基于地质记录用时域组合模型预测气候变化趋势的初步研究

用时域分析组合模型建立了１００万年来６０°Ｎ６月份太阳辐射量时间序列、宝鸡黄土粒度时间序列、渭南夏季风指数时间序列的动态模型．研究结果表明,时域分析组合模型较好地提取了时间序列的信息,得到的几个显著周期Ｔ＝１３３,１００,８９,４１,２３,１９ｋａ,与地球轨道三要素的变化周期接近．用组合模型拟合实测数据,精度是高的;用其预测未来气候替代性指标时间序列的变化情况,发现未来气候有向干冷方向发展的趋势．时域分析组合模型为研究气候变化趋势提供了一种定量分析、预测的方法．     

基于准三维有限元方法建立的地震活动模型

基于有限元方法,参照细胞自动机模型,建立了一个地震活动演化的动力学模型.在这个模型中,根据边界条件和单元介质参数的分布,利用有限元方法确定各单元的应力增长速率.每个单元设定初始应力和摩擦因数,利用破裂准则可得到单元破裂所需时间.当单元破裂后,将破裂单元作为内部边界,利用有限元方法计算由于这个单元破裂对系统其他单元造成的应力调整.根据上述规则,建立一个由30×40个节点组成,在定常位移速率边界条件作用下的地震活动模型,探讨了区域应力场的动态演化、地震活动图像和各种参数变化对地震活动的影响.结果表明该模型在研究地震活动方面有一定优势并具有实用价值.     

中国碳减排目标的地区分解方法研究述评

碳减排目标的区域分配是中国当前控制CO2排放的紧迫问题。通过文献研究,评述了国际上针对国家之间的碳排放权的区域分解方案以及中国碳减排目标的国内区域分解方案,提出了要想真正公平、公正、可行以及可持续地进行碳减排目标的地区分解,必须明确以下几个方面的关键和核心问题:分配对象、分配原则、分配方案必须考虑的因素、分配标准、分配方法、分配模型以及分配结果的可靠性和合理性。     

Quaternary Climate and Environment in the Lop Nur, Xinjiang

Since the middle Early Pleistocene (1.20 Ma B.P.), the desert steppe climate and environment have predominated in the Lop Nur area, Xinjiang, characterized by warm humid epochs interrupted by dry cold intervals. The grain-size and magnetic susceptibility curves record 30 climatic oscillations, each with a ca. 40 ka cycle, in the area since 1.2 Ma B.P., which reflects the controlling effects exerted by the astronomic factor on the environment. The Quaternary sedimentary environment in the Lop Nur gradually changed from a fresh lake through a brackish lake to a saline lake, showing a spiral evolution, and finally it evolved into a playa.     

Enrichment Patterns and New Discovery of Deep Lacustrine Shale Oil in the Upper Cretaceous Qingshankou Formation,Songliao Basin,NE China

正Objective The Songliao Basin is located in northeastern China. The Upper Cretaceous Qingshankou Formation(Fm.)(K2 qn), Yaojia Fm.(K2 y), and Nenjiang Fm.(K2 n) were deposited in its depression. The sediments are mainly continental clastic rocks. The first member of the Qingshankou Fm.(K2 qn1) in the southern Songliao Basin mainly comprises semi-deep to deep lacustrine shale of large thickness, generally 30,100 m, with wide distribution; the thickness of the shale has an average thickness of 70 m.     

黄河下游悬河稳定性因素分析

黄河悬河的形成是自然营力与人为因素综合作用的产物.悬河的稳定性关乎黄河下游广大人民的生命财产安全.从地学角度出发,论证了影响黄河悬河稳定性的因素:①地质构造控制机制;②河流地貌的影响;③河床质与土体结构;④流动力地质作用;⑤治理工程对悬河稳定性的影响.     

贵州施秉白云岩溶蚀特性及孔隙特征实验研究

以贵州施秉白云岩为研究对象,从宏观和微观角度分析白云岩的溶蚀特性及孔隙特征,结果显示:(1)在众多影响施秉喀斯特发育的因素中,矿物成分是最基本的内因,水是最关键的外因,孔隙结构起辅助作用。(2)极细晶白云岩的单位表面积溶蚀量一般大于细晶白云岩的,在晶粒相同的情况下,白云岩的溶蚀量与Ca O和Mg O的含量分别成正比,且Mg O的含量影响较Ca O大。(3)施秉白云岩溶蚀速率不仅受岩石矿物颗粒粒径大小的控制,还受岩石内部孔隙结构特征的影响,颗粒粒径越大,孔隙度越高,连通性越好,越有利于水溶液进入,溶蚀量也就越大。(4)施秉白云岩的溶蚀特性是多种因素综合作用的结果,必须把各个因素分离开来,从宏观和微观角度逐个作详细的分析研究,然后综合起来,才能对喀斯特发育规律有更深入的了解。     

Chronological Study of Coal-seam Water and its Implication on Gas Production in the South Qinshui Basin

The knowledge of the residence time of formation water is fundamental to understanding the subsurface flow and hydrological setting. To better identify the origin and evolution of coal seam water and its impact on gas storage and production, this study collected coalbed methane co-produced water in the southeast Qinshui Basin and detected chemical and isotopic compositions, especially 36Cl and 129I concentrations. The calculated tracer ages of 129I (5.2–50.6 Ma) and 36Cl (0.13–0.76 Ma) are significantly younger than the age of coal-bearing formation (Pennsylvanian - Cisuralian), indicating freshwater recharge after coal deposition. The model that utilises 129I/I and 36Cl/Cl ratios to constrain the timing of recharge and the proportion of recharge water reveals that over 60% of pre-anthropogenic meteoric water entered coal seams since 10 Ma and mixed with residue initial deposition water, corresponding to the basin inversion in Cenozoic. The spatial distribution of major ion concentrations reveals the primary recharge pathway for meteoric water from coal outcrops at the eastern margin to the basin center. This study demonstrates the occurrence of higher gas production rates from wells that accept water recharge in recent times and suggests the possible potential of the non-stagnant zones for high gas production.     

我国金伯利岩含金性试验研究--以辽宁瓦房店50号岩管为例

一般认为原生或伴生金矿床在成因上与中酸性火成岩有关.文章通过我国金伯利岩型金刚石矿床伴生金的试验研究,确定该类型伴生金矿与超基性火成岩有关.金伯利岩中个别样品w(Au)=0.46×10-6,金刚石选矿尾矿及其重选精矿金的质量分数均较高,具有一定的学术研究价值和开发利用前景.     

A DIAGNOSTIC ANALYSIS OF AIR TEMPERATURE ANOMALY MODE OVER CHINA IN 2009/2010 WINTER BASED ON GENERALIZED EQUILIBRIUM FEEDBACK ASSESSMENT (GEFA) METHOD

By using the observed monthly mean data over 160 stations of China and NCAR/NCEP reanalysis data, the generalized equilibrium feedback assessment(GEFA) method, combined with the methods of EOF analysis, correlation and composite analysis, is used to explore the influence of different SST modes on a wintertime air temperature pattern in which it is cold in the northeast and warm in the southwest in China. The results show that the 2009/2010 winter air temperature oscillation mode between the northern and southern part of China is closely related to the corresponding sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTA) and its associated atmospheric circulation anomalies. Exhibiting warming in Northeast China and cooling in Southwest China, the mode is significantly forced by the El Nio mode and the North Atlantic SSTA mode, which have three poles. Under the influence of SSTA modes, the surface northerly flow transported cold air to North and Northeast China, resulting in low temperatures in the regions. Meanwhile, the mid-latitude westerlies intensify and the polar cold air stays in high latitudes and cannot affect the Southwest China, resulting in the warming there.