东北地区农业结构转型时期土地利用变化的成因与效应

During the last decade of the 20th century, extensive conversion in agricultural land use took place in Northeast China. The goal of this study is to ascertain its spatial distribution and regional differentiation, determine its causes, and analyze its environmental impact, Especially we attempt to elucidate how institutional constraints have facilitated the change at a time of agrarian restructuring when newly emerging free market was hybridized with the former planned economy. Information on six categories of land use was mapped from interpretation of Landsat TM images recorded in 1990,1995 and 2000. Most of land use changes took place during the first half of the decade, coinciding with abrupt and chaotic changes in government directives. Farmland was changed mainly to woodland,water body and built-up areas while woodland and grassland were converted chiefly to farmland.Spatially, the change from farmland to woodland was restricted to the west of the study area. The change from grassland to farmland took place in the grazing and farming interlocked west. These chaotic and occasionally conflicting changes were largely caused by lack of stability and consistency in agricultural land use policies promulgated. They have exerted adverse impacts on the local environment, including land degradation, increased flooding, and modified climate regime.     

IMPACT OF DIABATIC PROCESSES IN AGCM ON 4-DIMENSIONAL VARIATIONAL DATA ASSIMILATION*

The impact of diabatic processes on 4-dimensional variational data assimilation (4D-Var) was studied using the 1995 version of NCEP's global spectral model with and without full physics.The adjoint was coded manually.A cost function measuring spectral errors of 6-hour forecasts to "observation" (the NCEP reanalysis data) was minimized using the L-BFGS (the limited memory quasi-Newton algorithm developed by Broyden,Fletcher,Goldfard and Shanno) for optimizing parameters and initial conditions.Minimization of the cost function constrained by an adiabatic version of the NCEP global model converged to a minimum with a significant amount of decrease in the value of the cost function.Minimization of the cost function using the diabatic model, however,failed after a few iterations due to discontinuities introduced by physical parameterizations.Examination of the convergence of the cost function in different spectral domains reveals that the large-scale flow is adjusted during the first 10 iterations,in which discontinuous diabatic parameterizations play very little role.The adjustment produced by the minimization gradually moves to relatively smaller scales between 10-20th iterations.During this transition period,discontinuities in the cost function produced by "on-off" switches in the physical parameterizations caused the cost function to stay in a shallow local minimum instead of continuously decreasing toward a deeper minimum. Next,a mixed 4D-Var scheme is tested in which large-scale flows are first adiabatically adjusted to a sufficient level,followed by a diabatic adjustment introduced after 10 to 20 iterations. The mixed 4D-Var produced a closer fit of analysis to observations,with 38% and 41% more decrease in the values of the cost function and the norm of gradient,respectively,than the standard diabatic 4D-Var,while the CPU time is reduced by 21%.The resulting optimal initial conditions improve the short-range forecast skills of 48-hour statistics.The detrimental effect of parameterization discontinuities on minimization was also reduced.     

Relationship between surface pollen assemblages and vegetation in Luonan Basin,Eastern Qinling Mountains,Central China

The catchment of South Luohe River in Central China is an important region for investigating modern pollen-environment relationship, because it is located in the transitional zone between south and north China, an environment which is sensitive to climate changes. In this study, 40 surface samples under ten vegetation types were collected to reveal the relationship between pollen assemblages and vegetation. The results show that the surface pollen assemblages reflect the vegetation quite well. In forest topsoils, the average of arboreal pollen content is greater than 40%, and the Selaginella sinensis spore is high. As to sparse forest grassland and shrub community, the average arboreal pollen is 13.2% and 16.6% respectively, and the shrub pollen is relatively higher than that of grassland samples. The grassland and farmland are characterized by low percentage of tree and shrub pollen (<10% and <1%), and high percentage of herbs (>80%). Pinus, Quercus and some other arboreal pollen can indicate the regional vegetation because of their dispersal ability. Quercus pollen is under-representative and so is Pinus. Artemisia pollen is significantly over-represented, has poor correlation with the plant coverage, and may reflect human disturbance. Gramineae can indicate plant quite well, but with low representation. High content of Chenopodiaceae probably suggests human impact. Predominant Selaginella sinensis can be used as an indicator of forest environment. Cluster analysis and principal components analysis of pollen assemblages can distinguish forest and non-forest vegetation well. The former method is better at separating pine and mixed forests, while the latter is more stable and could better differentiate farmland and other non-forest area. The first axis of PCA mainly reflects the humidity.     

２００６年 ７—９月的台风季节预报试验

运用NCEP/NCAR逐6 h分辨率为25°×25°GRIB资料,用WRF模式采用水平分辨率为27 km×27 km,垂直38层每6 h输出一次的时空分辨率,对2006年7—9月对西太平洋地区台风为主的天气系统进行季节预报试验。综合低层涡度、地面10 m处风速、海平面气压、暖心结构和持续时间对模式输出资料进行台风生成判定和路径追踪。7月1日—9月30日模拟吻合较好的台风、强热带风暴、热带风暴和热带低压的比例为4/9、1/3、0/1和0/1;模拟较差的比例分别为3/9、1/3、1/1和1/1;漏报率分别为2/9、1/3、0/1和0/1。模拟空报了2个台风、9个强热带风暴和3个热带风暴。模拟台风强度偏弱和吻合较差的原因可能与模式的分辨率、〖JP2〗微物理过程参数设置和积分步长有关。空报的台风、强热带风暴可能与模式自身特点、相关海区的特性和热带波动有关。     

天津滨海地区浅层剪切波速与基底构造关系研究

Shear wave velocity is one of the important dynamic characteristics of soil layers and applied widely in aseismic engineering. In this paper, 500 drill logging data are used to make a linear interpolation based on 0.01°×0.01°×1m grid. A shallow 3-D shear wave velocity structure of Tianjin coastal area is obtained. According to the data and geological background, we selected two typical velocity profiles to try to introduce and explain its relationship to basement structure. The results show that the shear wave velocity structure clearly presents the characteristic of stratification and lateral inhomogeneity. Furthermore, the difference of the shear wave structure between tectonic elements is clear and the velocity structure between the two sides of the local or border fault in the Quaternary is disturbed or affected significantly. It intuitively shows that the basement structure and fault activity of this region had good control of sedimentation development and strata formation in the Quaternary period which would have an important effect on engineering seismic and geological condition evaluation.     

地震灾害现场救援搜索策略与搜索方法有关问题的讨论

对地震灾害现场的搜索策略和搜索方法等有关问题进行了讨论，推荐了常用的搜索策略，对不同搜索方法的利弊进行了分析；对搜索方法的使用也做了讨论。通过讨论，文章就搜索分队的组成、任务、装备和部署等提出了建议。     

Delineation of Potential Seismic Source Regions of Moderately Strong Earthquakes Without Seismogenic Tectonics

In this paper,approaches are developed to delineate the potential seismic source regions of moderately strong earthquakes that do not have clear seismotectonic settings.Based on comprehensive analysis of regional tectonic backgrounds and seismicity,the data,such as isoseisrnals,spatial distribution of after shocks,regional tectonic stress field,and focal mechanisms,are employed for the delineation of the potential seismic source regions.The reliability of such potential seismic source regions is also discussed.     

巢湖沉积植硅体组合及中全新世以来的环境演变

尽管以前对眼虫进行过大量的形态发育研究和基于核糖体RNA基因的系统发育分析,但对于株系之间的关系仍然知之甚少．因其形态特征有限并且易变,很难鉴定眼虫的相似种和同种内不同的株．作者利用微卫星DNA指纹图谱,在七株眼虫中扩增了七个微卫星DNA位点,成功扩增的六个微卫星引物都得到了四到八个条带．从微卫星DNA指纹图谱计算得到的相似性系数范围从0．000到0．957．根据相似性系数得到的树状结构,七株眼虫在距离为0．9346处分为三支:E．mutabilis,E．intermedia和E．gracilis．其中,五株E．gracilis分为两组:来自日本的和美国的．不同地区的株得到不同的基因型,并初步分析了它们之间的关系．研究表明七株眼虫根据微卫星DNA指纹图谱被明显区分开．微卫星DNA指纹图谱具有很高的分辨率,是鉴定和区分原生动物相似种和同种内不同株的一种有用的新方法．     

泥岩、页岩声速各向异性及其影响因素分析

在实验室超声波频率下(纵波主频为700kHz、横波为250kHz)对层理发育的页岩和泥岩的各向异性进行了研究,给出了在干燥和油饱和条件下,样品不同方向上纵、横波速度以及各向异性参数随压力的变化规律. 用X 射线衍射和扫描电镜分析了样品中引起各向异性的原因,指出平行于层理定向排列的粘土矿物和微裂隙是使样品显示出强弹性各向异性的内在原因. 随着压力的增高微裂隙逐渐闭合,样品的各向异性程度减弱. 孔隙流体的存在增强了孔隙（裂隙）的刚度,减弱了各向异性随压力增大而减小的趋势.     

尺度理论视角下的“一带一路”战略解读

目前,“一带一路”已成为中国的核心发展战略之一。借鉴尺度重构和尺度政治理论,分析“一带一路”战略的内涵、影响和风险。研究发现“一带一路”战略重构了现有的国家角色和地域形式,催生了以跨国基础设施为基础、以资本和经贸合作为支撑的新尺度。该尺度一方面被国际和国内的资本和权力关系不断重构,另一方面也在重构着现有的权力关系和资本积累过程。还从尺度政治视角出发探讨了“一带一路”战略中的风险因素。在国际层面,中国既面临着基于多边国际关系和地方抵抗的尺度上推力量,也面临着基于旧有边界和尺度化表达的尺度下推因素。在国内,“一带一路”战略既面临着地方政府基于政策争夺和地方保护主义产生的重复建设问题,也存在疆独势力等通过国际联系复杂化地方趋势的风险。为了更好地推行“一带一路”战略,中国必须积极应对这些尺度政治的挑战,深入研究尺度政治的机制和破解之道,努力化解海外投资、国际合作和地方治理中的风险。