Significance tests for covariate-dependent trends in inhomogeneous spatio-temporal point processes

Modeling and inference for spatial and spatio-temporal point processes is an issue that has been broadly investigated in the last years. Application fields such as forestry, epidemiology and ecology have been the main engine driving such raised interest. The inclusion of spatially varying covariates in the models for the intensity function is becoming of particular interest, but little attention has been paid to testing the significance of such covariates. Testing the significance of covariates is important if one seeks to explain which covariates have an effect in the spatial or spatio-temporal distribution of the point pattern observed. We thus provide practical procedures to build statistical tests of significance for covariates that have an effect on the intensity function of a point pattern. Our approximation focuses on the conditional intensity function, by considering nonparametric kernel-based estimators. We calculate thinning probabilities under the conditions of absence and presence of a covariate and compare them through divergence measures. Based on Monte Carlo experiments, we approximate the statistical properties of our tests under a variety of practical scenarios. An application on testing the significance of a covariate in a spatio-temporal data set on wildfires is also developed.     

A smoothed ANOVA model for multivariate ecological regression

Smoothed analysis of variance (SANOVA) has recently been proposed for carrying out disease mapping. The main advantage of this approach is its conceptual simplicity and ease of interpretation. Moreover, it allows us to fix the combination of diseases of particular interest in advance and to make specific inferences about them. In this paper we propose a reformulation of SANOVA in the context of ecological regression studies. This proposal considers the introduction in a non-parametric way of one (or several) covariate(s) into the model, explaining some pre-specified combinations of the outcome variables. In addition, random effects are also incorporated in order to model geographical variation in the combinations of outcome variables not explained by the covariate. Lastly, the model permits the decomposition of the variance in the set of outcome variables into different orthogonal components, quantifying the contribution of every one of them. The proposed model is applied to the geographical analysis of mortality due to malignant stomach neoplasm among women resident in the city of Barcelona (Spain). The available outcome variables are deaths grouped into two time periods, and a socioeconomic deprivation index is included as a covariate. The model has been implemented through INLA, a novel inference tool for Bayesian statistics.     

Prediction of PM10 and SO2 exceedances to control air pollution in the Bay of Algeciras,Spain

In this paper, the authors apply different classification techniques in order to provide 24 h advance forecasts of the daily peaks of SO₂ and PM10 concentrations in the Bay of Algeciras. K-nearest-neighbours, multilayer neural network with backpropagation and support vector machines (SVMs) are the classification methods used. The aim of this research is to obtain a suitable prediction model that would enable us to predict the peaks of pollutant concentrations in critical meteorological situations caused by the widespread existing industry and population in the area. A resampling strategy with twofold crossvalidation has been applied, using different quality indexes to evaluate the performance of the prediction models. SVM models achieved better true positive rate and accuracy (ACC) quality indexes. Results of ACC index value of 0.795 for PM10 and 0.755 for SO₂ showed the ability of the model to predict peaks and non-peaks correctly.     

Fully probabilistic seismic risk assessment considering local site effects for the portfolio of buildings in Medellín,Colombia

A fully probabilistic seismic risk analysis using a comprehensive approach is conducted for Medellin, the second largest city of Colombia, using a building by building database constructed and complemented from aerial images, considering characteristics such as building use categories, socio-economic levels and replacement values. The seismic hazard used for the analysis corresponds to the most updated study available in the country with the same model that was included in the national building code maps definition. Spectral transfer functions are determined for each of the seismic microzonation zones in order to take into account the dynamic soil response and amplification effects in the risk analysis. Several building types are defined for the city and individual vulnerability functions are assigned to each of them. Risk results are presented in the state of the art metrics such as the loss exceedance curve, probable maximum losses for different return periods, average annual losses and risk maps. The obtained results can be classified by use and socio-economic sectors as well as by structural systems that may help the stakeholders to identify where the risk concentrates.     

Models for reproducing the damage scenario of the Lorca earthquake

A damage scenario modelling is developed and compared with the damage distribution observed after the 2011 Lorca earthquake. The strong ground motion models considered include five modern ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) amply used worldwide. Capacity and fragility curves from the Risk-UE project are utilized to model building vulnerability and expected damage. Damage estimates resulting from different combinations of GMPE and capacity/fragility curves are compared with the actual damage scenario, establishing the combination that best explains the observed damage distribution. In addition, some recommendations are proposed, including correction factors in fragility curves in order to reproduce in a better way the observed damage in masonry and reinforce concrete buildings. The lessons learned would contribute to improve the simulation of expected damages due to future earthquakes in Lorca or other regions in Spain with similar characteristics regarding attenuation and vulnerability.     

Slope instabilities triggered by the 11th May 2011 Lorca earthquake (Murcia,Spain): comparison to previous hazard assessments and proposition of a new hazard map and probability of failure equation

The Lorca Basin has been the object of recent research aimed at studying the phenomena of earthquake-induced landslides and its assessment in the frame of different seismic scenarios. However, it has not been until the 11th May 2011 Lorca earthquakes when it has been possible to conduct a systematic approach to the problem. In this paper we present an inventory of slope instabilities triggered by the Lorca earthquakes which comprises more than 100 cases, mainly rock and soil falls of small size (1–100  \(\hbox {m}^{3}\) ). The distribution of these instabilities is here compared to two different earthquake-triggered landslide hazard maps: one considering the occurrence of the most probable earthquake for a 475-years return period in the Lorca Basin \((\hbox {M}_{\mathrm{w}}=5.0)\) based on both low- and high-resolution digital elevation model (DEM); and a second one matching the occurrence of the \(\hbox {M}_{\mathrm{w}}=5.2\) 2011 Lorca earthquake, which was performed using the higher resolution DEM. The most frequent Newmark displacements related to the slope failures triggered by the 2011 Lorca earthquakes are lower than 2 cm in both the hazard scenarios considered. Additionally, the predicted Newmark displacements were correlated to the inventory of slope instabilities to develop a probability of failure equation. The fit seems to be very good since most of the mapped slope failures are located on the higher probability areas. The probability of slope failure in the Lorca Basin for a seismic event similar to the \(\hbox {M}_{\mathrm{w}}\) 5.2 2011 Lorca earthquake can be considered as very low (0–4 %).     

IUPA: a tool for the evaluation of the general usefulness of practices for adaptation to climate change and variability

A prototype multi-purpose index is proposed for use in the evaluation of practices for adaptation to climate variability and change. The Index of Usefulness of Practices for Adaptation (IUPA) allows the user to assign weights and scores to a set of user-defined evaluation criteria. Individual criterion scores are aggregated into a final index value. Both the final value and the individual parameter scores provide useful information for improved decision making in the context of climate change. An innovative aspect of IUPA is that guidance is given to the user through the inclusion of recommendations on evaluation criteria and criterion-specific weight factors. These have been defined by a panel of experts from the Latin-American and Caribbean Region (LAC). Application of the index is demonstrated for an existing adaptation practice from the Coquimbo Region, Chile. The IUPA tool is recommended for use in the evaluation of adaptation practices in their design, implementation and post-implementation phase. It is practical for a quick first assessment or when limited financial resources are available, making the tool especially useful for practitioners in the developing world. The index is flexible both from the perspective of its construction and use. Additional expert opinions can easily be included in the future versions of the tool.     

Implications of geomorphological research for recent and prehistoric avalanches and related hazards at Huascaran,Peru

Detailed research of superficial deposits below the northern peak of Huascaran (Cordillera Blanca) provides new information on the limits of a paleo-avalanche originating from this mountain. Geomorphological mapping of the sediments identified glacial deposits, deposits from historical rock-debris avalanches and huge boulders from a paleo-avalanche. Schmidt Hammer rock-hardness tests were used to distinguish between the several generations of rock-debris avalanches, but largely failed to distinguish between the much older moraine and the paleo-avalanche sediments. Thus, only the field geomorphological mapping proved to be reliable for identifying the limits of the paleo-avalanche. The limits identified as granite boulders deposited over volcanic rocks were found to extend 30 m further up the opposite valley slope than previously had been mapped. This larger extent implies a greater volume and/or greater mobility for the prehistoric event.