Comparison of results from several AOGCMs for global and regional sea-level change 1900–2100

 Sea-level rise is an important aspect of climate change because of its impact on society and ecosystems. Here we present an intercomparison of results from ten coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) for sea-level changes simulated for the twentieth century and projected to occur during the twenty first century in experiments following scenario IS92a for greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols. The model results suggest that the rate of sea-level rise due to thermal expansion of sea water has increased during the twentieth century, but the small set of tide gauges with long records might not be adequate to detect this acceleration. The rate of sea-level rise due to thermal expansion continues to increase throughout the twenty first century, and the projected total is consequently larger than in the twentieth century; for 1990–2090 it amounts to 0.20–0.37 m. This wide range results from systematic uncertainty in modelling of climate change and of heat uptake by the ocean. The AOGCMs agree that sea-level rise is expected to be geographically non-uniform, with some regions experiencing as much as twice the global average, and others practically zero, but they do not agree about the geographical pattern. The lack of agreement indicates that we cannot currently have confidence in projections of local sea-level changes, and reveals a need for detailed analysis and intercomparison in order to understand and reduce the disagreements. Received: 1 September 2000 / Accepted: 20 April 2001     

Multiple-source localization using GPS technology and receivedarrival time structure analysis in an air-deployed system

An efficient and robust method has been developed to locate multiple impulsive sources in an ocean environment. Global position system (GPS) receivers were installed on sonobuoys to obtain their locations within a few meters of accuracy. A sonobuoy field was deployed in a ring-type pattern. Charges were then set off at arbitrary locations within the ring, High-resolution plots were used to obtain direct path and/or first bottom bounce arrivals on each buoy. A model grid of arrival times was constructed, corresponding to the dimensions of the buoy field. A ray model previously developed here at the Applied Research Laboratories at the University of Texas at Austin (ARL:UT) was used to obtain model travel times. The minimum value of the least-square-type error between the real arrival times and the modeled travel times resulted in an unambiguous location of the source, within the limits of the grid spacing chosen. This value was calculated by picking one receiver as the reference and then summing the timing errors of the remaining receivers relative to the reference. Successive iterations with finer grid spacings result in source localization within the accuracy of the buoy locations. The localization routine was extended by allowing permutations of the pulse arrivals on each buoy to account for multiple sources closely separated in time and/or space. An automated correlation technique is presented as an alternative to the leading edge-detection method used here for obtaining relative arrival times. Two proof-of-concept experiments were performed and some results of data obtained at Lake Travis and the Gulf of Mexico are presented     

High-temperature geothermal reservoir possibilities in Hungary

Theoretical studies have shown the possibility of high-temperature ('high enthalpy') geothermal reservoirs in the pre-Tertiary rocks at 4–5 km depth range within the Pannonian Basin. This expectation was proven by the hotwater/steam blowout of Fábiánsebestyén-4 borehole (16.12.85–31.1.86). Exploration efforts carried out during 1987–88 in the broad vicinity of the borehole proved that reservoirs of this type can be found with the combination of seismic reflection, silica-thermometry and magnetotelluric sounding methods. Deliberate prospection should be continued in all suitable areas within the basin, since high enthalpy reservoirs promise profitable operation of geothermal power stations.     

Trace-element contents and cathodoluminescence of “trapiche” rubies from Mong Hsu, Myanmar (Burma): geological significance

Summary ?Mong Hsu rubies of the “trapiche” type are sporadically seen in the gem market. However, they have never been described in the field. The study of the nature of solid inclusions, the variation of trace-element contents, as well as the cathodoluminescence behaviour of six “trapiche” rubies permit the conclusion that these rubies crystallised in the same geological environment (marble-type deposit) as the normal rubies from Mong Hsu: (1) Cr and V are the main chromophorous elements in both ruby types; they act, together with Ti, as activators or quenchers for cathodoluminescence; (2) calcite, dolomite, rutile, mica, diaspore, apatite, chlorite, and feldspar are solid inclusions found in both ruby types; (3) the presence of bastn?site in trapiche ruby and fluorite in non-trapiche ruby indicates the circulation of F-bearing fluids during ruby deposition; (4) the distribution of trace-element contents in the crystal is similar for both ruby types. In the Cr₂O₃ vs. Fe₂O₃ and Cr₂O₃ vs. Fe₂O₃/TiO₂ diagrams, the population fields of Mong Hsu “trapiche” and non-“trapiche” rubies overlap. They are distinct from those of rubies and sapphires hosted in basalts from South-east Asia. Received October 30, 2001; revised version accepted March 25, 2002     

A 2000-YEAR CONTEXT FOR MODERN CLIMATE CHANGE

ABSTRACT. Although considerable attention has been paid to the record of temperature change over the last few centuries, the range and rate of change of atmospheric circulation and hydrology remain elusive. Here, eight latitudinally well-distributed (pole-equator-pole), highly resolved (annual to decadal) climate proxy records are presented that demonstrate major changes in these variables over the last 2000 years. A comparison between atmospheric ¹⁴C and these changes in climate demonstrates a first-order relationship between a variable Sun and climate. The relationship is seen on a global scale.     

The effect of phase-shifter errors on the performance of an antenna-array beamformer

The paper considers the random phase errors in the phase shifters which are used in an antenna array to steer the beam in the look direction, and analyzes the effect of these errors on the performance of the optimal processor which maximizes the output SNR by deriving the expressions for the output signal power, residual interference power, output SNR, and the array gain as a function of the variance of these errors. The paper also considers the phase quantization error which arises in the digital phase shifters and shows how the performance of the optimal processor depends on the number of bits of the digital phase shifters.     

Chronology and evolution of the northern Iceland Plateau

New aeromagnetic data, K-Ar age determinations of dredged marine igneous rocks, as well as other geophysical evidence have shed light on the chronology, nature and evolution of the northern Iceland Plateau. Correspondence between seismic refraction profiles taken on the Jan Mayen Ridge and westward through Jan Mayen Island, suppressed aeromagnetic anomalies, earthquake surface wave studies, and ages of dredged igneous rocks suggest these strata may form an extended region of thickened crust, possibly of Caledonian age, extending westward toward the Kolbeinsey Ridge and northwest to the south wall of the Jan Mayen Fracture Zone.