GRAPES_RAFS系统2 m温度偏差订正方法研究

本文通过对2013年6月20日至7月20日GRAPES(Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction System)_RAFS(Rapid Analysis and Forecast System)系统每天8个时次每3h的2 m温度预报进行分析,发现各时次的预报均能较好地表征2 m温度日变化特征,但预报与实况存在一定的偏差,其中西藏东部川西高原、云贵高原、江南武夷山脉偏低于实况可达3℃,而华北地区偏高于实况3℃以上.为了减小GRAPES_RAFS系统偏差对2m温度预报的影响,本文采用平均法、双权重平均法、滑动平均法和滑动双权重平均法分别对GRAPES_RAFS系统2 m温度预报产品进行偏差订正,并对订正前后的结果进行检验分析和对比.结果表明:2 m温度订正后的平均误差大部地区减小到(一1～1℃),而均方根误差大部地区降低到2.5℃内.对于偏差较大地区,订正效果更为明显,如西藏东部川西高原,经过订正,平均误差绝对值由订正前3℃以上降低到1℃内,而RMSE由订正前4℃以上控制到3℃内.对比四种订正方法,双权重订正方法与平均法订正整体效果接近,但对个别站点,双权重订正法要优于平均法,经过滑动的订正方法比无滑动的订正方法订正效果更好,订正效果最好的是滑动双权重平均法,全国平均误差大部分在(-0.5～0.5℃)内,不超过(-1～1℃)的范围.     

一种改进的数值预报降水偏差订正方法及应用

对传统的消除偏差法进行改进,形成分等级消除偏差法,并使用混合训练期和60 d滑动训练期方案分别对2012年6—8月ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting) 模式夏季1~5 d的降水预报进行订正试验。为了尽可能符合中国东部夏季降水具有移动性及多种时间尺度变化的特点,混合训练期以预报期前30 d与预报期前一年同日的前后各15 d组成。结果表明:在使用分等级消除偏差法的基础上,相比ECMWF模式降水预报,两种训练期方案的订正结果几乎对各个阈值的ETS评分均有一定提高,特别是对25 mm以上降水预报评分的提高幅度,混合训练期方案的订正结果明显高于60 d滑动训练期方案;在区域性强降水预报的订正中,混合训练期方案优势更为明显。另外,通过分析两种训练期方案的预报偏差发现,分等级订正是此次消除偏差订正试验中提高强降水预报评分的关键,选择合适的训练期可以增加评分提高的幅度。由于上述试验使用的ECMWF模式预报和站点实况均是业务上常用数据,因此,该方法具有一定的业务应用价值。     

高速公路交通事故与气象条件的关系研究

恶劣天气是高速公路交通事故发生的重要诱因。为了解气象条件对高速公路交通事故的影响程度,基于2006—2008年汉宜高速公路交通事故数据,统计分析了该路段交通事故的月际和日变化特征,利用事故率和日交通事故指数区分定义了交通事故频次和灾害严重程度,采用多项式曲线拟合了气象条件与事故指数的关系,确定了事故突发增长的临界气象指标。结果表明:汛期5—9月是汉宜高速公路交通事故高发时期,冬季其次,春季3—4月及秋季10—11月事故发生较少。高速公路交通事故存在明显日变化特征,03—04时和14—17时为事故高发时段。汉宜高速公路交通事故频率主要受中到大雨和夏季高温天气的影响,事故灾害严重程度主要受强降水和冬季低温天气的影响。大风强降水天气条件下的事故率要高于一般强降水条件下的事故率,夏季潮湿、闷热天气条件下的事故率要高于一般高温天气条件下的事故率。当高速公路沿线平均日雨量达到中到大雨时,事故率达到高峰;当沿线平均雨量超过20 mm时,事故灾害突发严重。当公路沿线平均高温超过33℃时,事故率突发增长;0~3℃的低温对事故灾害程度影响较大。     

MJO活动对广西6月阶段性降水的影响研究

使用1961~2013年广西80个气象观测站的日降水资料和NOAA OLR、NCEP/NCAR风场、高度场再分析资料。结果表明:当MJO第10位相时广西降水偏多,第1位相时偏少,第2位相时偏多,第3位相时大部偏少的周期性分布特征。原因可能为副热带高压随着MJO向东移动而减弱东移,而且影响着中高纬度地区的波列分布和转播,当MJO对流位于第10、2位相时,形成的槽脊位置有利冷空气南下影响广西,使降水发生;在MJO对流所处位相向东移动过程中,当位于印度洋西部时孟加拉湾水汽输送到达广西最强,随着逐渐向东减弱,当位于第2位相以后,广西上空水汽输送来源转为南海地区。从不同位相来看,当MJO对流位相距离广西稍远时,MJO不同位相时哈德莱上升支的主要区别在上升气流高度略有不同和高空的强上升气流区分布范围不同。     

面向山地地区的区域地质三维模型构建

针对山地地区地质构造复杂的特点,研究现有三维地质模型构建方法。结合已有地质资料,设计从构建剖面框架、绘制剖面到构建地质模型等流程,构建山地地区的区域地质三维模型,实现区域地质三维模型在三维数字城市平台的可视化集成模拟,以及三维场景中对区域地质的管理查询。     

Improvements of One-dimensional Variational Assimilation Algorithm Based on Occultation Technique

Utilizing the occultation data observed by LEO (low earth orbit) satellites, we can invert the profiles of air pressure, water vapor, temperature of terrestrial atmosphere and so on, and they are the valuable data resources for studying the meteorology and atmospheric sciences. The assimilation techniques with the occultation data can effectively improve these profiles of meteorological parameters, thus they can improve the accuracy of current numerical weather forecasting. The greatest difficulty is the huge amount of calculation to enter into the meteorological operational processes for applying the parameter profiles observed by occultation with the method of variational assimilation. With the improvements of the function of one-dimensional variational assimilation and the new design for iterative process, the defects of repeated calculation of the large dimension matrix can be avoided, thereby improving the computational efficiency of variational assimilation. In the discussion of applicability, it is used as the true value of the vectors of the background field plus one white Gaussian noise to test the variational assimilation results on the occultation data of satellite CHAMP.     

Modeling Research of the 27-day Forecast of 10.7 cm Solar Radio Flux (I)

Adopting the autoregressive method for time-series modeling, we have made a study on the medium-term forecast of solar 10.7 cm radio flux (F10.7). The result of forecast experiments and the error analysis indicate that when the solar activity is at a rather low level and the 27-day periodicity of F10.7 is apparent, the autoregressive forecast method has a high accuracy and relatively ideal effectiveness, but when a large active region appears or disappears on the solar dusk, the forecast effectiveness is not ideal. This means that the autoregressive method for the time-series modeling can reflect well the 27-day periodicity of F10.7, and that it has certain applicability for building a mediumterm forecast model of F10.7. By comparing the forecast results in the period from 21th September 2005 to 7th June 2007, it is demonstrated that the accuracy of the autoregressive forecast method is equivalent to that of the forecast made by the American Air Force.     

Zn2+对日本沼虾(Macrobrachium nipponensis)的急性致毒效应

在水温(27.4±1.3)℃条件下,以体长(33.23±1.66)mm、体质量(0.7893±0.1518)g的日本沼虾为实验动物,采用静水停食法开展了Zn2+对日本沼虾的急性毒性实验,并以此为基础,测定了Zn2+不同质量浓度水平下日本沼虾的耗氧率与窒息点.结果表明:(1)Zn2+对日本沼虾的急性致死效应与其呼吸生理代谢受阻密切相关;(2) Zn2+对日本沼虾24h、48h、72h、96h的半致死质量浓度依次为1.493、0.844、0.643和0.464mg/L; (3) Zn2+对日本沼虾昼均、夜均和日均耗氧率均无显著影响的阈值为0.046mg/L,该值为Zn2+对日本沼虾急性毒性的安全质量浓度;(4) Zn2+对日本沼虾产生轻度胁迫和中度胁迫的质量浓度范围分别为0.046-0.064mg/L和0.064-0.082mg/L.     

Heavy metal contamination in western Xiamen Bay sediments and its vicinity, China

Concentrations of selected heavy metals (Cu, Pb, Zn, Cd, Cr, Ni and Fe) in surface sediments from nine sites in western Xiamen Bay and its vicinity were studied in order to understand current metal contamination due to urbanization and economic development in Xiamen, China. The sediment samples were collected in December 2004 and July 2005 respectively in order to examine temporal variations. In this study, we found that heavy metal concentrations in surface sediments sampled in the western Xiamen Bay and adjacent Maluan Bay and Yuandang Lagoon varied from 19 to 97mg kg(-1) for Cu, 45 to 60mg kg(-1) for Pb, 65 to 223mg kg(-1) for Zn, 0.11 to 1.01mg kg(-1) for Cd, 37 to 134mg kg(-1) for Cr, 25 to 65mg kg(-1) for Ni and 3.08 to 4.81% for Fe. Although all metal concentrations in sediments meets Chinese National Standard Criteria for Marine Sediment Quality, both metal enrichment factors (EF) and geoaccumulation index (I(geo)) show that Pb contamination exists in the entire study area and contamination of other metals are also present in some locations depending on the sources, of which sewage outlets and commercial ports are the main sources of contaminants to the area. This study shows that using the sediment quality standard criteria only to assess sediments cannot properly reflect sediment contamination. A multiple approaches should be applied for the sediment quality assessment.     

超长管棚施工技术在山岭隧道软弱围岩中的应用

以黄衢南高速公路阳排尖隧道为例,介绍了大于30 m超长管棚施工技术;并根据现场监控量测数据,对左右洞不同管棚施工技术效果进行对比分析;分析结果显示,一次性施作超长管棚在山岭隧道软弱围岩地段有较好的实用性。