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81.
城市空气质量数值预报的不确定性与可预报性 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
主要综述了数据误差、随机误差和模式物理误差所造成的城市空气质量数值预报的不确定性,简要介绍分析预报不确定性的统计方法。并对由内在随机性和外在误差引起的可预报性问题进行了分析讨论 相似文献
82.
A procedure is suggested for direct determination of Sr in seawater using diluted seawater sample and background emission correction by FES. The standard deviation for 8 ppm Sr is better then 2 %, and the recovery of the added Sr is 97-105 %. 相似文献
83.
根据天山中段8套四分量钻孔应变仪观测资料,利用自洽方程计算应变观测的信度,用信度指标检验数据的可靠性,从而进一步用自洽方程计算实际各元件灵敏度的相对大小,并用相对标定的结果,对观测数据进行校正。结果表明:①石场、巴仑台、巴音沟、雀儿沟、榆树沟和库米什台经过校正后,数据观测信度有了明显提升,其中石场和雀儿沟台的数据信度最高;②库米什台校正前数据观测信度较高,因个别“坏点”影响,校正后,观测信度反而下降;③小泉沟和新源台数据信度较低,存在从自洽到失洽的情况,分析认为这可能与系统自身存在问题有关,也有可能是前兆异常,有待进一步研究。 相似文献
84.
为探究旋转地震动在大跨度悬索桥中的应用,首先,从线弹性理论和功率谱角度基于随机振动理论提出了6维地震动加速度功率谱模型;其次,基于MATLAB编制旋转地震动人工地震合成程序,从反应谱角度对合成地震动进行了正确性验证和拟合精度迭代调整;最后,分析了旋转地震动与地震动入射角对桥梁结构地震响应的影响。研究表明:人工合成的地震动平动分量反应谱与实测地震动的平动分量反应谱吻合度较高;六维地震动的主梁跨中竖向位移越是三维平动地震动的3倍,而主缆轴力峰值接近2.25E+05kN,约是三维平动地震动的1.3倍;旋转地震动和地震动入射角将会加大桥梁结构的位移响应和内力响应,且会减小塔底截面和桩最不利截面的安全性。 相似文献
85.
Origin and Evolution of Aquitard Porewater in the Western Coastal Plain of Bohai Bay,China 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2 下载免费PDF全文
High‐salinity paleowater from low‐permeability aquitards in coastal areas can be a major threat to groundwater resources; however, such water has rarely been studied. The chemical and isotopic compositions of porewater extracted from a 200‐m‐thick Quaternary sedimentary sequence in the western coastal plain of Bohai Bay, China, were analyzed to investigate the salinity origin and chemical evolution of porewater in aquitards. Porewater samples derived at depths shallower than 32 m are characterized by Cl‐Na type saline water (total dissolved solids [TDS], 10.9–84.3 g/L), whereas those at depths greater than 32 m comprise Cl·SO4‐Na type brackish water (TDS, 2.2–6.3 g/L). Saline porewater is interpreted as evaporated seawater prior to halite saturation, as evidenced by Cl‐Br relationships. Although substantial dilution of saline porewater with meteoric water is supported by a wider Cl? range and δ2H‐δ18O covariance, the original marine waters were not completely flushed out. The deeper brackish porewater is determined to be a mixture of fresher porewater and brine groundwater and had a component of old brine of less than 10%, as indicated by a mixing model defined using δ2H and Cl? tracers. Porewater δ2H‐δ18O relationships and negative deuterium excess ranging from ?25.9‰ to ?2.9‰ indicate the existence of an arid climate since Late Pleistocene in Tianjin Plain. The aquitard porewaters were chemically modified through water‐rock interactions due to the long residence time. 相似文献
86.
裂缝诱导的双相具有水平对称轴的横向各向同性(HTI)介质模型是由一组平行排列的垂直裂缝嵌入到统计各向同性的流体饱和多孔隙岩石中而组成的,它综合考虑了裂缝型储层岩石的各向异性和孔隙性.高精度的地震波场数值模拟技术是研究该介质中地震波传播规律的主要方法.本文结合错格伪谱法和时间分裂法,求解描述该介质中地震波传播的一阶速度-应力方程.模拟了单层和双层模型中的地震波场,并对其进行了特征分析.研究结果表明:错格伪谱法能有效消除标准网格伪谱法波场模拟结果中出现的数值伪影现象,与时间分裂法结合能够获得稳定的、高精度的模拟结果;裂缝诱导双相HTI介质中的地震波场兼具裂缝各向异性介质和双相介质中传播的地震波的波场特征. 相似文献
87.
A probability-based analytical model for predicting the seismic residual deformation of bilinear single-degreeof-freedom(SDOF) systems with a kinematic/Takeda hysteretic model is proposed based on a statistical analysis of the nonlinear time history response,and the proposed model explicitly incorporates the influence of record-to-record variability.In addition,the influence of primary parameters such as the natural vibration period,relative yield force coefficient,stiffness ratio and peak groun... 相似文献
88.
89.
A large‐scale survey for offshore aggregates is carried out on the northern shelf of the East China Sea. Results show that most of them are directly exposed in the Yangtze Shoal and the linear sand ridges system at water depths 25–55 m and 60–120 m, respectively. The components of these deposits belong to fine aggregates in terms of the fineness modulus. The potential resources are as high as 147.8 × 1012 kg for the Yangtze Shoal yet only 36.68 × 1012 kg for the sand ridges area, respectively. A preliminary feasibility analysis suggests that the Yangtze Shoal is suitable for dredging under the present conditions of technology and economy. 相似文献
90.
Zeng Jingjing Qu Jiansheng Pei Huijuan Dong Liping Liao Qin Liu Yanfei Zhang Zhiqiang 《地球科学进展》2015,30(11):1210-1217
The international climate change negotiation has been carried out over 20 years. The issue of climate change has shifted from a scientific question into a complex political matter which is related to the sustainable development of mankind. Based on the overview of major processes and stages of international climate conferences, this paper analyzed the key measures that major countries have taken to address climate change, as well as the primary tasks of Paris climate conference and recent international actions. The recent international climate policy issues were also analyzed in order to provide suggestions for China’s activel participation in the development of a new round of international climate change system. 相似文献