Assessing the effects of land cover and future climate conditions on the provision of hydrological services in a medium‐sized watershed of Portugal

The separated and combined effects of land‐cover scenarios and future climate on the provision of hydrological services were evaluated in Vez watershed, northern Portugal. Soil and Water Assessment Tool was calibrated against daily discharge, sediments and nitrates, with good agreements between model predictions and field observations. Four hypothetical land‐cover scenarios were applied under current climate conditions (eucalyptus/pine, oak, agriculture/vine and low vegetation). A statistical downscaling of four General Circulation Models, bias‐corrected with ground observations, was carried out for 2021–2040 and 2041–2060, using representative concentration pathway 4.5 scenario. Also, the combined effects of future climate conditions were evaluated under eucalyptus/pine and agriculture/vine scenario. Results for land cover revealed that eucalyptus/pine scenario reduced by 7% the annual water quantity and up to 17% in the summer period. Although climate change has only a modest effect on the reduction of the total annual discharge (?7%), the effect on the water levels during summer was more pronounced, between ?15% and ?38%. This study shows that climate change can affect the provision of hydrological services by reducing dry season flows and by increasing flood risks during the wet months. Regarding the combined effects, future climate may reduce the low flows, which can be aggravated with eucalyptus/pine scenario. In turn, peak flows and soil erosion can be offset. Future climate may increase soil erosion and nitrate concentration, which can be aggravated with agriculture scenario. Results moreover emphasize the need to consider both climate and land‐cover impacts in adaptation and land management options at the watershed scale. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Calc-alkaline rear-arc magmatism in the Fuegian Andes: Implications for the mid-cretaceous tectonomagmatic evolution of southernmost South America

The magmatic arc of the Fuegian Andes is composed mostly of Upper Mesozoic to Cenozoic calc-alkaline plutons and subordinated lavas. To the rear arc, however, isolated mid-Cretaceous monzonitic plutons and small calc-alkaline dykes and sills crop out. This calc-alkaline unit (the Ushuaia Peninsula Andesites, UPA) includes hornblende-rich, porphyritic quartz meladiorites, granodiorites, andesites, dacites and lamprophyres. Radiometric dating and cross-cutting relationships indicate that UPA is younger than the monzonitic suite. The geochemistry of UPA is medium to high K, with high LILE (Ba 500–2000 ppm, Sr 800–1400 ppm), HFSE (Th 7–23 ppm, Nb 7–13 ppm, Ta 0.5–1.1 ppm) and LREE (La 16–51 ppm) contents, along with relatively low HREE (Yb 1.7–1.3 ppm) and Y (9–19 ppm). The similar mineralogy and geochemistry of all UPA rocks suggest they evolved from a common parental magma, by low pressure crystal fractionation, without significant crustal assimilation. A pure Rayleigh fractionation model indicates that 60–65% of crystal fractionation of 60% hornblende + 34% plagioclase + 4% clinopyroxene + 1% Fe-Ti oxide, apatite and sphene (a paragenesis similar of UPA mafic rocks) can explain evolution from lamprophyres to dacites. The UPA has higher LILE, HFSE and LREE, and lower HREE and Y than the calc-alkaline plutons and lavas of the volcanic front. The HREE and Y are lower than in the potassic plutons as well. High concentrations of Th, Nb, Ta, Zr, Hf, LREE and Ce/Pb, and low U/Th, Ba/Th ratios in UPA, even in the least differentiated samples, suggest contributions from subducted sediments to the mantle source. On the other hand, relatively low HREE and Y, high LREE/HREE (La/Yb 11–38) ratios and Nb-Ta contents can be interpreted as mantle metasomatism by partial melts of either subducted garnetiferous oceanic sediment or basalt as well. Additionally, high LILE content in UPA, similar to the potassic plutons, suggests also a mantle wedge previously metasomatized by potassic parental magmas in their route to crustal levels. Therefore, UPA represents a unique suite in the Fuegian arc generated in a multiple hybridized source. UPA generation is related to a transition from normal to flat subduction which additionally caused the widening and landward migration of the magmatic arc, as well as crustal deformation. Rear-arc magmatism endured ca. 22 m.y.; afterwards, calc-alkaline magmatism remained at the volcanic front.     

Observation-based blended projections from ensembles of regional climate models

We consider the problem of projecting future climate from ensembles of regional climate model (RCM) simulations using results from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). To this end, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian space-time model that quantifies the discrepancies between different members of an ensemble of RCMs corresponding to present day conditions, and observational records. Discrepancies are then propagated into the future to obtain high resolution blended projections of 21st century climate. In addition to blended projections, the proposed method provides location-dependent comparisons between the different simulations by estimating the different modes of spatial variability, and using the climate model-specific coefficients of the spatial factors for comparisons. The approach has the flexibility to provide projections at customizable scales of potential interest to stakeholders while accounting for the uncertainties associated with projections at these scales based on a comprehensive statistical framework. We demonstrate the methodology with simulations from the Weather Research & Forecasting regional model (WRF) using three different boundary conditions. We use simulations for two time periods: current climate conditions, covering 1971 to 2000, and future climate conditions under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 emissions scenario, covering 2041 to 2070. We investigate and project yearly mean summer and winter temperatures for a domain in the South West of the United States.     

Chemical and isotopic interpretation of major ion compositions from precipitation: a one-year temporal monitoring study in Wrocław,SW Poland

The chemical compositions (Na⁺, NH₄ ⁺, K⁺, Mg²⁺, Ca²⁺, Cl^?, NO₂ ^?, NO₃ ^?, SO₄ ^2?, HCO₃ ^?) of wet precipitation and nitrogen isotope compositions δ¹⁵N(NH₄ ⁺) were studied from January to December 2010 in Wroc?aw (SW Poland). Results of a principle component analysis show that 82 % of the data variability can be explained by three main factors: 1) F1 (40 %) observed during vegetative season (electrical conductivity, HCO₃ ^?, NO₃ ^?, NO₂ ^?, NH₄ ⁺ and SO₄ ^2?), mainly controlling rainwater mineralization; 2) F2 (26 %) observed during vegetative and heating seasons (K⁺, Ca²⁺ and Mg²⁺), probably representing a combination of two processes: anthropogenic dusts and fertilizers application in agricultural fields, and 3) F3 (16 %) reported mainly during heating season (Na⁺ and Cl^?) probably indicating the influence of marine aerosols. Variations of δ¹⁵N(NH₄ ⁺) from ?11.5 to 18.5?‰ identify three main pathways for the formation of NH₄ ⁺: 1) equilibrium fractionation between NH₃ and NH₄ ⁺; 2) kinetic exchange between NH₃ and NH₄ ⁺; 3) NH₄ ⁺ exchange between atmospheric salts particles and precipitation. The coupled chemical/statistical analysis and δ¹⁵N(NH₄ ⁺) approach shows that while fossil fuels burning is the main source of NH₄ ⁺ in precipitation during the heating season, during the vegetative season NH₄ ⁺ originates from local sewage irrigation fields in Osobowice or agricultural fertilizers.     

Climate change and human impact in a sensitive ecosystem: the Holocene environment of the Northwest Icelandic highland margin

Complex interactions of climate and volcanic activity have shaped the environment of Iceland during the Holocene. Palaeoecological records from Iceland offer a unique look at a Holocene environment that was uninhabited by humans and free of mammal herbivores until about AD 870. We present a new reconstruction of Holocene vegetation and landscape dynamics from a small lake, Barðalækjartjörn, located near the highland margin in Northwest Iceland. A multi‐proxy approach was used to reconstruct vegetation based on pollen and plant macrofossil analysis and landscape stability based on lithological proxies. The record covers the period c. 10 300–200 cal. a BP. For the first two millennia aeolian processes probably played a part in vegetation development. This period is characterized by high input of minerogenic material into the lake and a vegetation assemblage in which plants tolerant of aeolian deposition are prominent. Betula pubescens woodland reached a maximum between c. 7400 and 6500 cal. a BP. Betula nana‐dominated dwarf shrub heath replaced woodland after c. 4000 cal. a BP, following the onset of Neoglaciation. Land use following human settlement caused an environmental shift at the highland margin. Betula pubescens probably disappeared from the vicinity of the lake soon thereafter. Large‐scale soil erosion began at c. 1000 cal. a BP in the wake of human activities, such as introduction of grazing livestock and woodcutting. This study offers an important long‐term perspective of the development of the highland ecosystem under both wholly natural and human‐influenced conditions.