A Comparison of Four Precipitation Distribution Models Used in Daily Stochastic Models

Stochastic weather generators are statistical models that produce random numbers that resemble the observed weather data on which they have been fitted; they are widely used in meteorological and hydrologi- cal simulations. For modeling daily precipitation in weather generators, first-order Markov chain-dependent exponential, gamma, mixed-exponential, and lognormal distributions can be used. To examine the perfor- mance of these four distributions for precipitation simulation, they were fitted to observed data collected at 10 stations in the watershed of Yishu River. The parameters of these models were estimated using a maximum-likelihood technique performed using genetic algorithms. Parameters for each calendar month and the Fourier series describing parameters for the whole year were estimated separately. Bayesian infor- mation criterion, simulated monthly mean, maximum daily value, and variance were tested and compared to evaluate the fitness and performance of these models. The results indicate that the lognormal and mixed-exponential distributions give smaller BICs, but their stochastic simulations have overestimation and underestimation respectively, while the gamma and exponential distributions give larger BICs, but their stochastic simulations produced monthly mean precipitation very well. When these distributions were fitted using Fourier series, they all underestimated the above statistics for the months of June, July and August.     

华南前汛期广东暴雨分区动力特征及特大暴雨分析

依据2009－2013 年华南地区72 测站逐日降水资料,利用 REOF方法、合成分析等方法,分析华南前汛期（4-6 月）暴雨时空特征。结果表明：暴雨降水量占总降水量34.6%,年暴雨日数170天以上。REOF方法分析获得华南前汛期5个暴雨模态区, 其中广东两模态区中心荷载强于其余3个区,降雨更多,雨强更大。合成分析显示,广东北部暴雨区受西风带系统影响为主, 暴雨中尺度系统为气旋及变形场锋生。沿海暴雨区受副热带系统控制为主,中尺度系统主要为低空急流,输送气旋式切变和旋转涡度,及低空速度辐合, 并提供自海上来的充沛水汽,造成沿海区暴雨远强于北部区。 近5 a前汛期广东24 h累积降雨量大于200mm的大暴雨有14次,均发生在沿海暴雨模态区。两区暴雨机制分别为西风带中尺度低值系统锋生降水,和副热带系统暖区登陆地形作用降水。海温SST方面沿海暴雨区环境较北部暴雨区具有更大平均水汽潜热量,含更充沛水汽。而感热场反映沿海暴雨区从下垫面吸收更多热能量,更有利于不稳定暴雨过程维持与加强。对2010 年6 月9 -12 日广东沿海上川岛持续性特大暴雨分析显示,东北阻塞高压强盛与副热带高压西伸北进势均力敌配置,水汽通道和水汽通量散度輻合异常强盛, 湿位涡湿正压项和湿斜压项均构成有利于垂直涡度增长环境, 这些因子维持了特大暴雨过程。     

The Effects of Line-Wing Cutoff in LBL Integration on Radiation Calculations

There are three basic methods in radiative transfer calculations, i.e., line-by-line (LBL) integration, correlated k-distribution method, and band model. The LBL integration is the most accurate of all, in which, there are two quadrature algorithms named in this paper as integration by lines and by sampling "points when calculating atmospheric transmittance in the considered wavenumber region. Because the LBL integration is the most expensive of all, it is necessary and important to save calculation time but increase calculation speed when it is put into use in the daily operation in atmospheric remote sensing and atmospheric sounding. A simplified LBL method is given in this paper on the basis of integration by lines, which increases computational speed greatly with keeping the same accuracy. Then, we discuss the effects of different cutoff schemes on atmospheric absorption coefficient, transmittance, and cooling rate under both of accurate and simplified LBL methods in detail. There are four cutoff schemes described in this paper, i.e., CUTOFFs 1, 2, 3, and 4. It is shown by this numerical study that the way to cut off spectral line-wing has a great effect on the accuracy and speed of radiative calculations. The relative errors of the calculated absorption coefficients for CUTOFF 2 are the largest under different pressures, while for CUTOFF 1, they are less than 2% at most of sampling points and for CUTOFFs 3 or 4, they are ahnost less than 5% in the calculated spectral region, however, the calculation time is reduced greatly. We find in this study that the transmittance in the lower atmosphere is not sensitive to different LBL methods and different cutoff schemes. Whereas for the higher atmosphere, the differences of transmittance results between CUTOFF 2 and each of other three cutoff schemes are the biggest of all no matter for the accurate LBL or for the simplified LBL integrations. By comparison, the best and optimized cutoff scheme is given in this paper finally.     

河北大茂山碘化银地面发生器增雪作业影响分析

利用常规气象资料、MICAPS资料和NECP/NCAR再分析资料,结合高斯模拟,分析了2012年11月10日唐县大茂山地基碘化银发生器增雪作业的作业条件。结果发现,此次天气背景为自西南向东北移动的冷涡云系,根据帕斯奎尔(Pasquill)稳定度分类法得出作业时间段大气处于中性层结状态;高斯模式模拟得出,有效的AgI浓度向上扩散范围高达3.0 km;作业点作业时段上空至3.2 km均处于上升气流区,计算出作业点发生器出口温度1.0℃。因冬季人工观测云底高度多为2.5~3.0 km,综合分析认为,该作业点的选址是合适的,此次作业条件较好,可以将催化剂输送到云中,起到催化作用。     

基于概率加权估计的中国极端气温时空分布模拟试验

引入一种计算简便、有效性高,并可代替极大似然法的优良参数估计方法--概率加权法(PWM),利用Gumbel分布对中国极端气温时空变化特征作"当前"与"未来"气候的模拟试验.结果表明,这种方法具有较高的拟合优度.利用适应性较强的Weibull分布拟合中国逐日高(低)气温的原始分布,在此基础上,借助于蒙特卡洛随机模拟产生未来平均气候情景下的极端高(低)气温统计概率特征.模拟试验表明,在未来气候条件下,若平均气温升高1.0℃,中国各大区域极端高(低)气温的概率有一定的变动规律可寻.     

青藏高原前期冬春季地面热源与我国夏季降水关系的初步分析

首先对青藏高原地表热通量再分析资料与自动气象站(AWS)实测资料进行对比, 结果表明: 相对于美国国家环境预报中心和国家大气中心20世纪90年代研制的NCEP/NCAR(Kalnay 等1996)和NCEP/DOE (Kanamitsu 等2002) 再分析资料, ECMWF(Uppala 等2004)资料在高原地区的地表热通量具有较好的代表性。进一步利用奇异值分解(SVD)方法分析了ECMWF资料反映的高原地面热源与我国夏季降水的关系, 发现前期青藏高原主体的冬季地面热源与长江中下游地区夏季降水量呈负相关, 与华北和东南沿海地区的夏季降水量呈正相关。而长江中下游地区夏季降水量还与春季高原南部的地面热源存在负相关、与高原北部的地面热源存在正相关。高原冬、春季地面热源场的变化是影响我国夏季降水的重要因子。     

Characteristics of Lake Breezes and Their Impacts on Energy and Carbon Fluxes in Mountainous Areas

In mountainous lake areas, lake–land and mountain–valley breezes interact with each other, leading to an "extended lake breeze". These extended lake breezes can regulate and control energy and carbon cycles at different scales. Based on meteorological and turbulent fluxes data from an eddy covariance observation site at Erhai Lake in the Dali Basin,southwest China, characteristics of daytime and nighttime extended lake breezes and their impacts on energy and carbon dioxide exchange in 2015 are investigated. Lake breezes dominate during the daytime while, due to different prevailing circulations at night, there are two types of nighttime breezes. The mountain breeze from the Cangshan Mountain range leads to N1 type nighttime breeze events. When a cyclonic circulation forms and maintains in the southern part of Erhai Lake at night, its northern branch contributes to the formation of N2 type nighttime breeze events. The prevailing wind directions for daytime, N1, and N2 breeze events are southeast, west, and southeast, respectively. Daytime breeze events are more intense than N1 events and weaker than N2 events. During daytime breeze events, the lake breeze decreases the sensible heat flux(Hs) and carbon dioxide flux(F_{CO_2}) and increases the latent heat flux(LE). During N1 breeze events, the mountain breeze decreases Hs and LE and increases F_{CO_2}. For N2 breeze events, the southeast wind from the lake surface increases Hs and LE and decreases suppress carbon dioxide exchange.     

人机交互系统的网格设计和计算方法

文中介绍了机交互处理系统中用于客观分析和图形低处理矩形网格的设计与开发,实现了经纬度坐标向网格坐标和屏幕坐标的目标转换以及离散点资料向网格点的自动插值。计算机自动设计的网格,其范围和格距的大小具有可变性,为资料的经处理、天气图的填绘１、图形图象的缩放与漫游等提供了便利。     

2001年兰州地区春季沙尘暴天气的对比分析

2 0 0 1年 4月 ,兰州地区连续出现了两次区域性强沙尘暴天气。文中从天气概况、气候背景、地面和高空环流形势等方面 ,对两次沙尘暴天气进行了分析。结果表明 ,两次沙尘暴天气过程是在同样的大尺度环流背景下产生的 ,都是由冷锋后偏北大风引起的。但由于造成两次沙尘暴天气的冷空气强度、锋区南压程度、冷空气移动路径等不同 ,因此造成两次沙尘暴天气影响范围、强度也有所不同。同时 ,兰州地区 2 0 0 1年冬季气温异常偏高 ,春季降水偏少以及本地区特殊的地理、地形环境 ,加剧了大风、沙尘暴的出现频次和强度。通过分析 ,初步总结出了此类天气的预报思路和要点。     

基于作物旱度指标的农业干旱评价指标与模型研究

在广泛研究国内外农业干旱指标的基础上,首次提出"作物旱度指标I"t、"作物相对旱度指标Ir"t、"作物干旱强度指标Di"建立了广元市农业干旱评价指标和模式。当作物相对旱度指标Ir20≧0.6持续15天时发布农业干旱预警,为防旱治旱提供决策依据。