Guidance on the Choice of Threshold for Binary Forecast Modeling

This paper proposes useful guidance on the choice of threshold for binary forecasts. In weather forecast systems, the probabilistic forecast cannot be used directly when estimated too smoothly. In this case, the binary forecast, whether a meteorological event will occur or not, is preferable to the probabilistic forecast. A threshold is needed to generate a binary forecast, and the guidance in this paper encompasses the use of skill scores for the choice of threshold according to the forecast pattern. The forecast pattern consists of distribution modes of estimated probabilities, occurrence rates of observations, and variation modes. This study is performed via Monte-Carlo simulation, with 48 forecast patterns considered. Estimated probabilities are generated by random variate sampling from five distributions separately. Varying the threshold from 0 to 1, binary forecasts are generated by threshold. For the assessment of binary forecast models, a 2×2 contingency table is used and four skill scores （Heidke skill score, hit rate, true skill statistic, and threat score） are compared for each forecast pattern. As a result, guidance on the choice of skill score to find the optimal threshold is proposed.     

Algebraic approach to spatial reasoning

Abstract

A simple, exemplary system is described that performs reasoning about the spatial relationships between members of a set of spatial objects. The main problem of interest is to make sound and complete inferences about the set of all spatial relationships that hold between the objects, given prior information about a subset of the relationships. The spatial inferences are formalized within the framework of relation algebra and procedurally implemented in terms of constraint satisfaction procedures. Although the approach is general, the particular example employs a new ‘complete’ set of topological relationships that have been published elsewhere. In particular, a relation algebra for these topological relations is developed and a computational implementation of this algebra is described. Systems with such reasoning capabilities have many applications in geographical analysis and could be usefully incorporated into geographical information systems and related systems.     

Variability of the Dokdo Abyssal Current observed in the Ulleung Interplain Gap of the East/Japan Sea

Subinertial fluctuation of a strong northward deep current, which is referred to the Dokdo Abyssal Current (DAC) by Chang et al. (2009), is investigated from current records for about 16.5 and 8.0 months in the Ulleung Interplain Gap of the East/Japan Sea. The current below 300 m is bottom-intensified and has nearly depth-independent flow. Near bottom, the spectral peaks of the current were found near 10, 20, and 60 d. The DAC variability near 10 d and 20 d is reasonably consistent with the linear theory of topographic Rossby waves (TRWs) in the following aspects: (1) The motion is columnar and bottom-intensified; (2) the theoretical cutoff frequency is similar to the observation; (3) The observation-based angles of the wavenumber vector are in good agreement with the theoretical ones. The wavelengths of the TRWs with periods of near 10 d and 20 d near Dokdo are significantly shorter than those with similar timescales in the open oceans (100-250 km). It is primarily due to the weak stratification below 300 m in the East Sea. The deep current fluctuations with periods of near 10 d and 20 d were accompanied by warm events in the upper layer resulting from eddying processes and/or meandering of the Tsushima Warm Current.     

Comet 81P/Wild 2: The size distribution of finer (sub‐10 μm) dust collected by the Stardust spacecraft

Abstract– The fluence of dust particles <10 μm in diameter was recorded by impacts on aluminum foil of the NASA Stardust spacecraft during a close flyby of comet 81P/Wild 2 in 2004. Initial interpretation of craters for impactor particle dimensions and mass was based upon laboratory experimental simulations using projectiles less than >10 μm in diameter and the resulting linear relationship of projectile to crater diameter was extrapolated to smaller sizes. We now describe a new experimental calibration program firing very small monodisperse silica projectiles (470 nm–10 μm) at approximately 6 km s^?1. The results show an unexpected departure from linear relationship between 1 and 10 μm. We collated crater measurement data and, where applicable, impactor residue data for 596 craters gathered during the postmission preliminary examination phase. Using the new calibration, we recalculate the size of the particle responsible for each crater and hence reinterpret the cometary dust size distribution. We find a greater flux of small particles than previously reported. From crater morphology and residue composition of a subset of craters, the internal structure and dimensions of the fine dust particles are inferred and a “maximum‐size” distribution for the subgrains composing aggregate particles is obtained. The size distribution of the small particles derived directly from the measured craters peaks at approximately 175 nm, but if this is corrected to allow for aggregate grains, the peak in subgrain sizes is at <100 nm.     

Integration of the nuclease protection assay with sandwich hybridization (NPA-SH) for sensitive detection of Heterocapsa triquetra

Microalgae are photosynthetic microorganisms that function as primary producers in aquatic ecosystems. Some species of microalgae undergo rapid growth and cause harmful blooms in marine ecosystems. Heterocapsa triquetra is one of the most common bloom-forming species in estuarine and coastal waters worldwide. Although this species does not produce toxins, unlike some other Heterocapsa species, the high density of its blooms can cause significant ecological damage. We developed a H. triquetra species-specific nuclease protection assay sandwich hybridization (NPA-SH) probe that targets the large subunit of ribosomal RNA (LSU rRNA). We tested probe specificity and sensitivity with five other dinoflagellates that also cause red tides. Our assay detected H. triquetra at a concentration of 1.5×10⁴ cells/mL, more sensitive than required for a red-tide guidance warning by the Korea Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries in 2015 (3.0×10⁴ cells/mL). We also used the NPA-SH assay to monitor H. triquetra in the Tongyeong region of the southern sea area of Korea during 2014. This method could detect H. triquetra cells within 3 h. Our assay is useful for monitoring H. triquetra under field conditions.     

朝鲜平南盆地古元古界-下古生界沉积岩碎屑锆石年龄谱对比及意义

中朝古陆(华北古陆)平南盆地面积~25000km~2,位于朝鲜半岛中部,发育从中元古界到下古生界地层,但经历了低级变质作用(绿片岩相及以下)。变质基底岩石中有一套角闪岩相-麻粒岩相的变质的古元古界地层。本文根据盆地不同时代沉积岩碎屑锆石/变质锆石U-Pb LA-ICP MS年龄数据讨论沉积源区的变化,并对区域演化进行制约。甑山群/杂岩为盆地基底岩系,变质砂岩样品中碎屑锆石出现ca.2500~2100Ma的年龄峰值。另外,36.5亿年的碎屑锆石是朝鲜迄今发现的最古老碎屑锆石;夕线榴片麻岩样品记录了~1850Ma(1859±9Ma)的变质年龄;推测甑山群沉积于ca.2100~1900Ma,变质于1850 Ma。黄海群局限分布于朝鲜半岛中部,碎屑锆石年龄谱显示~1850 Ma的峰值,可见~1250 Ma的年龄,推测对应物源为古元古代基底岩浆岩和变质岩系;结合其上覆直岘群的沉积时代,推测地层沉积于ca.1250~1000Ma。直岘群是平南盆地分布最广的地层之一,底部长峰组样品显示明显的~1850Ma的峰值,而其上第二个和第三个组则显示明显的ca.1400~1600Ma和ca.1000~1200 Ma年龄峰值,~1850 Ma年龄很少;推测直岘群开始沉积时,物源主体是盆地基底岩系,但之后出现大量中元古代物质;推测其沉积时代为ca.1000~900Ma。黄州群有~1850Ma和~2500Ma的峰值,另外,还有较少的ca.1000~1200Ma及1400~1600 Ma年龄,表明沉积物源主体仍是基底岩系,可能有中新元古代沉积岩(黄州群-直岘群)的再沉积。这些沉积岩碎屑锆石年龄峰值与辽东和山东半岛沉积地层相似,并且中新元古代地层中均有大量1000~1200Ma及1400~1600Ma的物质,推测可能来自华北古陆之外,如圣弗朗西斯科克拉通。     

白头山火山渣锥的岩浆演化研究

火山渣锥是白头山(或长白山)火山喷发的重要产物,主要沿熔岩台地周边呈圆锥状寄生小火山锥体分布。野外特征显示,火山渣是火山渣锥的重要组成;岩石手标本显示,火山渣具有气孔构造,样品自顶部至底部,颜色从赤色、赤褐色,向褐色、灰色发生转变。地球化学特征表明,火山渣岩性包括玄武岩、粗面玄武岩、玄武岩质粗面安山岩、粗面安山岩岩,具有较高SiO_2(46.22%~55.38%),Al_2O3含量(15.28%~22.11%),低MgO(2.05%~4.94%),FeOT(6.79%~14.76%)的特征;同时具有较高的碱Na_2O/K_2O(Na_2O/K_2O1)比值,为钠质火山岩。其轻稀土(LREE)和重稀土(HREE)分异明显,具有弱的δEu正异常,并且具有富集K、Rb、Ba、Sr等大离子亲石元素(LILE)和相对亏损Nb、Ti等高场强元素(HFSE)的特征。此外,火山渣的分异指数(DI)范围为36.93~64.48,高于造盾阶段的幔源玄武岩的分异指数;其固结指数(SI)为10.73~24.09,低于早期幔源玄武岩的固结指数(SI=25~45),这些特征说明火山渣成分发生了较高程度的岩浆分异作用。同时,火山渣的Nb/La、Sm/Nd、La/Nb和Ba/Nb比值几乎全部介于幔源玄武岩和大陆地壳之间,说明具有明显的地壳混染的特征。因此,我们认为研究区火山渣的岩浆可能是由幔源基性玄武岩上升过程中发生分离结晶和地壳混染作用形成的。     

High-resolution circulation forecasting of the Maenggol Channel, south coast of Korea

The Maenggol Channel and Uldolmok Strait, located on the south-west coast of Korea, have notably strong and complex currents due to tidal effects and to local geological factors. In these areas, electric power has been generated using strong tidal currents, the speed of which is more than 3 m/s during spring tides. The region also provides a shortcut for navigation. These tidal conditions are therefore sometimes useful, but may also cause terrible accidents or severe economic damage, in the absence of accurate information regarding ocean conditions. In April 2014, the passenger ferry MV Sewol capsized in the Maenggol Channel, with 295 passengers killed and 9 still missing. While this was unquestionably a man-made disaster, strong currents were one of the contributing causes. It was also difficult to conduct scuba diving rescue operations given strong current speeds, and accurate prediction of the time when the tide would turn was thus critically needed. In this research, we used the high-resolution coastal circulation forecasting system of KOOS (Korea Operational Oceanographic System) for analysis and simulation of strong tidal currents in such areas with many small islands, using measurements and modeling from this research area. For accurate prediction of tidal currents, small grid size-modeling was needed, and in this study, we identified a suitable grid size that offers efficiency as well as accuracy.     

集合同化方法在黄海海域海表面温度同化中的应用

The effects of sea surface temperature(SST) data assimilation in two regional ocean modeling systems were examined for the Yellow Sea(YS). The SST data from the Operational Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Ice Analysis(OSTIA) were assimilated. The National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center(NMEFC) modeling system uses the ensemble optimal interpolation method for ocean data assimilation and the Kunsan National University(KNU) modeling system uses the ensemble Kalman filter. Without data assimilation, the NMEFC modeling system was better in simulating the subsurface temperature while the KNU modeling system was better in simulating SST. The disparity between both modeling systems might be related to differences in calculating the surface heat flux, horizontal grid spacing, and atmospheric forcing data. The data assimilation reduced the root mean square error(RMSE) of the SST from 1.78°C(1.46°C) to 1.30°C(1.21°C) for the NMEFC(KNU) modeling system when the simulated temperature was compared to Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature(OISST) SST dataset. A comparison with the buoy SST data indicated a 41%(31%) decrease in the SST error for the NMEFC(KNU) modeling system by the data assimilation. In both data assimilative systems, the RMSE of the temperature was less than 1.5°C in the upper 20 m and approximately 3.1°C in the lower layer in October. In contrast, it was less than 1.0°C throughout the water column in February. This study suggests that assimilations of the observed temperature profiles are necessary in order to correct the lower layer temperature during the stratified season and an ocean modeling system with small grid spacing and optimal data assimilation method is preferable to ensure accurate predictions of the coastal ocean in the YS.