Uncertainty analysis of urban sewer system using spatial simulation of radar rainfall fields: New York City case study

The goal of this study is to investigate the uncertainty of an urban sewer system’s response under various rainfall and infrastructure scenarios by applying a recently developed nonparametric copula-based simulation approach to extreme rainfall fields. The approach allows for Monte Carlo simulation of multiple variables with differing marginal distributions and arbitrary dependence structure. The independent and identically distributed daily extreme rainfall events of the corresponding urban area, extracted from nationwide high resolution radar data stage IV, are the inputs of the spatial simulator. The simulated extreme rainfall fields were used to calculate excess runoff using the Natural Resources Conservation Service’s approach. New York City is selected as a case study and the results highlight the importance of preserving the spatial dependence of rainfall fields between the grids, even for simplified hydrologic models. This study estimates the probability of combined sewer overflows under extreme rainfall events and identifies the most effective locations in New York City to install green infrastructure for detaining excess stormwater runoff. The results of this study are beneficial for planners working on stormwater management and the approach is broadly applicable because it does not rely on extensive sewer system information.     

A new method for the statistical simulation of the virtual values of parameters in inverse orbital dynamics problems

A Monte Carlo-type method for simulating virtual values of the parameters in inverse orbital dynamics problems for highly nonlinear cases is proposed. The method is based on imitating Fisher’s statistics employed to specify the confidence region, and is implemented by solving repeatedly nonlinear least-squares problems with various samples of simulated observations obtainable by suitable random variations.     

The differential cosmic ray energy flux in the light of an ultrarelativistic generalized Lorentzian thermodynamics

The ultrarelativistic generalized Lorentzian quasi-equilibrium thermodynamic energy distribution is tentatively applied to the energy spectrum of galactic cosmic ray fluxes. It is found that the inferred power law slopes contain a component which evolves with cosmic ray energy in steps of thirds, resembling the sequence of structure functions in fully developed Kolmogorov turbulence. Within the generalized thermodynamics the chemical potential is estimated from the deviation of the fluxes at decreasing energy, presumably throwing light on the cosmic ray acceleration mechanism. A relation between involved turbulent volumina and structure functions is obtained. The conclusions drawn hold only within the realm of applicability of thermodynamics to cosmic ray spectra.     

Strong, Variable Circular Polarization in PKS 1519–273

It is found that velocity shear enables the extraction of kinetic energy from the background flow by Dust-Acoustic waves. It is also shown that the velocity shear leads to the appearance of a new mode of the dust particles collective behaviour, called shear dust vortices. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Analysis of the August 7, 1972 white light flare: Light curves and correlation with hard X-rays

Cinematic, photometric observations of the 3B flare of August 7, 1972 are described in detail. The time resolution was 2 s; the spatial resolution was 1–2″. Flare continuum emissivity at 4950 Å and at 5900 Å correlated closely in time with the 60–100 keV non-thermal X-ray burst intensity. The observed peak emissivity was 1.5 × 10¹⁰ erg cm^?2 s^?1 and the total flare energy in the 3900–6900 Å range was ～10³⁰ erg. From the close temporal correspondence and from the small distance (3″) separating the layers where the visible emission and the X-rays arose, it is argued that the hard X-ray source must have had the same silhouette as the white light flare and that the emission patches had cross-sections of 3–5″. There was also a correlation between the location of the most intense visible emissions near sunspots and the intensity and polarization of the 9.4 GHz radio emission. The flare appeared to show at least three distinct particle acceleration phases: one, occurring at a stationary source and associated with proton acceleration gave a very bluish continuum and reached peak intensity at ～ 1522 UT. At 1523 UT, a faint wave spread out at 40 km s^?1 from flare center. The spectrum of the wave was nearly flat in the range 4950–5900 Å. Association of the wave with a slow drift of the microwave emission peak to lower frequencies and with a softening of the X-ray spectrum is interpreted to mean that the particle acceleration process weakened while the region of acceleration expanded. The observations are interpreted with the aid of the flare models of Brown to mean that the same beam of non-thermal electrons that was responsible for the hard X-ray bremsstrahlung also caused the heating of the lower chromosphere that produced the white light flare.     

Evaluating local population dynamics of the American lobster,Homarus americanus,with trap‐based mark‐recapture methods and seabed mapping

Seabed mapping, spatially referenced trapping, and mark‐recapture methods have all been useful tools in ecological studies of lobsters and other benthic animals. Here we integrate the three methods to evaluate local population dynamics and movements of American lobsters, Homarus americanus, in coastal fishing grounds in Maine, United States. The study was conducted on five study areas of different size, and used two different sampling protocols. At one site (1 km² in area) we used a monthly mark‐recapture sampling interval over a 6‐month period, only tagging a subsample of the catch. At four smaller sites (0.3 km²) we used a shorter‐term approach, sampling at 3–4‐day intervals for a 2‐week duration, tagging the entire catch. Tagging data were analysed with a modified Jolly‐Seber model adapted for continuous sampling to estimate population abundance, gains (immigration), and losses (emigration and mortality). Side‐scan sonar surveys of the seabed combined with diver‐based population surveys, stratified by substrate type, provided an independent comparison to mark‐recapture‐based estimates of abundance over the same areas. Spatial referencing of trap catch also allowed us to relate catch rates and lobster movements directly to seabed features. The longer‐term tagging data on the larger study area provided abundance estimates that were more consistent with the diver observations, and estimates of gains and losses statistically more robust, than those derived from the shorter‐term effort on the smaller sites. The flux of lobsters followed the well known seasonal movements on these fishing grounds, with gains and losses from the larger study area ranging over 1000 individuals per day, and an estimated mid‐summer peak density of >65 000 lobsters per km² (individuals >50 mm carapace length). This approach may lend itself to broader application with the American lobster.     

Vertical distribution of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in the Western Mediterranean Sea in relation to the hydrological characteristics

Vertical profiles of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) from eight hydrological stations in the Tyrrhenian Sea, Sardinia Channel and Algerian Sea, are reported. DOC exhibits concentrations ranging from 58 to 88 μM in surface water, 43–57 μM in the intermediate layer and 49–63 μM in deep waters. The assessment of the hydrological characteristics allows different water masses in the study area to be identified; moreover, different hydrological processes are observed in the Tyrrhenian and Algerian basins. DOC exhibits different values in the different water masses. The lowest DOC concentrations (43–46 μM) were found in the Tyrrhenian Levantine Intermediate Water (LIW). Correlations between DOC and apparent oxygen utilization (AOU), investigated within each water mass, exhibit different behaviors in the intermediate and deep waters, suggesting the occurrence of different processes of oxygen consumption in the different water masses.     

Glaciation and Permafrost Dynamics on the Antarctic Peninsula in the 21st Century

The results of mass balance observations of the ice dome and measurements of the active layer thickness on the Fildes Peninsula, King George (Waterloo) Island, Western Antarctica are presented for the period of 2007 to 2019. The dynamics of the main meteorological parameters affecting the active layer thickness is determined. The numerical experiments based on the mathematical model are performed to determine the effects of various parameters on the active layer thickness. The calculated and measured values of the active layer thickness are compared. The thermal instability of permafrost in the study area in some years with high (above the means) summer air temperature is demonstrated. The climate cooling which started in the region in the recent years has increased the number of years with the positive ice mass balance. However, the positive ice mass balance has not yet become a dominant factor against a background of the negative balance in the previous years.     

Evaluation of extreme temperature events in northern Spain based on process control charts

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Extreme climate events have recently attracted the attention of a growing number of researchers because these events impose a large cost on agriculture and...