台风“苏力”灾害风险与防御行为效益评估

利用2013年台风“苏力”的监测资料、台风灾情资料、2000年后福建省台风灾害数据库资料和台风“苏力”灾害防御行为效益评估网络问卷调查资料,采用相似分析法的上下限区间估算法,预评估台风“苏力”造成的受灾人口和直接经济损失,并利用台风灾害风险区划方法,对台风“苏力”进行灾害风险区划。结果表明：台风“苏力”预评估结果与实际灾情相符,台风“苏力”灾害风险分布与实际灾情分布大部分一致,风险等级高的县市,实际灾情重,高风险区的大部县市直接经济损失均为1000万元以上。应用台风灾害防御行为效益评估三级指标体系,通过调查统计分析可知,指标体系中的各级各项指数均能较好地反映和评估政府主导、部门联动和公众参与的防御行为效益,政府主导在各类减灾行为中作用最大。     

江门地区雷雨大风天气的气候特征分析

应用江门地区6个气象站的雷雨大风历史观测资料,对江门市雷雨大风天气的气候特征进行了分析。结果表明:江门地区雷雨大风天气具有南部多于北部,沿海多于陆地的明显的地域性特征;雷雨大风年均日数为6.4 d,具有明显的年代际特征;雷雨大风月变化具有单峰型特征,且主要集中在汛期(4—9月);一天中任何时段都有可能出现雷雨大风天气,主峰值在13:00—15:00之间;发生7—8级的雷雨大风最多,占总数的88.9%,且多出现在6—7月;风力达到11级以上的雷雨大风只出现过6次,占总数的1.3%,且均出现在9月份。     

南支槽的客观识别方法及其气候特征

基于槽的客观识别方法,提出南支槽强度定义,利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料500 h Pa高度场识别了1953 2012年冬半年逐日南支槽分布,利用线性趋势、Mann-Kendall突变检测和小波分析等分析了近60年南支槽的气候及其变化特征。结果表明:南支槽年平均活动频次为46.4次,活动最频繁区位于青藏高原中部南侧(90°E 92.5°E),强度自西向东减弱;1月和5月的活动频次最高,1月和2月的强度最大;近60年南支槽活动频次有增加趋势,每年平均增加0.12次,在1960年前后发生突变,之前年平均为39.8次,之后年平均为47.5次;最显著周期为7年。对南支槽不同位置的整层水汽输送通量合成分析表明,南支槽前为水汽输送异常大值区,该水汽输送大值区随南支槽东移而东移。     

OBJECTIVE CLASSIFICATION OF THE TRACKS OF TROPICAL STORMS IN THE BAY OF BENGAL

An objective analysis of tropical cyclone tracks is performed, with which the tracks of 131 tropical storms (TSs) in 1972-2011 are separated into three types that move west-, north- and northwestward, denoted as Types A, B and C, respectively. Type A (21 TSs and 16% of total) has the origin in the southwestern Bay of Bengal, with the TS in a unimodal distribution as its seasonal feature, occurring mainly in autumn; 18 of the 21 TSs (taking up 90%) land mostly on the western Bay coast (west of 85°E); 5% of Type-A TSs attains the wind speed of >42.7 to 48.9 m/s. Type A has little or no effect on Tibet. Type B (74 TSs, 56.6% of the total) has its preferable origin in the central Bay of Bengal, with the TS in a bimodal distribution as its seasonal pattern. This type denotes the travel in the north in spring, with the landfall of 67 of the 74 TSs (accounting for 91%) mainly on the middle coast of the Bay (85° to 95°E), and 19% of the TSs reaching the wind velocity of >42.7 to 48.9 m/s, which exert great effect on Tibet and it is this TS track that gives strong precipitation on its way through this region. Type C (36 TSs, 27.5% of the total) has its main origin in the southern part of the bay, and these TSs are formed largely in autumn, moving in the northwest direction, and 23 of the 36 TSs (64%) land mostly on the western Bay coast, lasting for a longer time, with almost no impact upon Tibet.     

IMPACT OF TROPICAL INTRASEASONAL OSCILLATIONS ON THE PRECIPITATION OF GUANGDONG IN JUNES

The impact of tropical intraseasonal oscillations on the precipitation of Guangdong in Junes and its physical mechanism are analyzed using 30-yr (1979 to 2008), 86-station observational daily precipitation of Guangdong and daily atmospheric data from NCEP-DOE Reanalysis. It is found that during the annually first rainy season (April to June), the modulating effect of the activity of intraseasonal oscillations propagating eastward along the equator (MJO) on the June precipitation in Guangdong is different from that in other months. The most indicative effect of MJO on positive (negative) anomalous precipitation over the whole or most of the province is phase 3 (phase 6) of strong MJO events in Junes. A Northwest Pacific subtropical high intensifies and extends westward during phase 3. Water vapor transporting along the edge of the subtropical high from Western Pacific enhances significantly the water vapor flux over Guangdong, resulting in the enhancement of the precipitation. The condition is reverse during phase 6. The mechanism for which the subtropical high intensifies and extends westward during phase 3 is related to the atmospheric response to the asymmetric heating over the eastern Indian Ocean. Analyses of two cases of sustained strong rainfall of Guangdong in June 2010 showed that both of them are closely linked with a MJO state which is both strong and in phase 3, besides the effect from a westerly trough. It is argued further that the MJO activity is indicative of strong rainfall of Guangdong in June. The results in the present work are helpful in developing strategies for forecasting severe rainfall in Guangdong and extending, combined with the outputs of dynamic forecast models, the period of forecasting validity.     

Swift时代伽马射线暴的观测和理论

伽马射线暴是宇宙中最剧烈的爆发现象之一.Swift卫星的快速定位和Fermi卫星的宽、高能段观测,使得伽马暴的观测可以全波段进行.通过Swift的观测可以对伽马暴现象的本质有进一步的理解,而Fermi卫星提供了一些暴高能光子的辐射数据,为进一步研究暴的辐射机制和伽马暴以及它的余辉提供了有力的依据.介绍了Swift和Fermi卫星发射后一些伽马暴的观测和理论研究进展.     

厦门国家级珍稀海洋物种自然保护区文昌鱼(Branchiostoma belcheri)种群健康评价

利用2009-2010年四个季度月用底栖生物抓斗式采样器捕获的文昌鱼样品,从其资源分布、年龄结构、生物学和生态学特征等方面对厦门国家级珍稀海洋物种自然保护区文昌鱼的种群健康状况进行评价研究.结果表明:(1)文昌鱼种群资源分布衰减趋势明显,只在黄厝—前埔海区、小嶝岛—角屿海区和南线—十八线海区3个核心区还有分布,但资源密度低,分布范围狭小,而在鳄鱼屿实验区未能发现.(2)文昌鱼体重与体长之间关系:W=6.6895×10-4L3.1818;体长与体质量生长方程分别为:厶=65.63[1-e-0.68(t+032)],Wt=404.62[1-e-0.68(t+032)]3.1818;夏季、冬季航次的优势体长组分别为25-35mm和35-45mm,优势体重组分别为25-50mg和50-100mg;秋季低龄鱼较多,而冬季高龄鱼比例较高.(3)采用ELEFAN Ⅰ技术分析了厦门文昌鱼的Von Bertalanffy生长参数K、L∞、总死亡系数Z、自然死亡系数M和开发率E,发现其生长参数K值较大,自然死亡系数较高,开发率较大(0.69).综之,厦门自然保护区内的文昌鱼种群健康状况整体不佳,应注意资源保护,加强保护文昌鱼栖息地的底质和水质以及防止过度捕捞以实现其资源可持续利用.     

九龙江河-海系统夏季浮游植物磷胁迫研究

采用群落水平和细胞水平碱性磷酸酶活性(APA)相结合的方法,研究了2010年夏季(6-7月)九龙江河-海系统(河流-河口-邻近海域)浮游植物的磷胁迫,结果表明,单位叶绿素a的APA在河流下游区[(48.80±14.69)nmol/(h.μg Chl a)]显著高于河口区[(10.60±15.58)nmol/(h·μg Chl.a)]和邻近海域[(23.54±25.41)nmol/(h·μg Chl.a)],表明河流区的浮游植物磷胁迫显著高于河口区和邻近海域.三个区域高比例的游离态APA表明该水域浮游植物已较长时间处于磷胁迫状态.细胞水平的浮游植物荧光标记结果显示,河口区(20％±20％)与邻近海域(38％±20％)无显著差异(P＞0.05),此结果与群落水平APA结果相一致;但河口-邻近海域浮游植物的标记比例显著高于河流下游区(9％±3％)(P＜0.05).     

泥蚶(Tegillarca granosa)生长因子受体结合蛋白2(GRB2)基因的克隆与表达分析

通过已构建的泥蚶(Tegillarca granosa)转录组文库, 利用SMART RACE技术扩增得到泥蚶Tg-GRB2基因的全长cDNA序列, 并对其生物信息学、组织表达及发育阶段表达特征进行了分析。结果表明, 泥蚶Tg-GRB2 cDNA全长1283bp, 开放阅读框为708bp, 编码236个氨基酸; 蛋白结构预测显示, Tg-GRB2蛋白包含SH3-SH2-SH3三个功能域, SH2结构域由两端的α-螺旋和中间反向平行的β-折叠片构成, SH3结构域主要由β-折叠片组成, 具备典型的结构特征; 氨基酸序列比对发现, Tg-GRB2与脊椎动物的同源性为62.1%—63.8%, 而与玻璃海鞘和日本血吸虫同源性较低。qRT-PCR检测结果显示: Tg-GRB2 mRNA在泥蚶血液、斧足、鳃、外套膜、闭壳肌、内脏团6个组织中都有表达, 而在血液中的表达量极显著地高于其它组织; 在泥蚶的不同发育阶段中, Tg-GRB2 mRNA在 2—4细胞胚胎、原肠胚、担轮幼虫、D形幼虫中均有较高的表达量, 而在D形幼虫中表达量最高, 表明Tg-GRB2基因在泥蚶早期发育中发挥重要调节作用。     

The vertical structure of the atmospheric boundary layer over the central Arctic Ocean

The tropopause height and the atmospheric boundarylayer （PBL） height as well as the variation of inversion layer above the floating ice surface are presented using GPS （global position system ） radiosonde sounding data and relevant data obtained by Chinas fourth arctic scientific expedition team over the central Arctic Ocean （86°-88°N, 144°-170°W） during the summer of 2010. The tropopause height is from 9.8 to 10.5 km, with a temperature range between -52.2 and -54.10C in the central Arctic Ocean. Two zones of maximum wind （over 12 m/s） are found in the wind profile, namely, low- and upper-level jets, located in the middle troposphere and the tropopause, respectively. The wind direction has a marked variation point in the two jets from the southeast to the southwest. The average PBL height determined by two methods is 341 and 453 m respectively. These two methods can both be used when the inversion layer is very low, but the results vary significantly when the inversion layer is very high. A significant logarithmic relationship exists between the PBL height and the inversion intensity, with a correlation coefficient of 0.66, indicating that the more intense the temperature inversion is, the lower the boundary layer will be. The observation results obviously differ from those of the third arctic expedition zone （800-85° N）. The PBL height and the inversion layer thickness are much lower than those at 870-88° N, but the inversion temperature is more intense, meaning a strong ice- atmosphere interaction in the sea near the North Pole. The PBL structure is related to the weather system and the sea ice concentration, which affects the observation station.