Utilising fifteen (1990–2005) years of ground-based magnetometer data from four magnetometer stations, we characterise the statistical dependence of the Pc5 ULF wave power spectra on variations in F10.7 solar radio flux and on solar cycle phase. We show that the median Pc5 ULF wave power spectra can be characterised as a power-law with a localised Gaussian centred at a specific frequency superimposed on the power-law spectrum. Further, we demonstrate that the location of the Gaussian in frequency systematically varies with both solar cycle phase and F10.7 and is more pronounced during high-speed solar wind intervals. We postulate that the localised power spectrum enhancement (or Gaussian) is a manifestation of the local eigenfrequency of field line resonances in the Earth's magnetosphere and that the variation in the location of the Gaussian occurs as a result of increased ionospheric outflow during periods of enhanced F10.7 and active solar activity. 相似文献
Transportation contributes to a significant and rising share of global energy use and GHG emissions. Therefore modeling future travel demand, its fuel use, and resulting CO2 emission is highly relevant for climate change mitigation. In this study we compare the baseline projections for global service demand (passenger-kilometers, ton-kilometers), fuel use, and CO2 emissions of five different global transport models using harmonized input assumptions on income and population. For four models we also evaluate the impact of a carbon tax. All models project a steep increase in service demand over the century. Technology change is important for limiting energy consumption and CO2 emissions, the study also shows that in order to stabilise or even decrease emissions radical changes would be required. While all models project liquid fossil fuels dominating up to 2050, they differ regarding the use of alternative fuels (natural gas, hydrogen, biofuels, and electricity), because of different fuel price projections. The carbon tax of 200 USD/tCO2 in 2050 stabilizes or reverses global emission growth in all models. Besides common findings many differences in the model assumptions and projections indicate room for further understanding long-term trends and uncertainty in future transport systems. 相似文献
Fourteen years (November 16, 1978 through January 24, 1993) of Nimbus-7 total solar irradiance measurements have been made. The measured mean annual solar energy just outside of the Earth's atmosphere was about 0.1% (1.4 W/m2) higher in the peak years of 1979 (cycle 21) and 1991 (cycle 22) than in the quiet Sun years of 1985/86. Comparison with shorter, independent solar measurement sets and with empirical models qualitatively confirms the Nimbus-7 results. But these comparisons also raise questions of detail for future studies: in which years did the peaks actually occur and just how accurate are the models and the measurements? 相似文献
Phosphorus (P) can limit crop production in many soils, and soil testing is used to guide fertilizer recommendations. The Mehlich III (M3) soil test is widely used in North America, followed by colorimetric analysis for P, or by inductively coupled plasma-based spectrometry (ICP) for P and cations. However, differences have been observed in M3 P concentrations measured by these methods. Using 31P nuclear magnetic resonance (P-NMR) and mass spectrometry (MS), we characterized P forms in M3 extracts. In addition to the orthophosphate that would be detected during colorimetric analysis, several organic P forms were present in M3 extracts that would be unreactive colorimetrically but measured by ICP (molybdate unreactive P, MUP). Extraction of these P forms by M3 was confirmed by P-NMR and MS in NaOH-ethylenediaminetetraacetic acid extracts of whole soils and residues after M3 extraction. The most abundant P form in M3 extracts was myo-inositol hexaphosphate (myo-IHP, phytate), a compound that may not contribute to plant-available P if tightly sorbed in soil. Concentrations of myo-IHP and other organic P forms varied among soils, and even among treatment plots on the same soil. Extraction of myo-IHP in M3 appeared to be linked to cations, with substantially more myo-IHP extracted from soils fertilized with alum-treated poultry litter than untreated litter. These results suggest that ICP analysis may substantially over-estimate plant-available P in samples with high MUP concentrations, but there is no way at present to determine MUP concentrations without analysis by both colorimetry and ICP. This study also tested procedures that will improve future soil P-NMR studies, such as treatment of acid extracts, and demonstrated that techniques such as P-NMR and MS are complimentary, each yielding additional information that analysis by a single technique may not provide.
Journal of Paleolimnology - Epikarst estuary response to hydroclimate change remains poorly understood, despite the well-studied link between climate and karst groundwater aquifers. The influence... 相似文献
Seismic fragility curves provide a powerful tool to assess the reliability of structures. However, conventional fragility analysis of structures comprising a large number of components requires enormous computational efforts. In this paper, the application of probabilistic support vector machines (PSVM) for the system fragility analysis of existing structures is proposed. It is demonstrated that support vector machine based fragility curves provide accurate predictions compared to rigorous methodologies such as component based fragilities developed by Monte Carlo simulations. The proposed method is applied to an existing bridge structure in order to develop fragility curves for serviceability and collapse limit states. In addition, the efficiency of using the PSVM method in the application of vector-valued ground motion intensity measures (IM) as well as traditional single-valued IM are investigated. The results obtained from an incremental dynamic analysis of the structure are used to train PSVMs. The application of PSVM in binary and multi-class classifications is used for the fragility analysis and reliability assessment of the bridge structure. 相似文献
Knowledge of river gain from or loss to a hydraulically connected water table aquifer is crucial in issues of water rights and also when attempting to optimize conjunctive use of surface and ground waters. Typically in groundwater models this exchange flow is related to a difference in head between the river and some point in the aquifer, through a “coefficient.” This coefficient has been defined differently as well as the location for the head in the aquifer. This paper proposes a new coefficient, analytically derived, and a specific location for the point where the aquifer head is used in the difference. The dimensionless part of the coefficient is referred to as the SAFE (stream‐aquifer flow exchange) dimensionless conductance. The paper investigates the factors that influence the value of this new conductance. Among these factors are (1) the wetted perimeter of the cross‐section, (2) the degree of penetration of the cross‐section, and (3) the shape of the cross‐section. The study shows that these factors just listed are indeed ordered in their respective level of importance. In addition the study verifies that the analytical correct value of the coefficient is matched by finite difference simulation only if the grid system is sufficiently fine. Thus the use of the analytical value of the coefficient is an accurate and efficient alternative to ad hoc estimates for the coefficient typically used in finite difference and finite element methods. 相似文献