Robust estimation of deformation from observation differences for free control networks

Deformation measurements have a repeatable nature. This means that deformation measurements are performed often with the same equipment, methods, geometric conditions and in a similar environment in epochs 1 and 2 (e.g., a fully automated, continuous control measurements). It is, therefore, reasonable to assume that the results of deformation measurements can be distorted by both random errors and by some non-random errors, which are constant in both epochs. In other words, there is a high probability that the difference in the accuracy and precision of measurement of the same geometric element of the network in both epochs has a constant value and sign. The constant errors are understood, but the manifestation of these errors is difficult to determine in practice. For free control networks (the group of potential reference points in absolute control networks or the group of potential stable points in relative networks), the results of deformation measurements are most often processed using robust methods. Classical robust methods do not completely eliminate the effect of constant errors. This paper proposes a new robust alternative method called REDOD. The performed tests showed that if the results of deformation measurements were additionally distorted by constant errors, the REDOD method completely eliminated their effect from deformation analysis results. If the results of deformation measurements are only distorted by random errors, the REDOD method yields very similar deformation analysis results as the classical IWST method. The numerical tests were preceded by a theoretical part. The theoretical part describes the algorithm of classical robust methods. Particular attention was paid to the IWST method. In relation to classical robust methods, the optimization problem of the new REDOD method was formulated and the algorithm for its solution was derived.     

Contribution of Starlette,Stella, and AJISAI to the SLR-derived global reference frame

The contribution of Starlette, Stella, and AJISAI is currently neglected when defining the International Terrestrial Reference Frame, despite a long time series of precise SLR observations and a huge amount of available data. The inferior accuracy of the orbits of low orbiting geodetic satellites is the main reason for this neglect. The Analysis Centers of the International Laser Ranging Service (ILRS ACs) do, however, consider including low orbiting geodetic satellites for deriving the standard ILRS products based on LAGEOS and Etalon satellites, instead of the sparsely observed, and thus, virtually negligible Etalons. We process ten years of SLR observations to Starlette, Stella, AJISAI, and LAGEOS and we assess the impact of these Low Earth Orbiting (LEO) SLR satellites on the SLR-derived parameters. We study different orbit parameterizations, in particular different arc lengths and the impact of pseudo-stochastic pulses and dynamical orbit parameters on the quality of the solutions. We found that the repeatability of the East and North components of station coordinates, the quality of polar coordinates, and the scale estimates of the reference are improved when combining LAGEOS with low orbiting SLR satellites. In the multi-SLR solutions, the scale and the \(Z\) component of geocenter coordinates are less affected by deficiencies in solar radiation pressure modeling than in the LAGEOS-1/2 solutions, due to substantially reduced correlations between the \(Z\) geocenter coordinate and empirical orbit parameters. Eventually, we found that the standard values of Center-of-mass corrections (CoM) for geodetic LEO satellites are not valid for the currently operating SLR systems. The variations of station-dependent differential range biases reach 52 and 25 mm for AJISAI and Starlette/Stella, respectively, which is why estimating station-dependent range biases or using station-dependent CoM, instead of one value for all SLR stations, is strongly recommended. This clearly indicates that the ILRS effort to produce CoM corrections for each satellite, which are site-specific and depend on the system characteristics at the time of tracking, is very important and needs to be implemented in the SLR data analysis.     

Validation of Galileo orbits using SLR with a focus on satellites launched into incorrect orbital planes

The space segment of the European Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) Galileo consists of In-Orbit Validation (IOV) and Full Operational Capability (FOC) spacecraft. The first pair of FOC satellites was launched into an incorrect, highly eccentric orbital plane with a lower than nominal inclination angle. All Galileo satellites are equipped with satellite laser ranging (SLR) retroreflectors which allow, for example, for the assessment of the orbit quality or for the SLR–GNSS co-location in space. The number of SLR observations to Galileo satellites has been continuously increasing thanks to a series of intensive campaigns devoted to SLR tracking of GNSS satellites initiated by the International Laser Ranging Service. This paper assesses systematic effects and quality of Galileo orbits using SLR data with a main focus on Galileo satellites launched into incorrect orbits. We compare the SLR observations with respect to microwave-based Galileo orbits generated by the Center for Orbit Determination in Europe (CODE) in the framework of the International GNSS Service Multi-GNSS Experiment for the period 2014.0–2016.5. We analyze the SLR signature effect, which is characterized by the dependency of SLR residuals with respect to various incidence angles of laser beams for stations equipped with single-photon and multi-photon detectors. Surprisingly, the CODE orbit quality of satellites in the incorrect orbital planes is not worse than that of nominal FOC and IOV orbits. The RMS of SLR residuals is even lower by 5.0 and 1.5 mm for satellites in the incorrect orbital planes than for FOC and IOV satellites, respectively. The mean SLR offsets equal \(-44.9, -35.0\), and \(-22.4\) mm for IOV, FOC, and satellites in the incorrect orbital plane. Finally, we found that the empirical orbit models, which were originally designed for precise orbit determination of GNSS satellites in circular orbits, provide fully appropriate results also for highly eccentric orbits with variable linear and angular velocities.     

Changes in the Probability of Heavy Precipitation: Important Indicators of Climatic Change

A simple statistical model of daily precipitation based on the gamma distribution is applied to summer (JJA in Northern Hemisphere, DJF in Southern Hemisphere) data from eight countries: Canada, the United States, Mexico, the former Soviet Union, China, Australia, Norway, and Poland. These constitute more than 40% of the global land mass, and more than 80% of the extratropical land area. It is shown that the shape parameter of this distribution remains relatively stable, while the scale parameter is most variable spatially and temporally. This implies that the changes in mean monthly precipitation totals tend to have the most influence on the heavy precipitation rates in these countries. Observations show that in each country under consideration (except China), mean summer precipitation has increased by at least 5% in the past century. In the USA, Norway, and Australia the frequency of summer precipitation events has also increased, but there is little evidence of such increases in any of the countries considered during the past fifty years. A scenario is considered, whereby mean summer precipitation increases by 5% with no change in the number of days with precipitation or the shape parameter. When applied in the statistical model, the probability of daily precipitation exceeding 25.4 mm (1 inch) in northern countries (Canada, Norway, Russia, and Poland) or 50.8 mm (2 inches) in mid-latitude countries (the USA, Mexico, China, and Australia) increases by about 20% (nearly four times the increase in mean). The contribution of heavy rains (above these thresholds) to the total 5% increase of precipitation is disproportionally high (up to 50%), while heavy rain usually constitutes a significantly smaller fraction of the precipitation events and totals in extratropical regions (but up to 40% in the tropics, e.g., in southern Mexico). Scenarios with moderate changes in the number of days with precipitation coupled with changes in the scale parameter were also investigated and found to produce smaller increases in heavy rainfall but still support the above conclusions. These scenarios give changes in heavy rainfall which are comparable to those observed and are consistent with the greenhouse-gas-induced increases in heavy precipitation simulated by some climate models for the next century. In regions with adequate data coverage such as the eastern two-thirds of contiguous United States, Norway, eastern Australia, and the European part of the former USSR, the statistical model helps to explain the disproportionate high changes in heavy precipitation which have been observed.     

The inter-annual variations and the long-term trends of monthly air temperatures in Iraq over the period 1941–2013

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Mean annual and monthly averages of mean (Tmean), maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) air temperature from seven stations in Iraq were analysed to detect the...     

<Emphasis Type="Italic">Pleurozium schreberi</Emphasis> of the Tatra mountains (Poland) used as a bioindicational system for observing long range atmospheric transport of chemical elements

Concentrations of the elements Ca, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, K, Mg, Mn, Na, Ni, Pb, V and Zn were measured in the moss Pleurozium schreberi from the Tatra National Park, one of the most protected regions in Poland. The moss samples were collected at different elevations between 860 and 2220 m a.s.l. P. schreberi was used as bioindicator for long range transported atmospheric pollution investigating the hypothesis that elevation influences the concentrations of elements in this moss. Principal component and classification analysis (PCCA) distinguished between mosses from the highest and the lowest elevations and mosses from West/East oriented valleys. P. schreberi from the highest elevations contained the highest concentrations of Cd, Cu, Cr, Fe, Mn, Pb, V and Zn. P. schreberi from the lowest elevation contained the highest concentration of K. P. schreberi from West/East oriented valleys contained the highest concentrations of Ni and Co. P. schreberi from the Tatra National Park, one of the most protected areas in Poland, receives metals originating from long distance aerial transport.     

Geology,stratigraphy and palaeoenvironmental evolution of the Stephanorhinus kirchbergensis-bearing Quaternary palaeolake(s) of Gorzów Wielkopolski (NW Poland,Central Europe)

The sedimentary succession exposed in the Gorzów Wielkopolski area includes Eemian Interglacial (MIS 5e) or Early Weichselian (MIS 5d–e) deposits. The sedimentary sequence has been the object of intense interdisciplinary study, which has resulted in the identification of at least two palaeolake horizons. Both yielded fossil remains of large mammals, alongside pollen and plant macrofossils. All these proxies have been used to reconstruct the environmental conditions prevailing at the time of deposition, as well as to define the geological context and the biochronological position of the fauna. Optically stimulated luminescence dating of the glaciofluvial layers of the GS3 succession to 123.6 ± 10.1 (below the lower palaeolake) and 72.0 ± 5.2 ka (above the upper palaeolake) indicate that the site formed during the Middle–Late Pleistocene (MIS 6 – MIS 5). Radiocarbon-dating of the lacustrine organic matter revealed a tight cluster of Middle Pleniglacial Period (MIS 3) ages in the range of ~41–32 ka cal bp (Hengelo – Denekamp Interstadials). Holocene organic layers have also been found, with ¹⁴C ages within a range of 4330–4280 cal bp (Neolithic). Pollen and plant macrofossil records, together with sedimentological and geochemical data, confirm the dating to the Eemian Interglacial.     

Use of mathematical modeling to investigate inter-aquifer contamination by organic-rich water through an unplugged well (central Wielkopolska, Poland)

Hydrogeological research was performed to establish the origin of organic-rich water in a Quaternary aquifer (Wielkopolska Buried Valley aquifer, Poland). The spatial distribution of such water was determined by means of multilevel sampling with a packer. The nature, spatial distribution and chemistry of the organic-rich water suggest hydraulic connection between the Quaternary aquifer and the underlying Neogene aquifer. This connection may be enabled by an old abandoned, improperly plugged well, and must therefore be considered as an artificial hydraulic connection between hydrogeologically separated aquifers. For the verification of this hypothesis, a groundwater contaminant transport model was constructed. The results of contaminant transport modeling allow the contaminant transport parameters (transverse and longitudinal dispersivity) to be identified in the field. The numerical groundwater model was used for the prognosis of organic-rich water remediation, and for specification of water-resource management principles in the region where organic-rich water occurs. The results of this research enable the verification of assumptions regarding complex groundwater flow conditions in the boundary zone of a buried valley.     

A multiyear analysis of aerosol optical thickness over Europe and Central Poland using NAAPS model simulation

This study contains a comparative analysis of aerosol optical thickness (AOT) between numerical calculations obtained from the Navy Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System (NAAPS) model and direct observations from the AERONET robotic network and the Saharan Aerosol over WArsaw (SAWA) field campaign. AOT was calculated for 500 nm wavelength. The comparison shows underestimation of the total aerosol optical thickness simulated by NAAPS. The correlation coefficients between model and observation oscillates between 0.57 and 0.72. Results of seven-year (1998–2004) NAAPS simulation of aerosol components (sea salt, mineral dust, sulphate, and smoke) show large temporal and spatial variability of the aerosol optical thickness over Europe. The least polluted region is the Iberian Peninsula, while the highest aerosol burdens occurred in Central Europe, mostly due to anthropogenic sulphate particles. Finally, the analysis of mineral dust transport shows frequent episodes of Saharan dust inflow over Central Europe. There are about 20 days a year (4 days in May) when instantaneous AOT associated with mineral dust aerosol increases over 0.1.     

Hindcasting global temperature by evolutionary computation

Interpretation of changes of global temperature is important for our understanding of the climate system and for our confidence in projections for the future. Massive efforts have been devoted to improve the accuracy of reproducing the global temperature by the available climate models, but the hindcasts are still inaccurate. Notwithstanding the need to further advance climate models, one may consider data-driven approaches, providing practically useful results in a simpler and faster way. Without assuming any prior knowledge about physics and without imposing a model structure that encapsulates the existing knowledge about the underlying processes, we hindcast global temperature by automatically identified evolutionary computation models. We use 60 years of records of global temperature and climate drivers, with training and testing periods being 1950–1999 and 2000–2009, respectively. This paper demonstrates that the global temperature observed in the past is mimicked with reasonably good accuracy. Evolutionary computation holds promise for modeling the global climate system, which looks hopelessly complex in classical perspective.