On the dependence of ENSO simulation on the coupled model mean state

Systematic model error remains a difficult problem for seasonal forecasting and climate predictions. An error in the mean state could affect the variability of the system. In this paper, we investigate the impact of the mean state on the properties of ENSO. A set of coupled decadal integrations have been conducted, where the mean state and its seasonal cycle have been modified by applying flux correction to the momentum-flux and a combination of heat and momentum fluxes. It is shown that correcting the mean state and the seasonal cycle improves the amplitude of SST inter-annual variability and also the penetration of the ENSO signal into the troposphere and the spatial distribution of the ENSO teleconnections are improved. An analysis of a multivariate PDF of ENSO shows clearly that the flux correction affects the mean, variance, skewness and tails of the distribution. The changes in the tails of the distribution are particularly noticeable in the case of precipitation, showing that without the flux correction the model is unable to reproduce the frequency of large events. For the inter-annual variability the momentum-flux correction alone has a large impact, while the additional heat-flux correction is important for the teleconnections. These results suggest that the current forecasts practices of removing the forecast bias a-posteriori or anomaly initialisation are by no means optimal, since they can not deal with the strong nonlinear interactions. A consequence of the results presented here is that the predictability on annual time-ranges could be higher than currently achieved. Whether or not the correction of the model mean state by some sort of flux correction leads to better forecasts needs to be addressed. In any case, flux correction may be a powerful tool for diagnosing coupled model errors and predictability studies.     

Metamorphic reactions in dry and aluminous granulites: a Perple_X <Emphasis Type="Italic">P–T</Emphasis> pseudosection analysis of the influence of effective reaction volume

In high-Mg, Al metapelites, monophase sapphirine corona occur around spinel–corundum aggregates in monomineralic cordierite layers, and bi-phase orthopyroxene–sillimanite aggregates replace locally warped sapphirine in polygonized cordierite aggregates. P–T phase topologies computed (Perple_X software) using compositions of cordierite-rich layers that host the reaction textures did not match the assemblages for the discontinuous reactions spinel + corundum + cordierite → sapphirine and sapphirine + cordierite → orthopyroxene + sillimanite. Instead, the reaction assemblages were reproduced using P–T pseudosection analysis for micro-domain reaction volumes estimated from compositions of product phases in the volume proportion they occur. The results are consistent with known phase relations deduced using Schreinmakers P–T grids. Apparently, the compositions of cordierite-rich layers that hosted the reaction textures were inadequate chemical proxies for determining P–T–X relations of phase-boundary controlled reactions influenced by compositions of the nearest-neighbor minerals in the proportion they react (effective composition), and not in the proportion they existed in the layer/bulk rock. In other words, P–T–X phase topologies and reconstructed P–T paths in dry and aluminous rocks may be best understood by thermodynamic modeling of reactions using effective reaction volume compositions rather than the bulk composition of the rock or the mineralogical layer that host the reaction textures.     

Three-dimensional MHD simulation of interplanetary magnetic field changes at 1 AU as a consequence of simulated solar flares

A fully three-dimensional (3D), time-dependent, MHD interplanetary global model (3D IGM) has been used, for the first time, to study the relationship between different forms of solar activity and transient variations of the north-south component, B_z, of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) at 1 AU. One form of solar activity, the flare, is simulated by using a pressure pulse at different locations near the solar surface and observing the simulated IMF evolution of B (=-B_z) at 1 AU. Results show that, for a given pressure pulse, the orientation of the corresponding transient variation of B_z has a strong relationship to the location of the pressure pulse and the initial conditions of the IMF. Two initial IMF conditions are considered: a unipolar Archimedean spiral with outward polarity and a flat heliospheric current sheet (HCS) with outward polarity in the northern hemisphere and which gradually reverses polarity in the solar equatorial plane to inward polarity in the southern heliospheric hemisphere. The wave guide effect of the HCS is also demonstrated.     

Geophysical applications of heat and mass transfer in turbulent pipe flow

The theory of heat and mass transfer in turbulent pipe flow is applied to a semi-infinite moist-walled cylindrical pipe to determine the longitudinal distributions of both temperature and moisture content as functions of external conditions, pipe radius and wall temperature, and flow velocity. Since many cave and mine passages approximate this model, the results are directly applicable to cave microclimate studies and mine ventilation problems. The results are found to agree well with previously published microclimate observations. The theory is also applicable to water flow in free-flow karst aquifers; specifically to the study of temperature variations and of solution kinetics under turbulent flow conditions.     

Stratified unbounded flow past of obstacles

We studied the surface perturbations of a two-layer ideal fluid induced by a flow past a submerged obstacle (simulated by a point dipole) in the vicinity of the density-jump layer. It is shown that the formation of two different types of surface waves is possible behind the flowed past obstacle in the real conditions of the open sea. The comparison of the amplitudes of the surface perturbations induced by the obstacle located above and below the density jump revealed their significant differences, which seems to be important for the use of this effect in practical problems.     

Unstable plasma irregular structures in the topside ionosphere and spread-<Emphasis Type="Italic">F</Emphasis>

The results of the Cosmos-900 satellite observ ations of plasma density inhomogeneities in the geomagnetic equator region and the longitudinal distributions of the equatorial spread-F, according to the Intercosmos-19 satellite data are presented. It is show n that the dependence of radiosignal propagation in the ionosphere on geophysical parameters is related to development of the electrostatic instability of the inhomo-geneous ionospheric plasma. The longitudinal dependence of the spread-F, can reflect the influence of the energetic sources, located outside the ionospheric layer that scatters a radio pulse, on the ionosphere. The manifestation of the longitudinal effect in the equatorial spread-F, in the Atlantic region can be explained by the influence of the cone instability on the plasma electrodynamics in the South Atlantic geomagnetic anomaly.     

GGR Biennial Review: Atomic Absorption,Inductively Coupled Plasma-Atomic Emission Spectrometry,Neutron Activation Analysis and X-Ray Fluorescence Spectrometry Review for 2008–2009

This review describes developments major and in trace element determination using atomic absorption spectroscopy (AAS), inductively coupled plasma-atomic emission spectrometry (ICP-AES), instrumental neutron activation analysis (INAA), and X-ray fluorescence (XRF) spectrometry that were reported in 2008 and 2009. Publication levels were comparable to those of previous years, except for XRF which showed an increase in the number of articles published in the past 2 years. In terms of number of publications and impact, the most active field was AAS, while INAA was the least active. As expected for well-established and mature methods, novel developments for all four analytical techniques were relatively sparse. For AAS, the most notable publications concerned developments in sample introduction, particularly focussing on solid samples, increasing analyte sensitivity, and higher sample throughput. For ICP-AES, publication of developments in sample introduction, remediation of matrix effects and calibration continues. Compared with past years, there was a clear focus on sample preconcentration methods, but very few publications reporting new hyphenated speciation methods. For INAA, there were several publications exploring the accuracy and robustness of the method, as well as the requirements for INAA to meet criteria for a primary method of measurement. Two other related techniques, delayed neutron activation analysis, and prompt gamma activation analysis, were also described. Hyphenated XRF techniques showed interesting developments in enabling XRF and XRD analysis on the same spot, and further work characterising and calibrating three-dimensional micro-XRF shows promising results for investigating sample heterogeneity.     

Eddy covariance imaging of diffuse volcanic CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> emissions at Mammoth Mountain,CA, USA

Use of eddy covariance (EC) techniques to map the spatial distribution of diffuse volcanic CO₂ fluxes and quantify CO₂ emission rate was tested at the Horseshoe Lake tree-kill area on Mammoth Mountain, California, USA. EC measurements of CO₂ flux were made during September–October 2010 and ranged from 85 to 1,766 g m⁻² day⁻¹. Comparative maps of soil CO₂ flux were simulated and CO₂ emission rates estimated from three accumulation chamber (AC) CO₂ flux surveys. Least-squares inversion of measured eddy covariance CO₂ fluxes and corresponding modeled source weight functions recovered 58–77% of the CO₂ emission rates estimated based on simulated AC soil CO₂ fluxes. Spatial distributions of modeled surface CO₂ fluxes based on EC and AC observations showed moderate to good correspondence (R ² = 0.36 to 0.70). Results provide a framework for automated monitoring of volcanic CO₂ emissions over relatively large areas.