中国气候与环境演变评估(I):中国气候与环境变化及未来趋势

近百年来,全球气候正经历着一次以变暖为主要特征的显著变化,全球气候与环境的重大变化对中国的气候与环境演变也产生了重大影响。来自气候、环境、海洋和经济社会科学等领域的百余位专家和学者对中国气候与环境的演变及其对自然生态系统和社会经济部门的影响进行了评估,在此基础上,提出了适应和减缓气候变化的对策。本文主要阐述在全球气候变化背景下中国气候与环境的演变,并对未来气候变化的趋势做出了预测。     

华南暖区暴雨中一次飑线的中尺度分析

利用地面加密观测资料、高空观测资料、多普勒雷达观测和雷达风场反演资料等,分析造成2010年5月6—7日华南暴雨中一次飑线的演变过程及三维结构特征。结果表明:(1)此次飑线过程发生于200 hPa高空辐散区、500 hPa高空槽后、地面准静止锋锋前暖区内,850 hPa飑线北侧为切变线,东南侧存在低空急流,中低层为中等强度垂直风切变。(2)该飑线系统初始对流单体由西风受广西大瑶山脉地形阻挡而触发。发展过程中两广交界处不断生成新单体,东移发展并入对流带,单体发展及对流带的形成与地面中尺度辐合线关系密切。(3)该飑线在形成过程中存在对流带与对流单体的锢囚过程,锢囚过程中地面辐合线及中层中气旋起组织作用,至盛期对流带东段出现弓形回波结构。强降水拖曳、雨滴蒸发冷却增强下沉气流及中层冷空气入流,造成地面冷池及后部辐散出流,促进弓形回波发展。(4)成熟期飑线系统包含弓形回波、冷池及不明显的层状云区,三维结构特征与经典飑线类似,但无涡旋对,雷暴高压也不明显。     

东亚地区水汽输送与重庆夏季旱涝的联系

利用NCEP/NCAR(1960—2006年)的全球再分析格点资料,研究了东亚地区水汽输送异常与重庆夏季旱涝的关系。结果表明:当重庆夏季(7~8月)降水偏多(涝)时,欧亚地区中高纬维持"两脊一槽"的"双阻"型:乌拉尔山和鄂霍茨克海地区分别存在阻高,贝加尔湖地区为一槽区。冷空气沿着贝加尔湖槽后偏北风和乌拉尔山阻塞高压的南支西风南下进入中国。热带太平洋地区为显著的高度距平正异常区。副热带地区是高度距平负异常区,西太平洋副热带高压脊线位置偏南、强度偏强。来自热带海洋地区的暖湿气流分别沿西太平洋副热带高压西南侧和经印度、孟加拉湾两条主要路径进入中国。当来自高、低纬地区的冷、暖空气在长江流域中上游相遇,就会造成重庆等长江中上游地区降水异常偏多,发生洪涝。反之,降水偏少(旱)年,在欧亚中高纬地区存在"一槽一脊"的环流形势:乌拉尔山附近为一深厚的槽区;鄂霍茨克海阻塞高压异常发展,一直延伸到贝加尔湖附近;西欧地区维持着深厚的高压脊。西太平洋副热带高压位置偏北、偏东,主体基本退出中国大陆地区。整个热带为高度距平负异常区。这样环流形势致使东亚地区中高纬地区受乌拉尔山大槽影响盛行偏南风,不利于冷空气南下。低纬地区的暖湿气流沿着西太平洋副热带高压南面的东南气流从华南进入中国。这样的环流配置易造成南下的冷空气偏弱,同时使来自热带地区的暖空气向北推进到中国华北和东北地区,致使冷、暖空气无法在长江中上游地区交汇,该区域降水显著减少,形成干旱。     

非地转湿Q矢量分解在暴雨分析中的应用

利用非地转湿Q矢量对山东省春秋季两次罕见的暴雨天气进行了诊断分析。分析结果表明:暴雨期间都有较强的非地转湿Q矢量辐合,产生上升运动,形成暴雨。这一结果也表明凝结潜热加热对暴雨的产生有着重要的作用。本文进一步把非地转湿Q矢量分解为平行于等位温线和垂直于等位温线两部分。揭示在这两场暴雨过程中,虽然都有中尺度和大尺度辐合上升运动作用的叠加,但在春季暴雨的个例中,垂直于等位温线的非地转湿Q矢量的辐合与总的非地转湿Q矢量的辐合相接近,暴雨以中尺度上升运动为主。而在秋季暴雨的个例中,平行于等位温线的非地转湿Q矢量的辐合与总的非地转湿Q矢量的辐合在形状上相似,在强度上偏强,暴雨的上升运动以大尺度为主,中间夹杂着中小尺度的上升运动,降水以混合型为主。     

滨州沿海蒸发量与海盐产量的关系研究

海盐生产主要依靠自然蒸发,蒸发量预报对海盐生产有重要的指导作用。通过对1993—2007年滨州沿海蒸发量和海盐产量的分析,海盐产量的时间分布特征与净蒸发量基本一致,净蒸发量是影响海盐生产的决定性因素。分析蒸发量与气象要素之间的关系,分月建立了逐步回归方程,经检验可作为蒸发量的一种客观预报方法。     

A Comparison of Four Precipitation Distribution Models Used in Daily Stochastic Models

Stochastic weather generators are statistical models that produce random numbers that resemble the observed weather data on which they have been fitted; they are widely used in meteorological and hydrologi- cal simulations. For modeling daily precipitation in weather generators, first-order Markov chain-dependent exponential, gamma, mixed-exponential, and lognormal distributions can be used. To examine the perfor- mance of these four distributions for precipitation simulation, they were fitted to observed data collected at 10 stations in the watershed of Yishu River. The parameters of these models were estimated using a maximum-likelihood technique performed using genetic algorithms. Parameters for each calendar month and the Fourier series describing parameters for the whole year were estimated separately. Bayesian infor- mation criterion, simulated monthly mean, maximum daily value, and variance were tested and compared to evaluate the fitness and performance of these models. The results indicate that the lognormal and mixed-exponential distributions give smaller BICs, but their stochastic simulations have overestimation and underestimation respectively, while the gamma and exponential distributions give larger BICs, but their stochastic simulations produced monthly mean precipitation very well. When these distributions were fitted using Fourier series, they all underestimated the above statistics for the months of June, July and August.     

华南前汛期广东暴雨分区动力特征及特大暴雨分析

依据2009－2013 年华南地区72 测站逐日降水资料,利用 REOF方法、合成分析等方法,分析华南前汛期（4-6 月）暴雨时空特征。结果表明：暴雨降水量占总降水量34.6%,年暴雨日数170天以上。REOF方法分析获得华南前汛期5个暴雨模态区, 其中广东两模态区中心荷载强于其余3个区,降雨更多,雨强更大。合成分析显示,广东北部暴雨区受西风带系统影响为主, 暴雨中尺度系统为气旋及变形场锋生。沿海暴雨区受副热带系统控制为主,中尺度系统主要为低空急流,输送气旋式切变和旋转涡度,及低空速度辐合, 并提供自海上来的充沛水汽,造成沿海区暴雨远强于北部区。 近5 a前汛期广东24 h累积降雨量大于200mm的大暴雨有14次,均发生在沿海暴雨模态区。两区暴雨机制分别为西风带中尺度低值系统锋生降水,和副热带系统暖区登陆地形作用降水。海温SST方面沿海暴雨区环境较北部暴雨区具有更大平均水汽潜热量,含更充沛水汽。而感热场反映沿海暴雨区从下垫面吸收更多热能量,更有利于不稳定暴雨过程维持与加强。对2010 年6 月9 -12 日广东沿海上川岛持续性特大暴雨分析显示,东北阻塞高压强盛与副热带高压西伸北进势均力敌配置,水汽通道和水汽通量散度輻合异常强盛, 湿位涡湿正压项和湿斜压项均构成有利于垂直涡度增长环境, 这些因子维持了特大暴雨过程。     

The Effects of Line-Wing Cutoff in LBL Integration on Radiation Calculations

There are three basic methods in radiative transfer calculations, i.e., line-by-line (LBL) integration, correlated k-distribution method, and band model. The LBL integration is the most accurate of all, in which, there are two quadrature algorithms named in this paper as integration by lines and by sampling "points when calculating atmospheric transmittance in the considered wavenumber region. Because the LBL integration is the most expensive of all, it is necessary and important to save calculation time but increase calculation speed when it is put into use in the daily operation in atmospheric remote sensing and atmospheric sounding. A simplified LBL method is given in this paper on the basis of integration by lines, which increases computational speed greatly with keeping the same accuracy. Then, we discuss the effects of different cutoff schemes on atmospheric absorption coefficient, transmittance, and cooling rate under both of accurate and simplified LBL methods in detail. There are four cutoff schemes described in this paper, i.e., CUTOFFs 1, 2, 3, and 4. It is shown by this numerical study that the way to cut off spectral line-wing has a great effect on the accuracy and speed of radiative calculations. The relative errors of the calculated absorption coefficients for CUTOFF 2 are the largest under different pressures, while for CUTOFF 1, they are less than 2% at most of sampling points and for CUTOFFs 3 or 4, they are ahnost less than 5% in the calculated spectral region, however, the calculation time is reduced greatly. We find in this study that the transmittance in the lower atmosphere is not sensitive to different LBL methods and different cutoff schemes. Whereas for the higher atmosphere, the differences of transmittance results between CUTOFF 2 and each of other three cutoff schemes are the biggest of all no matter for the accurate LBL or for the simplified LBL integrations. By comparison, the best and optimized cutoff scheme is given in this paper finally.     

河北大茂山碘化银地面发生器增雪作业影响分析

利用常规气象资料、MICAPS资料和NECP/NCAR再分析资料,结合高斯模拟,分析了2012年11月10日唐县大茂山地基碘化银发生器增雪作业的作业条件。结果发现,此次天气背景为自西南向东北移动的冷涡云系,根据帕斯奎尔(Pasquill)稳定度分类法得出作业时间段大气处于中性层结状态;高斯模式模拟得出,有效的AgI浓度向上扩散范围高达3.0 km;作业点作业时段上空至3.2 km均处于上升气流区,计算出作业点发生器出口温度1.0℃。因冬季人工观测云底高度多为2.5~3.0 km,综合分析认为,该作业点的选址是合适的,此次作业条件较好,可以将催化剂输送到云中,起到催化作用。     

基于概率加权估计的中国极端气温时空分布模拟试验

引入一种计算简便、有效性高,并可代替极大似然法的优良参数估计方法--概率加权法(PWM),利用Gumbel分布对中国极端气温时空变化特征作"当前"与"未来"气候的模拟试验.结果表明,这种方法具有较高的拟合优度.利用适应性较强的Weibull分布拟合中国逐日高(低)气温的原始分布,在此基础上,借助于蒙特卡洛随机模拟产生未来平均气候情景下的极端高(低)气温统计概率特征.模拟试验表明,在未来气候条件下,若平均气温升高1.0℃,中国各大区域极端高(低)气温的概率有一定的变动规律可寻.