Models in geography revisited

Agent based models (ABMs) have many applications, and illustrate a rapidly developing field of enquiry, spanning both the physical-mathematical and human-social sciences. ABMs are seen as most appropriate in situations where decisions or actions are distributed around particular locations, and in which structure is viewed as emergent from the interaction between individuals. ABMs may be used either as representational devices, to reproduce the patterns observed or desired in the system of interest, or as foundational tools contributing to the development of social or economic theory. The role and status of models and modelling is itself an instantiation of a wider debate concerning representation and explanation. Today, a case can be made that the nature of explanation and the use of scientific interpretation reflect much less definite and exclusive positions and permit more diverse approaches than hitherto. The underlying proposition of this commentary is, therefore, that the time is right for a positive application of ABMs within the discipline of geography, and for a rediscovery and reappraisal of the richness and depth of insight in the model-building enterprise more generally. First, the context for ABM development and application is set with reference to the agency-structure debate. Second, some aspects of the heritage of models in geography is presented, based upon reviews of two benchmark publications bearing that title. Next, some of the most significant characteristics, uses, potentials and limitations of ABMs, are reviewed. Finally, some constructive ways forward are suggested, as informed by theory and method from the interpretative social sciences.     

Models of natural and human dynamics in forest landscapes: Cross-site and cross-cultural synthesis

We synthesize the study of coupled natural and human systems across sites and cultures through a process of simplification and abstraction based on multiple dimensions of human-nature connectedness: satisfaction of basic needs, psycho-cultural connectedness and regulation of use of natural resources. We thus provide both a place-based and general understanding of value-driven anthropogenic environmental change and response. Two questions guide this research: what are the crucial stakeholder values that drive land use decisions and thus land cover change? And how can knowledge of these values be used to make decisions and policies that sustain both the human and natural systems in a place? To explore these questions we build simulation models of four study sites, two in the State of Texas, United States, and two in Venezuela. All include protected areas, though they differ in the specifics of vegetation and land use. In the Texas sites, relatively affluent individuals are legally converting forests to residential, commercial, and industrial uses, while in Venezuela landless settlers are extra-legally converting forests for purposes of subsistence agriculture. Contemporary modeling techniques now facilitate simulations of stakeholder and ecosystem dynamics revealing emergent patterns. Such coupled human and natural systems are currently recognized as a form of biocomplexity. Our modeling framework is flexible enough to allow adaptation to each of the study sites, capturing the essential features of the respective natural and anthropogenic land use changes and stakeholder reactions. The interactions between human stakeholders are simulated using multi-agent models that act on forest landscape models, and receive feedback of the effects of these actions on ecological habitats and hydrological response. The multi-agent models employ a formal logic-based method for the Venezuelan sites and a decision analysis approach using multi-attribute utility functions for the Texas sites, differing more in style and emphasis than in substance. Our natural-systems models are generic and can be tailored according to site-specific conditions. Similar models of tree growth and patch transitions are used for all the study sites and the differing responses to environmental variables are specified for each local species and terrain conditions.     

Church-based social capital, networks and geographical scale: Katrina evacuation, relocation, and recovery in a New Orleans Vietnamese American community

This research examines the role of social capital and networks to explain the evacuation, relocation, and recovery experiences of a Vietnamese American community in New Orleans, Louisiana in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. As the single largest community institution, the parish church’s complex bonding and bridging social capital and networks proved particularly critical in part because of its historically based ontological security. The process of evacuation, but especially relocation and recovery, was dependent on deploying co-ethnic social capital and networks at a variety of geographical scales. Beyond the local or community scale, extra-local, regional, and national scales of social capital and networks reproduced a spatially redefined Vietnamese American community. Part of the recovery process included constructing discursive place-based collective-action frames to successfully contest a nearby landfill that in turn engendered social capital and networks crossing ethnic boundaries to include the extra-local African American community. Engaging social capital and networks beyond the local geographical scale cultivated a Vietnamese American community with an emergent post-Katrina cultural and political identity.     

Lateral structural variability in zone of eocene island-arc-continent collision,Kamchatka

The lateral variability of structural elements in the collision zone of the Cretaceous-Paleocene Achaivayam-Valagin island arc with the northeastern Asian margin is considered. The similarity and difference of Eocene collision structural elements in the north and the south of Kamchatka are shown. In northern Kamchatka, the continent-arc boundary is traced along the Lesnaya-Vatyn Thrust Fault, which completed its evolution about 45 Ma ago. The thin, near-horizontal allochthon of this thrust, composed of island-arc rocks, overlies the deformed but unmetamorphosed terrigeneous sequences of the Asian margin. The general structure of this suture in the Kamchatka Isthmus and southern Koryakia is comparable with the uppermost subduction zone, where a thin lithospheric wedge overlaps intensely deformed sediments detached from the plunging plate. In southern Kamchatka (Malka Uplift of the Sredinny Range), the arc-continent collision started 55–53 Ma ago with thrusting of island-arc complexes over terrigenous rocks of continental margin. However, the thickness of the allochthon was much greater than in the north. Immediately after this event, both the autochthon and lower part of allochthon were deformed and subsided to a significant depth. This subsidence gave rise to metamorphism of both the autochthon (Kolpakov and Kamchatka groups, Kheivan Formation) and lower allochthon (Andrianovka and Khimka formations). The anomalously fast heating of the crust was most likely related to the ascent of asthenospheric masses due to slab breakoff, when the Eurasian Plate was plunging beneath the Achaivayam-Valagin arc.     

Lithospheric Origin of Oligocene-Miocene Magmatism in Central Chile: U-Pb Ages and Sr-Pb-Hf Isotope Composition of Minerals

Establishing the petrogenesis of volcanic and plutonic rocksis a key issue in unraveling the evolution of distinct subduction-relatedtectonic phases occurring along the South American margin. Thisis particularly true for Cenozoic times when large volumes ofmagma were produced in the Andean belt. In this study we havefocused on Oligo-Miocene magmatism in central Chile at 33°S.Our data include field and petrographic observations, whole-rockmajor and trace element analyses, U–Pb zircon dating,and Pb, Sr, and Hf isotope analyses of plagioclase, clinopyroxene,and zircon mineral separates. Combined with earlier dating resultsthe new zircon ages define a 28·8–5·2 Maperiod of plutonic and volcanic activity that ceased as a consequenceof flattening subduction of the Nazca–Farallon plate.Rare earth elements patterns are variable, with up to 92 timeschondrite concentrations for light rare earth elements yielding(La/Yb)_N between 3·6 and 7·0, and an absence ofEu anomalies. Initial Pb isotope signatures are in the rangeof 18·358–19·023 for ²⁰⁶Pb/ ²⁰⁴Pb, 15·567–15·700for ²⁰⁷Pb/ ²⁰⁴Pb and 38·249–39·084 for ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb. Initial ⁸⁷Sr/ ⁸⁶Sr are mostly in the range of 0·70369–0·70505,with two more radiogenic values at 0·7066. Initial Hfisotopic compositions of zircons yield exclusively positiveHf_i ranging between + 6·9 and + 9·6. The newlydetermined initial isotope characteristics of the Oligo-Miocenemagmas suggest that the mantle source lithologies are differentfrom both those of Pacific mid-ocean ridge basalt and oceanisland basalt, plotting in the field of reference values forsubcontinental lithospheric mantle, characterized by moderatelarge ion lithophile element–high field strengh elementdepletion and high ²³⁸U/ ²⁰⁴Pb. A Hf model age of 2 Ga is estimatedfor the formation of the subcontinental mantle–continentalcrust assemblage in the region, suggesting that the initialSr and Pb isotope ratios inferred for the source of the Oligo-Mioceneparental magmas are the result of later Rb and U enrichmentcaused by mantle metasomatism. A time-integrated model Rb/Srof 0·039 and µ 16 are estimated for the sourceof the parental magmas, consistent with ratios measured in peridotitexenoliths from continental areas. Evolution from predominant(>90%) basaltic–gabbroic to andesitic–dioriticmagmas seems to involve a combination of (1) original traceelement differences in the metasomatized subcontinental mantle,(2) different degrees of partial melting and (3) fractionalcrystallization in the garnet- and spinel-peridotite stabilityfields. The genesis of more differentiated magmas reaching rhyolitic–graniticcompositions most probably also includes additional crystalfractionation at both shallow mantle depths and within the crust,possibly leading to some very minor assimilation of crustalmaterial. KEY WORDS: calc-alkaline magmatism; Oligo-Miocene; U–Pb dating; Sr–Pb–Hf isotopes; central Chile     

Synchronism in compression of the lithosphere in the central Atlantic and Western Tethys at the Tortonian-Messinian transition

The structure of anomalously uplifted areas in transverse ridges of the Vema, S o Paulo, and Romanche fracture zones is considered. It is concluded that their formation and eventual development in the present-day structure of the central Atlantic bottom proceeded during two stages. The first stage that corresponds to a short period at the Tortonian-Messinian transition (10 Ma ago) was marked by transportation of deep-seated rocks into the upper part of the lithosphere along thrust faults with mass motion in the meridional direction along the axis of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. The second stage was characterized by contrasting highamplitude vertical movements from 10 to 3 Ma ago. It is suggested that near-meridional compression in the domains surrounding the Western Tethys in the Tortonian-Messinian resulted in deformation of the upper lithosphere within large transform fracture zones of the central Atlantic. The deformation that occurred 10 Ma ago was a manifestation of the global neotectonic epoch of the Earth.     

Late Precambrian rifting in the geological history of the western slope of the South Urals

The rift-related geodynamic setting of the Late Precambrian geological evolution on the western slope of the South Urals is reconstructed on the basis of localization of lithotectonic complexes of this age, their formation conditions, and the geochemistry of rocks. The Early Riphean stage comprises accumulation of coarse-clastic rocks intercalating with alkaline volcanic rocks of the Navysh Complex, which is a constituent of the Ai Formation, and emplacement of doleritic and picritic intrusions of the Shuida Complex and melanocratic dolerite and gabbrodolerite of the Yusha Complex. The Middle Riphean stage is characterized by wide-spread coarse-clastic terrigenous rocks of the Mashak Formation that intercalate with volcanic rocks of the bimodal basalt-rhyolite association, the Berdyaush pluton of rapakivi granite, the Kusa-Kopan layered intrusive complex, the Lapyshta Complex of dolerites and picrites, and numerous occurrences of gabbrodolerites. The terrigenous rocks of the Vendian stage include conglomerate, gravelstone, and sandstone of the Asha Group, while igneous rocks comprise alkaline volcanics of the Arsha Complex, alkali gabbroids of the Miseli Complex, and melanocratic syenite of the Avashla Complex. The geological evolution of the region is distinguished by local (failed or aborted) rifting. The occurrence of lithotectonic complexes is controlled by dynamic conditions of rifting. A certain inheritance in the evolution may be traced for the Early and Middle Riphean and partly for the Late Riphean and Vendian.     

Large and giant hydrocarbon accumulations in the transitional continent-ocean zone

The petroleum resource potential is considered for the Atlantic, West Pacific, and East Pacific types of deepwater continental margins. The most considerable energy resources are concentrated at the Atlantic-type passive margins in the zone transitional to the ocean. The less studied continental slope of backarc seas of the generally active margins of the West Pacific type is currently not so rich in discoveries as the Atlantic-type margin, but is not devoid of certain expectations. In some of their parameters, the margins bounded by continental slopes may be regarded as analogs of classical passive margins. At the margins of the East Pacific type, the petroleum potential is solely confined to transform segments. In the shelf-continental-slope basins of the rift and pull-apart nature, petroleum fields occur largely in the upper fan complex, and to a lesser extent in the lower graben (rift) complex. In light of world experience, the shelf-continental-slope basins of the Arctic and Pacific margins of Russia are evaluated as highly promising.     

Lateral protrusions in the structure of the Earth’s lithosphere

The factual material and modeling results concerning the geology of specific structural elements defined as lateral protrusions, or flowing layers, are considered. The formation of such structural elements is a fundamental phenomenon that controls many features of the structural evolution and geodynamics of platform basement and foldbelts. A lateral protrusion, or flowing layer, is a spatially constrained, nearly horizontal geological body with attributes of 3D tectonic flow (rheid deformation) and lateral transport of rock masses. Flowing layers are large lateral protrusions that play important role in the structure of the continental and oceanic lithosphere. They embody the internal mobility of huge rock bodies and confirm the possibility of their lateral redistribution at different depths of the continental lithosphere. The lateral displacement of rocks within such assemblies may occur in the regime of cold deformation, heating, metamorphism, and ductile flow of rocks under subsolidus conditions or in the process of their partial melting.     

Comparison of arsenic concentrations in simultaneously-collected groundwater and aquifer particles from Bangladesh,India, Vietnam,and Nepal

One of the reasons the processes resulting in As release to groundwater in southern Asia remain poorly understood is the high degree of spatial variability of physical and chemical properties in shallow aquifers. In an attempt to overcome this difficulty, a simple device that collects groundwater and sediment as a slurry from precisely the same interval was developed in Bangladesh. Recently published results from Bangladesh and India relying on the needle-sampler are augmented here with new data from 37 intervals of grey aquifer material of likely Holocene age in Vietnam and Nepal. A total of 145 samples of filtered groundwater ranging in depth from 3 to 36 m that were analyzed for As (1–1000 μg/L), Fe (0.01–40 mg/L), Mn (0.2–4 mg/L) and S (0.04–14 mg/L) are compared. The P-extractable (0.01–36 mg/kg) and HCl-extractable As (0.04–36 mg/kg) content of the particulate phase was determined in the same suite of samples, in addition to Fe(II)/Fe ratios (0.2–1.0) in the acid-leachable fraction of the particulate phase. Needle-sampler data from Bangladesh indicated a relationship between dissolved As in groundwater and P-extractable As in the particulate phase that was interpreted as an indication of adsorptive equilibrium, under sufficiently reducing conditions, across 3 orders of magnitude in concentrations according to a distribution coefficient of 4 mL/g. The more recent observations from India, Vietnam and Nepal show groundwater As concentrations that are often an order of magnitude lower at a given level of P-extractable As compared to Bangladesh, even if only the subset of particularly reducing intervals characterized by leachable Fe(II)/Fe >0.5 and dissolved Fe >0.2 mg/L are considered. Without attempting to explain why As appears to be particularly mobile in reducing aquifers of Bangladesh compared to the other regions, the consequences of increasing the distribution coefficient for As between the particulate and dissolved phase to 40 mL/g for the flushing of shallow aquifers of their initial As content are explored.