Reasoning about climate uncertainty

This paper argues that the IPCC has oversimplified the issue of uncertainty in its Assessment Reports, which can lead to misleading overconfidence. A concerted effort by the IPCC is needed to identify better ways of framing the climate change problem, explore and characterize uncertainty, reason about uncertainty in the context of evidence-based logical hierarchies, and eliminate bias from the consensus building process itself.     

The distribution of total and electrochemically available copper in the northwestern atlantic ocean

Copper in a series of samples from the northwestern Atlantic has been determined by anodic stripping voltammetry (ASV) and atomic absorption spectrometry after preconcentration by cobalt—APDC coprecipitation. Samples from a transect across the continental shelf directly off the New York Bight showed a linear relationship between total copper and salinity (31–34‰) and less than 5% of the total copper was detectable by ASV. A slope water station showed less than 9% of the total copper to be ASV detectable in the upper 780m, below which the ASV detectable copper increased to 70% at 3000 m. The Sargasso Sea profiles showed less than 7% ASV detectable copper in the upper 150 m; the fraction of the total copper detected by ASV increased to about 80% of the total copper at greater depths. The reduced availability of copper to the ASV measurement in coastal waters and open ocean surface waters appears to be related to recent contact with waters where biological productivity occurs.     

Sedimentary processes and trace metal contaminants in the buccaneer oil/gas field,northwestern gulf of Mexico

Sediments are the ultimate sink for contaminants in the marine environment, and physical processes of sedimentation influence the distribution and accumulation of these contaminants. Evaluation of contaminant levels in sediments is one approach to assessing environmental impact; data interpretation depends on consideration of sediment texture and mineralogy, however, which profoundly influence chemical composition. In this study, comparison of potentially contaminated sediments from the production field with control populations was done only within the context of similar (as to texture and organic carbon and carbonate content) sample groups as determined by cluster analysis. Ba, Cd, and Sr are identified as contaminants. Supported by the identification of a well-crystallized expandable clay—possibly bentonite—drilling fluids are a potential source of Ba. Ba and Sr may be unnaturally high because of their abundance in discharged produced formation waters, but may also be naturally controlled by the unique faunal assemblage associated with the structures. Cd is probably derived from corrosion of the structures and assorted debris on the seafloor. In general, contamination is limited to an area within 100 m of the platforms. Furthermore, substantial erosion around platforms has probably effectively removed and dispersed the bulk of the contaminants introduced into the marine environment by the offshore exploration/production operations.     

Autochthonous inheritance of zircon through Cretaceous partial melting of Carboniferous plutons: the Arthur River Complex,Fiordland, New Zealand

TIMS and SHRIMP U–Pb analyses of zircons from Milford Orthogneiss metadiorite (P = 1–1.4 GPa; T ≥ 750°C) of the Arthur River Complex of northern Fiordland reveal a bimodal age pattern. Zircons are predominantly either Paleozoic (357.0 ± 4.2 Ma) and prismatic with oscillatory zoning, or Cretaceous (133.9 ± 1.8 Ma) and ovoid with sector or patchy zoning. The younger age component is not observed overgrowing older grains. Most grains of both ages are overgrown by younger Cretaceous (~120 Ma) metamorphic zircon with very low U and Th/U (0.01). We interpret the bimodal ages as indicating initial igneous emplacement and crystallisation of a dioritic protolith pluton at ~357 Ma, followed by Early Cretaceous granulite-facies metamorphism at ~134 Ma, during which a significant fraction (~60%) of the zircon grains dissolved, and subsequently reprecipitated, effectively in situ, in partial melt pockets. The remaining ~40% of original Paleozoic grains were apparently not in contact with the partial melt, remained intact, and show only slight degrees of Pb loss. Sector zoning of the Cretaceous grains discounts their origin by solid state recrystallisation of Paleozoic grains. The alternative explanation—that the Paleozoic component represents a 40% inherited component in an Early Cretaceous transgressive dioritic magma—is considered less likely given the relatively high solubility of zircon in magma of this composition, the absence of 134 Ma overgrowths, the single discrete age of the older component, equivalent time-integrated ¹⁷⁷Hf/¹⁷⁶Hf compositions of both age groups, and the absence of the Cambrian-Proterozoic detrital zircon that dominates regional Cambro-Ordovician metasedimentary populations. Similar bimodal Carboniferous-Early Cretaceous age distributions are characteristic of the wider Arthur River Complex; 8 of 12 previously dated dioritic samples have a Paleozoic component averaging 51%. Furthermore, the age and chemical suite affinity of these and several more felsic rocks can be matched with those of the relatively unmetamorphosed Carboniferous plutonic terrane along the strike of the Mesozoic margin in southern Fiordland, also supporting the in situ derivation of the Carboniferous “inherited” component.     

Diatoms and aquatic palynomorphs in surface sediments of the White Sea bays as indicators of sedimentation in marginal filters of rivers

Diatom algae, aquatic palynomorphs, and the grain-size of surface sediments from bays of the White Sea were investigated in a program dedicated to the study of marginal filters (MF) in the Severnaya Dvina, Onega, and Kem rivers. Three microalgal assemblages are established in surface sediments, which replace each other successively with distance from river mouths and are characterized by a gradual decrease in a share of freshwater species of diatoms and Chlorophyceae algae, significantly varying concentrations of marine diatoms and dinocysts due to changes in water salinity, grain-size composition of sediments, quantitative distribution of suspended particulate matter (SPM), and water productivity at different marginal filter stages.     

The Metric Impact of Reduction Optics in Digital Cameras

The recently released Nikon E2 still video camera incorporates reduction optics technology which enables a full conventional 35mm image to be recorded on a 2/3 inch (17mm) CCD array. This paper investigates the metric impact of reduction optics through application of the technique of multisensor system self-calibration. The influence of the JPEG image compression facility contained within the E2 is also assessed in an overall evaluation of the camera for vision metrology applications which demand relatively high object point triangulation accuracies.     

Mineralogy and geochemistry of lateritic soil profiles in Kerala, India

Lateritic soils near Calicut, Kerala, contain halloysite of intermediate hydration, kaolinite, goethite, gibbsite and quartz. The presence of halloysite is responsible for relatively high plasticity and cation-exchange capacity. Fe-hydroxide colloids along with halloysite contribute to significant phosphate uptake by this soil. Composition of local groundwater is consistent with weathering of sodic plagioclase to gibbsite, kaolinite and metastable halloysite.     

Development and verification of the comprehensive model for physical properties of hydrate sediment

Natural gas hydrate is widely distributed all over the world and may be a potential resource in the near future, whereas hydrate dissociation during the development affects wellbore stability and drilling safety. However, the present modeling of hydrate reservoir parameters ignored the influence of effective stress and only considered the hydrate saturation. In this paper, a series of stress sensitivity experiments for the unconsolidated sandstone were carried out, and the influence of mean effective stress on physical parameters was obtained; a comprehensive model for the physical parameters of hydrate reservoir was developed subsequently. With the help of ABAQUS finite element software, the established comprehensive model was verified by the use of the wellbore stability numerical model of hydrate reservoir. The verification results show that ignoring the effect of mean effective stress on the parameters of hydrate formation aggravates the invasion of drilling fluid into the hydrate formation. Besides, ignoring the stress sensitivity of reservoir physical parameters will underestimate the wellbore instability during hydrate drilling, which will be a threat to the safety of gas hydrate drilling. At the end of the drilling operation, the maximum plastic strain of the model for considering and not considering stress sensitivity was 0.0145 and 0.0138, respectively. Therefore, the established comprehensive model will provide a theoretical support for accurately predicting the engineering geological disasters in hydrate development process.     

Investigation on strength and stability of jointed rock mass using three‐dimensional numerical manifold method

This paper proposes a numerical model for jointed rock masses within the 3‐D numerical manifold method (NMM) framework equipped with a customized contact algorithm. The strength of rock sample containing a few sets of discontinuities is first investigated. The results of models with simple geometries are compared with the available analytical solutions to verify the developed computer code, whereas models with complex geometries are simulated to better understand the fundamental behavior and failure mechanism of jointed rock mass. Furthermore, the stability of jointed rock mass in an underground excavation is studied, where rock failure process is determined by the 3‐D NMM simulation. The simulation results provide valuable guidance on excavation process design and stabilization design in rock engineering practice. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The evolution of slump-induced destruction of Kukuy Griva slope (Lake Baikal) revealed on the base of the data of seismic and acoustic surveys

As a result of careful interpretation of the data of recent seismo-acoustic surveys, two major seismic complexes were identified in the structure of the upper sedimentary section of the north-western slope of Kukuy Griva (ridge). They are composed of several inner seismo-facies, which are very characteristic and separated with well-expressed regional reflector. Seismic and acoustic data revealed evidences of numerous landslide processes which were different in age and peculiarities of manifestation. For the first time, detailed schemes of seismo-facies distribution are compiled for major seismic complexes at the area. The boundary between seismic complexes is dated as 150 thousands years. It is shown that sliding was more intensive during Late Pleistocene and Holocene, reflecting activation of tectonic movements in this part of Baikal rift system.