect on economic development,but this effect does not pass the 5%significance level test.The impulse response function shows that the impact of urbanization on economic development is relatively small and stable,indicating that it is limited that the boost of economic development by land-centered urbanization.Third,China’s urbanization and economic development have both shown rapid growth for some time,but their relationship is still the low level of coordination,which has also led to a downward trend in the contribution of new-type,people-oriented urbanization to economic growth in recent years.In the future,China’s urbanization and economy need to maintain relatively medium-low speed growth in the medium-long term,and we should boost the coordinated development of urbanization and economy from low level to high level.