Resilience assessment on coastline changes and urban settlements: A case study in Seribu Islands, Indonesia

The sustainable development in the ocean and costal areas has been an issue for the archipelago nation. Since two decades ago, some archipelago nations have attempted to implement the concept of both scientifically and politically sounding sustainability. The vulnerability assessment is one of the methods that are being used to measure the ocean and coastal sustainability in order to have better evaluation and redesign of the land development as well as policy making. Most of the vulnerability assessment has been conducted based on pressures, damages and changes that involve in the region. A common understanding of the vulnerability assessment is that there are three aspects to be considered: hazards, resilience and damages. These three aspects must be well defined at first in order to have better indicators or sub-indices for the vulnerability index. There are several issues and factors that should be considered before performing the vulnerability assessment. Firstly, each country has different coastal characteristics due to a different geologic process. Secondly, the three aspects of the vulnerability (i.e. hazards, resilience and damages) are impacting on each country at a different scale. Thirdly, the vulnerability of a small island region is different from that of a large island region. Finally, policies and regulations vary in each country.From the data analysis results, it is found that the urban settlement in Seribu Islands is one of the resilient factors in addition to the geological and geomorphological conditions. The resilience factors in Seribu Islands are classified into four categories: 1) settlements area, 2) population density, 3) hard infrastructure such as airfields, ports and roads, 4) geological process such as abrasion and erosion. Based on the island characteristics of Seribu Islands, a unique vulnerability index that fits to this locality is developed. It is shown that the vulnerability index developed in this study can measure the resilience of Seribu Islands. In addition to the aforementioned resilience factors, the unique geographical condition and the geological stability in Seribu Islands made the outer islands become a barrier from oceanographic conditions and made the inner islands protected. However, the population growth made significant changes in terms of ecology, water, sanitation and pollution within the region.     

Comparison of radiocarbon and OSL dating methods for a Late Quaternary sediment core from Lake Ulaan,Mongolia

Both radiocarbon and optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating methods were applied to test their suitability for establishing a chronology of arid-zone lacustrine sediments using a 5.88-m-long core drilled from Lake Ulaan, southern Mongolia. Although the radiocarbon and OSL ages agree in some samples, the radiocarbon ages are older than the corresponding OSL ages at the 550-cm depth horizon (late Pleistocene) and in the 100–300-cm interval (early to late Holocene). In the early to late Holocene, radiocarbon ages are consistently older than OSL ages by 4,100–5,800 years, and in the late Pleistocene by 2,700–3,000 years. Grain-size analysis of early to late Holocene sediments and one late Pleistocene sediment sample (550-cm depth) indicates that eolian processes were the dominant sediment-transport mechanism. Also, two late Pleistocene sediments samples (from 400- to 500-cm depths) are interpreted to have been deposited by both eolian and glaciofluvial processes. Accordingly, the radiocarbon ages that were older than the corresponding OSL ages during the Holocene seem to have been a consequence of the influx of ¹⁴C-deficient carbon delivered from adjacent soils and Paleozoic carbonate rocks by the westerly winds, a process that is also active today. In addition to the input of old reworked carbon by eolian processes, the late Pleistocene sediments were also influenced by old carbon delivered by deglacial meltwater. The results of this study suggest that when eolian sediment transport is suspected, especially in lakes of arid environments, the OSL dating method is superior to the radiocarbon dating method, as it eliminates a common ‘old-carbon’ error problem.     

Extreme temperature scenarios in Mexicali,Mexico under climate change conditions

Extreme weather events can have severe consequences for the population and the environment. Therefore, in this study a temporal trend of annual temperatures was built with a time series from 1950 to 2010 for Mexicali, Mexico, and estimates of 5- to 100-year return periods are provided by modeling of summer maximum and winter minimum temperatures. A non-parametric Kendall’s tau test and the Sen’s slope estimator were used to compute trends. The generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution was applied to the approximation of block maxima and the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) to values over a predetermined threshold. Due to the non-stationary characteristic of the series of temperature values, the temporal trend was included as a covariable in the location parameter and substantial improvements were observed, particularly with the extreme minimum temperature, compared to that obtained with the GEV with no covariable and with the GPD. A positive and significant statistically trend in both summer maximum temperature and winter minimum temperature was found. By the end of 21st century the extreme maximum temperature could be 2 to 3 °C higher than current, and the winter could be less severe, as the probabilistic model suggests increases of 7 to 9 °C in the extreme minimum temperature with respect to the base period. The foreseeable consequences on Mexicali city are discussed.     

Velocities and Temperatures of an Ellerman Bomb and Its Associated Features

We investigated the velocity and temperature characteristics of an Ellerman bomb (EB) and its associated features based on observations made with the Fast Imaging Solar Spectrograph (FISS) and a broadband TiO filter of the 1.6 meter New Solar Telescope at Big Bear Solar Observatory. In the TiO images of the photospheric level, we found a granular cell expanding in two opposite directions near the site of the EB. When one end of this granule reached the EB site, the transverse speed of the tip of the expanding granule rapidly decreased and the EB brightened. The wings of the Hα profile of the EB indicated that the EB was blueshifted up to 7 km?s^?1. About 260 s after the EB brightening, a surge was seen in absorption and varied from a blueshift of 20 km?s^?1 to a redshift of 40 km?s^?1 seen in the Hα and Ca ii 8542 Å lines. From the Doppler absorption width of the two lines determined by applying the cloud model, we estimated the mean temperature of the surge material to be about 29000 K and the mean speed of nonthermal motion to be about 11 km?s^?1. We discuss the physical implications of our results in terms of magnetic reconnection and processes related to it.     

Microbiological response to well pumping

To better constrain sampling strategies for observing biologically sensitive parameters in ground water, we vigorously pumped for 120 h a lightly pumped well completed in a confined glacial aquifer while observing how various physical and chemical parameters evolve in the water produced. The parameters commonly monitored when sampling a well stabilized within about an hour, after 5 wellbore volumes were produced; these parameters include temperature, pH, dissolved oxygen, oxidation-reduction potential (Eh), and electrical conductivity. The concentrations of ferrous iron, sulfide, and sulfate and various biological or biologically sensitive parameters, including the concentrations of dissolved hydrogen and methane, direct cell counts, and the microbial community profile, in contrast, required more than 8 h or 36 well volumes to stabilize. We interpret this result to mean that the zone of influence of the wellbore on biologic processes in the aquifer extends beyond the commonly recognized zone where physical properties are affected. A second period of adjustment of these biologically sensitive parameters began after about 50 h of pumping, following displacement of 230 wellbore volumes, and continued to the end of the experiment. During this period, the cell density and the composition of the microbial community suspended in the water samples changed. This finding indicates that the microbial community in and near the wellbore changed in response to pumping and the changes affected aspects of the composition of water produced from the well. The study demonstrates the importance of allowing adequate pumping time when sampling ground water for the analysis of biologically sensitive parameters.     

东韩暖流驱动机制的正压数值研究

本文基于POM(Princeton Ocean Model)建立起日本海环流的数值模式。通过几个在有入(出)流情况下的正压变水深数值实验,检验了地形对日本海环流的影响。结果表明地形是控制日本海环流的重要因子。对马暖流在日本近岸的分支较多地受到地形的影响,这与前人的结论相一致。本文的研究发现在真实地形下,东韩暖流在正压情况下却很难由行星β效应维持。因此,层化效应是形成东韩暖流的必要因素。     

Effects of natural and calcined poultry waste on Cd, Pb and As mobility in contaminated soil

The reuse of waste materials as soil additives could be a welcome development in soil remediation. The mobility of Cd, Pb and As in a contaminated soil was investigated using natural and calcined poultry wastes (eggshell and chicken bone), CaCO₃ and CaO at different application rates (0, 1, 3 and 5 %). The chemical composition accompanied with mineralogical composition indicated that CaCO₃ and CaO were the major components in natural and calcined eggshells, respectively, while hydroxyapatite (HAP) dominated the natural and calcined chicken bones. The results showed that soil pH tended to increase in response to increasing application rates of all soil additives. The effectiveness of the additives in reducing Cd, Pb and As mobility was assessed by means of chemical extractions with 0.1 N HCl for Cd and Pb or 1 N HCl for As, according to Korean Standard Test (KST) method. Both calcined eggshell and chicken bone were equally effective with CaO or CaCO₃ in reducing the concentration of 0.1 N HCl-extractable Cd from 6.17 mg kg^?1 to below warning level of 1.5 mg kg^?1, especially at the highest application rate. The application of calcined eggshell, CaO and CaCO₃ also decreased the concentration of 0.1 N HCl-extractable Pb from 1,012 mg kg^?1 to below warning level of 100 mg kg^?1. The Pb concentration decreased significantly with an increasing application rate of chicken bone, but remained above warning level even at the highest application rate. On the contrary, natural and calcined chicken bones led to a significant increase in the mobility of As when compared with the control soil. These findings illustrate that calcined eggshell in particular is equally effective as pure chemical additives in stabilizing Cd and Pb in a contaminated agricultural soil. The presence of As in metal-contaminated soils should be taken into consideration when applying phosphate-containing materials as soil additives, because phosphate can compete with arsenate on adsorption sites and result in As mobilization.     

Investigation of aerosol indirect effects on simulated flash-flood heavy rainfall over Korea

This study investigates aerosol indirect effects on the development of heavy rainfall near Seoul, South Korea, on 12 July 2006, focusing on precipitation amount. The impact of the aerosol concentration on simulated precipitation is evaluated by varying the initial cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) number concentration in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Double-Moment 6-class (WDM6) microphysics scheme. The simulations are performed under clean, semi-polluted, and polluted conditions. Detailed analysis of the physical processes that are responsible for surface precipitation, including moisture and cloud microphysical budgets shows enhanced ice-phase processes to be the primary driver of increased surface precipitation under the semi-polluted condition. Under the polluted condition, suppressed auto-conversion and the enhanced evaporation of rain cause surface precipitation to decrease. To investigate the role of environmental conditions on precipitation response under different aerosol number concentrations, a set of sensitivity experiments are conducted with a 5?% decrease in relative humidity at the initial time, relative to the base simulations. Results show ice-phase processes having small sensitivity to CCN number concentration, compared with the base simulations. Surface precipitation responds differently to CCN number concentration under the lower humidity initial condition, being greatest under the clean condition, followed by the semi-polluted and polluted conditions.     

Real Data Assimilation Using the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) System for a Global Non-hydrostatic NWP model on the Cubed-sphere

An ensemble data assimilation system using the 4-dimensional Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter is implemented to a global non-hydrostatic Numerical Weather Prediction model on the cubed-sphere. The ensemble data assimilation system is coupled to the Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems Package for Observation Processing, for real observation data from diverse resources, including satellites. For computational efficiency in a parallel computing environment, we employ some advanced software engineering techniques in the handling of a large number of files. The ensemble data assimilation system is tested in a semi-operational mode, and its performance is verified using the Integrated Forecast System analysis from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. It is found that the system can be stabilized effectively by additive inflation to account for sampling errors, especially when radiance satellite data are additionally used.